This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
Top Players:
Ethan Happ ($9,000 FD, $11,000 DK): Outside of Zion, Happ is as close to matchup-proof as it gets. He took on a top-3 defense Saturday, and produced an impressive 26/10/7 line. Wednesday he gets the No. 86 defense (per KenPom), which also happens to be No. 35 in tempo. While it's worth noting that Illinois shut down Jordan Murphy in their only conference win, that seems to be the outlier, as opposed to the norm. Lock in Happ and don't look back. He'll be at least 50 percent owned on FanDuel, and not far behind on DraftKings.
Markus Howard ($8,800 FD, $9,900 DK): Howard was limited to three minutes due to a back injury just two games ago, but bounced back against Providence on Sunday with 24 points, nine rebounds and three assists. His ceiling is always the highest on the slate considering he's scored 45 or more points (regular, not fantasy) three times this season, and the matchup against DePaul is friendly enough for him to do it again.
Grant Williams ($8,700 FD, $9,800 DK): Conference play hasn't been great to Williams of late, as he's fouled out twice in his last four games. This has resulted in his two lowest FD point totals of the year: 25.4 and 6.7. He draws Vanderbilt on Wednesday, which holds down the paint with a pair of 6-10 forwards in Simi Shittu and Yani Wetzell. While they sit at No. 111 in defensive efficiency and No. 156 in pace (both
Top Players:
Ethan Happ ($9,000 FD, $11,000 DK): Outside of Zion, Happ is as close to matchup-proof as it gets. He took on a top-3 defense Saturday, and produced an impressive 26/10/7 line. Wednesday he gets the No. 86 defense (per KenPom), which also happens to be No. 35 in tempo. While it's worth noting that Illinois shut down Jordan Murphy in their only conference win, that seems to be the outlier, as opposed to the norm. Lock in Happ and don't look back. He'll be at least 50 percent owned on FanDuel, and not far behind on DraftKings.
Markus Howard ($8,800 FD, $9,900 DK): Howard was limited to three minutes due to a back injury just two games ago, but bounced back against Providence on Sunday with 24 points, nine rebounds and three assists. His ceiling is always the highest on the slate considering he's scored 45 or more points (regular, not fantasy) three times this season, and the matchup against DePaul is friendly enough for him to do it again.
Grant Williams ($8,700 FD, $9,800 DK): Conference play hasn't been great to Williams of late, as he's fouled out twice in his last four games. This has resulted in his two lowest FD point totals of the year: 25.4 and 6.7. He draws Vanderbilt on Wednesday, which holds down the paint with a pair of 6-10 forwards in Simi Shittu and Yani Wetzell. While they sit at No. 111 in defensive efficiency and No. 156 in pace (both relatively neutral), it's not the greatest of spots for Williams to break out of his slump. My use is probably limited to GPPs.
Carsen Edwards ($8,600 FD, $9,600 DK): Since a single-digit dud against Michigan State on Jan. 8, Edwards has bounced back with an average of 40.9 FanDuel points over his last three. He gets a tough matchup on paper against an Ohio St. team ranked No. 25 in defense and No. 285 in pace, but this is close to a pick'em game with Purdue on the road. Edwards should thrive in terms of shot volume if we get the back-and-forth affair oddsmakers are expecting. Basically, fantasy owners have to choose between Edwards and Howard, and I like Howard just a little more (provided the back issues don't resurface). If I make 10 lineups, Edwards goes in four, while Howard goes in six. On FanDuel, where "value plays" are tougher to come by, I might skip both and turn to LSU's Tremont Waters instead (see below).
Game to Target:
LSU (-10.5) vs. Georgia, o/u 151, 7:00 p.m. EST
If you're playing on FanDuel, Nevada technically has the highest implied total of the day. I've lost the "pick the right Martin brother" game too many times, though Jordan Caroline ($8,300 FD) continues to be one of college basketball's most underrated players.
Regardless of what site you play, LSU will also be a team worth researching as double-digit home favorites. They draw an inexperienced Georgia team that sits at 91st in defense and 117th in tempo, which makes for a favorable environment on paper. Tremont Waters ($8,000 FD, $8,100 DK) is a perfectly acceptable pivot for any of the superstars mentioned above. He had just 24.4 FanDuel points Saturday, but has averaged 37.1 over the previous five. He took 20 shots the last time he played Georgia on Feb. 24 of last season. If you're a believer in usage rate as a stat indicative of DFS performance, look no further than freshman Naz Reid ($6,400 FD, $6,200 DK). He has as good of a chance to get you 15 points as he does 40, but few in that tier offer that type of ceiling. Lastly, if you need some salary relief, Marlon Taylor ($5,300 FD, $4,300 DK) has been a viable option since moving into the starting five in favor of Ja'vonte Smart ($5,200 FD, $5,300 DK). In his last three games, Taylor has performances 24.0 and 31.9 FanDuel points, and he hasn't been in single digits since November.
Game to Avoid:
TCU (-1.5) vs. Texas, o/u 136.5, 7:00 p.m. EST
There are 16-18 teams on the slate today, depending on which site you play. Both of the teams in this game land in the bottom-5 of implied totals, and it's easy to see why. Both have top-35 defenses, while Texas sits at No. 318 in tempo. TCU technically has above-average tempo, but that and the probability of a close contest are the only positive factors. Texas typically goes 8-9 players deep, which limits the ceiling of stars Kerwin Roach ($7,400 FD, $7,400 DK) and Dylan Osetkowski ($6,900 FD, $6,700 DK). Meanwhile, TCU has been forced to tighten things up after the departure of Jaylen Fisher (knee). RJ Nembhard ($4,200 FD, $3,700 DK) has been completely boom-or-bust. He started the last game after missing the previous one due to illness, but only played 11 minutes. Russell Barlow ($4,000 FD, $3,200 DK), a 6-10 freshman, logged 20 minutes Saturday, effectively burning his redshirt. Kouat Noi ($6,400 FD, $6,100 DK) missed that game due to illness, but will be back Wednesday. The only sure thing about this rotation is heavy usage for Alex Robinson ($8,100 FD, $8,700 DK), but I'll take LSU's Waters in a better matchup at a similar price.
Value Plays:
There's not much happening on the injury front today, so here are a few low-priced options that could be viable on the Wednesday slate.
Trevion Williams, Purdue ($6,000 FD, $5,000 DK): His Fanduel price is roughly appropriate, but I still think he can get 4x on DraftKings. Even with Evan Boudreaux back, Williams has more than proven he deserves minutes in the Purdue frontcourt.
Nate Reuvers, Wisconsin ($5,900 FD, $5,000 DK): Can't afford Ethan Happ? No problem. Reuvers doesn't have the ceiling, but he gets steady minutes and has a great three-point shot for a big man. He's had 20 or more DK points in four of his last five, including a career day against Maryland that resulted in 31.75 fantasy points. He's often the beneficiary when teams commit to consistently doubling Happ.
Kavell Bigby-Williams, LSU ($6,100 FD, $5,300 DK): His price is back up above $5k on DraftKings, but that doesn't mean there isn't still value there. His last five games have performances of 29.25, 49.75 and 39.5 DraftKings points, but also two games of 2.0 and 1.25, the former due to foul trouble. High risk, high reward.
Theo John, Marquette ($6,300 FD, $4,700 DK): This is another DK-only play. John got more touches with Ed Morrow Jr. out, but he's remained active since Morrow's return. He's been good for 25.6 DK points/game over his last four.
Jordan Harris, Georgia ($5,000 FD, $3,700 DK): Harris moved into the starting lineup for Turtle Jackson in Georgia's last game, which resulted in a season-best 31 minutes (and 16.5 DK points). He's in play if he starts again, at least at the DK price.
