This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
Top Players:
Jordan Murphy, F, Minnesota ($9,300 DK, $8,500 FD): Murphy draws the North Florida Ospreys tonight, which are basically he perfect team to target from a DFS perspective. They play fast (No. 26 in tempo, per KenPom), and sit at just No. 255 in defensive efficiency. They don't have a frontcourt rotation player over 6-foot-8, and are generous to their opponents on the offensive glass. Blowout potential could be the only factor keeping Murphy from a 40-point fantasy effort. He'll be owned by me on both sites.
McKinley Wright, G, Colorado ($8,900 DK, $8,100 FD): Look for a late-night shootout between Colorado and New Mexico, with Colorado checking in with the highest implied point total on the slate. Like Murphy, Wright gets a pretty favorable fantasy environment. The Lobos are No. 11 in tempo, and all the way down at 270 in defensive efficiency. Wright leads the Buffaloes in minutes percentage, offensive rating and usage rate, making him a pretty chalk play in cash games.
Eric Paschall ($7,200 DK, $7,900 FD): Paschall has bumped up his scoring over his last five games, averaging 17.6 points across 36.8 minutes. He has yet to get a double-double despite flirting with it several times, but is a capable passer who typically adds a few blocks or steals to his fantasy totals. I don't believe Penn has a defender capable of defending him, and while pace is working against him, there's some GPP upside. Paschall and the Wildcats are just seven-point road favorites,
Top Players:
Jordan Murphy, F, Minnesota ($9,300 DK, $8,500 FD): Murphy draws the North Florida Ospreys tonight, which are basically he perfect team to target from a DFS perspective. They play fast (No. 26 in tempo, per KenPom), and sit at just No. 255 in defensive efficiency. They don't have a frontcourt rotation player over 6-foot-8, and are generous to their opponents on the offensive glass. Blowout potential could be the only factor keeping Murphy from a 40-point fantasy effort. He'll be owned by me on both sites.
McKinley Wright, G, Colorado ($8,900 DK, $8,100 FD): Look for a late-night shootout between Colorado and New Mexico, with Colorado checking in with the highest implied point total on the slate. Like Murphy, Wright gets a pretty favorable fantasy environment. The Lobos are No. 11 in tempo, and all the way down at 270 in defensive efficiency. Wright leads the Buffaloes in minutes percentage, offensive rating and usage rate, making him a pretty chalk play in cash games.
Eric Paschall ($7,200 DK, $7,900 FD): Paschall has bumped up his scoring over his last five games, averaging 17.6 points across 36.8 minutes. He has yet to get a double-double despite flirting with it several times, but is a capable passer who typically adds a few blocks or steals to his fantasy totals. I don't believe Penn has a defender capable of defending him, and while pace is working against him, there's some GPP upside. Paschall and the Wildcats are just seven-point road favorites, so the game could end up closer than most would believe after a first glance at the matchup.
Noah Horchler ($9,100 DK, $8,200 FD): He's the second-highest priced option on FanDuel, but one I'm most likely fading. While the floor has been high, the ceiling isn't quite there like it is for other players in this tier. I think both Wright and Murphy have a better shot at 50 fantasy points. Among the Power 5 teams he's faced, Horchler put up 31.5 DraftKings points against Florida and 26.5 against Penn State -- his two lowest outputs of the year. While the Minnesota frontcourt isn't 100 percent, health-wise, Murphy & co. should be able to keep him in check.
Matt Rafferty, F, Furman ($10,700 - DraftKings Only): He's the highest priced player on the DraftKings slate, but can he hit value at this cost? Looking at earlier matchups, he produced 40.75 DraftKings points against Loyola-Chicago, and had his second-best fantasy game of the year with 15 points and 17 boards against Villanova (though that one needed overtime). Charleston Southern doesn't have a rotation player above 6-9, and also gives Furman a pace boost, sitting at No. 38 in the country in tempo. Mix that with a defense that lies outside the top-200, and the opportunities are there
Game to Target:
New Mexico vs. Colorado (-5), o/u 166, 9:00 p.m. EST
I would go as far as to say that this game should compose roughly 50 percent of your fantasy lineup, at least on FanDuel where there are only four games to pick from. I discussed McKinley Wright above, but Tyler Bey ($7,100 DK, $7,600 FD) has some appeal as well coming off his highest-scoring fantasy game of the year. The minutes of Namon Wright ($4,500 DK, $5,300) have trended downward of late, while those of D'Shawn Schwartz ($3,600 DK, $5,700 FD) have been on the way up. My expectations are tempered, but Schwartz is one way to fit high-priced studs into your DraftKings GPP lineups. Lucas Siewert ($5,800 DK, $5,900 DK) is just as fine of a play as ever. Don't look too far into his minutes totals against lesser competition of late -- if anything it's a buy-low signal.
On the New Mexico side, much of the strategy revolves around the status of Corey Manigault ($5,400 DK, $6,000 FD). We'll discuss that further in depth below, but because coach Paul Weir runs such a deep rotation, there are no options priced higher than $6,800 on FanDuel. The safest bet for minutes is point guard Anthony Mathis ($5,600 DK, $5,400 FD), who also happens to lead the team in offensive rating and shot percentage. Seems like a pretty safe play at that price. For GPPs, Vladimir Punchuk ($4,700 DK, $5,600 FD) is in consideration, and while he's a regular starter, there's some minutes inconsistencies worth watching. He's one of several player that could get a boost if Manigault sits again.
Game to Fade:
Penn vs. Villanova (-7), o/u 139.5, 7:00 p.m. EST
While Paschall and Phil Booth ($7,000 DK) each get consideration if you're going for balance in cash games, there are simply faster-paced teams with better matchups to target in each tier. The Quakers won't excite anyone with their No. 190-ranked tempo, and they sport a top-100 defense that limits opponents to 30.2 percent shooting from beyond the arc. I still think Villanova takes care of business pretty handily, but won't be aggressively targeting any option in a matchup with the lowest over/under on the slate by nearly eight points. Penn's best player is AJ Brodeur ($8,000 DK, $7,800 FD), who has yet to make his debut in the DFS player pool. In three Power-5 matchups to date, Brodeur had 41.5 DraftKings points against Miami (FL), but just 17.25 against Oregon State and 11.5 against Kansas State. While Nova's defense barely sits inside the top-50, that's a little too inconsistent for me. Antonio Woods ($5,500 FD, $5,600 DK) might be in consideration from purely a salary relief standpoint due to his consistent minutes, but he was under 20 FanDuel points in each of the three aforementioned Power-5 matchups.
Injuries:
Daniel Oturu ($6,200 DK, $7,000 FD): Oturu is dealing with a sprained ankle but is expected to play. The minimum-priced Eric Curry ($3,000 DK, $3,000 FD) had a chance to debut, but it doesn't look like he will. This all means that Jordan Murphy ($9,300 DK, $8,500 FD) can keep up his regular pace, with reserve post minutes likely to come in the form of Matz Stockman ($3,600 DK, $3,800 FD).
Dupree McBrayer ($4,600 DK, $5,800 FD): McBrayer won't play Tuesday due to a death in the family, and it's already been reported Brock Stull ($3,100 DK, $3,000 FD) will enter the starting lineup in his stead. Stull has yet to record 15 fantasy points in a game all year, however, so he's a risky punt play, even in a game with blowout potential.
Darryl Morsell ($5,600 DK): Morsell is dealing with an ankle injury and could be forced to sit against Loyola-Maryland. Should that be the case, it's already been reported that Aaron Wiggins ($5,700 DK) would get the start. Wiggins has actually been more productive of late despite coming off the bench, hence the increase in price. He's seen 30 minutes in back-to-back contests.
Corey Manigault ($5,400 DK, $6,000 FD): Manigault was suspended this weekend due to his role in a pre-game altercation Tuesday against New Mexico St. While he's only started twice in six opportunities this season, he's scored 16 or more points on four separate occasions and recorded a double-double Dec. 1. If Manigault sits, coach Paul Weir has been all over the place with his lineups this year, but Vance Jackson ($7,000 DK, $6,800 FD) and Makuach Maluach ($4,600 DK, $4,600 FD) are both candidates to see extra run.
