This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
We've got two slates that appear worthy of breaking down Wednesday evening, so lets just get right to it!
Main Slate
DraftKings main slate for the evening tips off at 6:30, features 10 games and has $12,000 in total prizes available with $3,000 going to the winner. Six of the 10 games have totals of 150 or greater, while the remaining four games sit at 139.5 or less, so we've got some pretty clear scoring disparity and obvious games to target and/or ignore.
Full disclosure despite that intro, this slate really didn't come together for me. The super high end guys are what they are for a reason, but I didn't love pricing and matchups. This was a struggle to find any real smash spots I feel confident in.
Top Players
Sean East, G, Missouri ($7,500)
The Tigers remain winless in conference and are expected to get beaten down again here, but Florida's 33rd-ranked tempo, per KenPom, means we'll get up and down, and East will again be a volume producer. Since missing two games, he's returned to average 36.0 minutes in his last three, averaging 27.3 points, 3.0 rebounds and 4.7 assists, along with a 33.8 usage rate, while never providing fewer than 35.5 DKP. He did foul out in 26 minutes against Florida previously, so hopefully he chooses to play some softer defense here in an effort to remain on the floor.
Joel Soriano, F, St. John's ($7,200)
Soriano is a player I can't seem to quit. He's got two double-doubles in his last three, and his most recent failure to hit that mark still provided 12 points, seven rebounds and five assists. The usage is under 20 percent, and Soriano is a bit more of a compiler at this point, but that still counts! Butler is undersized outside of Jalen Thomas, who isn't playing 25 minutes nightly, and Soriano took advantage of that in an earlier meeting with 14 points and 12 rebounds. We've got a narrow spread, and both teams expected to top 76 points, so as long as Soriano avoids fouls, I like him to compile once again. Not an elite ceiling, but the decreased price should offer a 4x floor.
Middle Tier
Tyrese Proctor, G, Duke ($5,700)
There's plenty of ambiguity with the Blue Devils here. We don't know if Kyle Filipowski (knee) will play, and Mark Mitchell and Jared McCain aren't in great form. What we do know is they should crush Louisville regardless, and they've got an implied total of 85.5 points. As such, I'm happy to buy in on the talented sophomore who hasn't enjoyed the breakout season I expected. He's looked a touch more like the player we thought he'd be coming into the season, averaging 13.0 points, 2.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists and a 22.7 percent usage rate across 27.0 minutes over his last two after a one-game absence. If Filipowski is out, I expect Duke to go somewhat small, and Proctor to start. Even if that doesn't happen, he's still going to get 25+ minutes in a plus spot at a cheap enough price.
Skyy Clark, G, Louisville ($5,500)
I didn't really want to double-dip in this game, and Louisville likely won't score 70 points, but Clark's form and price were too good to ignore. He's averaging 17.3 points, 3.7 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 1.0 steals over his last three with a 27.6 percent usage rate. He posted a 13-5-4-1 line against Duke previously, good enough for 26.75 DKP, and he should have every opportunity to replicate that.
Bargain Options
Luke O'Brien, F, Colorado ($4,400)
If we accept the four players listed above as sort of a shell to build our lineups around, there's not a lot of reason to shop in the bargain section, as they are all really cheap (so much so you'll have over $6,000 per player remaining). If we want a high end option to pair with that core, however, we need to take one more low-end shot. O'Brien has no upside, but he offers 20 minutes or more as a cheap frontcourt play. Colorado should score 80+, and O'Brien has been worth 16.0 DKP or better in three of four since returning from a two-game absence, with his minutes increasing recently. It's a risk, likely an unnecessary one, but also one that seemingly makes sense.
Zachary Davis, G, South Carolina ($4,300)
This play is out the window if Myles Stute is able to suit up, but that seems unlikely. Davis has been in the Gamecocks' starting lineup for 10 straight and has returned 4x or better just twice. But his minutes are consistent, and with Stute out, he's forced to do more. He's a 6-foot-7 guard that pulled down nine boards over the weekend. In a game with a lower scoring expectation, missed shots should be available for grabbing. A 10-point, five-board line works here
Evening Slate
The evening slate tips at 9:00 and features six games, offering a $3,000 prize pool and $1,000 to the winner, where you only need to take down 351 other lineups. Half of the games offer point totals of 155 or greater, led by a defenseless Alabama team, as the Tide/Rebels game sits at 167.0 points. Here's to hoping this slate offers more obvious options I feel confident in!
Top Players
Ryan Kalkbrenner, F, Creighton ($8,900)
The Bluejays' big three are always under consideration when on the slate, and I'll always side with the frontcourt option if forced to choose. Kalkbrenner hasn't been under 30 DKP in any game during the calendar year and gashed Seton Hall for a 28-point, nine-rebound, seven-block outing in January. The pessimist would point out that game went into double overtime, and there's likely no way we get seven blocks agin. The optimist would remind you of the safe floor, as well as the Pirates' lack of skilled size.
Allen Flanigan, G, Mississippi ($7,500)
I was hoping for a bit of a bigger price break on Flanigan, who hasn't posted 20 DKP in consecutive outings. Even without it, maybe the form is poor enough to keep him from being heavily rostered. Prior to this current funk, he averaged 14.6 points, 6.2 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 1.5 steals, showing a 25.1 perent usage rate while averaging 11.7 shot attempts. The pace of this game is already noted above. Our optimizer loves some of the Rebels secondary pieces, and I don't disagree, but I'll back Flanigan to bounce back in a big way and carry his team in this spot.
Middle Tier
Adam Miller, G, Arizona State ($5,400)
Miller has scored in double-figures in six straight, averaging 14.7 points, 2.3 rebounds, 2.2 assists and 1.2 steals. He was priced at $6,000 on Thursday, and posted a useful 23.5 DKP against Arizona just 11 days ago. What am I missing? The Sun Devils likely won't be competitive, but the pace will still produce scoring. I wanted to target Jaden Bradley here, but his price has risen to uncomfortable levels. Miller appears to be far safer for nearly the same number.
Quincy Guerrier, F, Illinois ($5,400)
There really is no middle tier, or even a lower tier for forwards on this slate, so it looks like a spot where you want to build your lineups around two higher-end options. Call Guerrier a hunch play more than one based in statistical confidence. He's had one game over 20 DKP across his last eight and is averaging just 19.0 minutes in that stretch. We've seen his upside in previous seasons and know Illinois will force tempo, leading to an 83.5 point implied total. It's honestly a 2x floor, but the ceiling could be 5x. He's overdue, so says my gut!
Bargain Options
Brennan Rigsby, G, Oregon ($4,700)
I went to this well over the weekend, and it worked, so we'll return. Rigsby has three games all season in single-digit fantasy points. He hasn't started any of the Ducks' last nine games, but still averages 21.8 minutes over those nine outings. He posted a meager 10.75 DKP agaisnt Oregon State last time these two met, still a decent enough 2.3x return for this low number, and it's a game where he went 0-for-6 from the floor. Yes, he grabbed seven boards there, which also isn't replicable. Both sides there should balance out, and we'll flirt with a 3x return.
Jamarion Sharp, F, Mississippi ($4,200)
A complete dart throw here, but this late in the season, we have so few players moving into opportune roles. Sharp hasn't started any of the last 12 games, and has four games with seven minutes or less, so the floor is almost a zero. But he's also got five games with 18.5 DKP or better, so there's a rare ceiling that's possibly available when considering the game's pace. I'd prefer to live in the $5,000 tier or greater, but if forced to pay down, one can live with this risk.
