Final Four Preview: Gonzaga vs. UCLA

UCLA Bruins, East Region, No. 11 Seed 

Backcourt: The Bruins bread and butter is their four-guard starting lineup, three of which go 6-foot-6. Johnny Juzang has put this team on his back, not just in the tournament but throughout February through volume, and is averaging 21.6 ppg on 17.6 shot attempts in the Bruins five-game run. Jules Bernard provides inconsistent offense (10.8 ppg, two of five games combining for 10 points) but support on the glass (7.0 rpg), while Jaime Jaquez stretches defenses (39.3 percent 3-point regular season, 46.7 percent in tournament). He's averaging 14.2 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 2.8 apg and 1.6 spg during this stretch, and his ability to provide floor spacing makes up for the Bruins' lack of size. Point guard Tyger Campbell remains more of a facilitator, but he was key in UCLA's two wins last week, garnering four steals while scoring in double-digits in both outings after not doing so in any of the team's prior eight games. There isn't a plan B behind any of these four, with reserve David Singleton playing 14.0 minutes over the last five. Gonzaga has plenty of size and length across it's core five, but there's a chance Corey Kispert gets run around, leading to some defensive chasing and open looks for the Bruins lead four.

Frontcourt: Cody Riley. That's it. We can label guys as guards or forwards all we want, but the Bruins have one rotational option north of 6-foot-6, and it's the 6-foot-9, 255 pound Riley, who has to stay out of foul trouble and provide some form of defense against Gonzaga's Drew Timme, as well as a handful  of rebounds. Unfortunately, he fouled out in 18 minutes against Michgan's size, and with Gonzaga's frontcourt mobility, this doesn't appear to set up well. Riley averaged 9.8 ppg and 5.2 rpg during the regular season, but I think the Bruins would be happy with 25ish minutes more than anything else. Kenneth Nwuba played a season-high 20 minutes in the Elite 8 and would likely spell Riley, but he has yet to score in the tournament. Simply put, this is a huge matchup problem for the Bruins. But size was an issue against the Wolverines too, and UCLA was still able to play its game.

X-Factor: Playing with house money. No one expects the Bruins to compete here, and as such, they should come in as loose as possible and play free. On the other side, most are already discussing Gonzaga as one of the all-time greatest teams. The Bulldogs have had one game decided by less than 10 points this season, coming all the way back on December 2 against West Virginia. What happens if UCLA's defense limits the Bulldogs, and Gonzaga is put in a pressure situation? No one knows. Am I likely grasping at straws? Perhaps. But we know what both of these teams are, and while you can argue UCLA needs to be perfect to win, they shouldn't have any pressure to perform given they've already exceeded minimal expectations.

Who They Beat To Get Here:

Michigan State, 86-80

 BYU, 73-62

 Abeline Christian, 67-47

 Alabama, 88-78

 Michigan, 51-49

They'll Win If: They control tempo. This can't be more obvious. The Bruins play at the nation's 19th slowest pace. They've held three of their five tournament opponents to 62 or fewer points, and the two teams that topped that did so in overtime. The Zags meanwhile check in with the sixth-fastest tempo, which has led to a nation-leading 91.6 points per game. UCLA has no chance at scoring that much, but they've allowed 80+ only five times to date, a number Gonzaga has reached in 27 of 30. Mick Cronin knows defense, and if they can keep Gonzaga in the low-to-mid 70s, there's a chance this plays out closer than expected.

PREDICTION: Chance. Hope. Maybe. If. Those were words I used to write up the Bruins here. I want to sell an upset, but I'm an accountant by day, not a salesman. Maybe Juzang gets some support and Jaquez or Bernard get hot outside, and the Bruins defense can create some turnovers and make Gonzaga uncomfortable. But I thought USC's length and athleticism could challenge the Zags in the Elite 8, and that was out of the window before the first media timeout. Heck of a run for the Bruins, but it ends here. Gonzaga 83-68.

-Chris Bennett

Gonzaga Bulldogs, West Region No. 1 seed 

Backcourt: While the frontcourt drives the scoring for the team, Gonzaga's backcourt is still filled with several contributors who help drive the program's efficient offense. Freshman Jalen Suggs was named WCC Newcomer of the Year and has averaged 14.0 points, 5.5 rebounds and 4.5 assists in 28.4 minutes per game this season. He's shot just 20.0 percent from beyond the arc during the NCAA Tournament but has still averaged 12.3 points across the past four matchups and posted his second double-double of the season in Tuesday's Elite Eight win over USC. Andrew Nembhard was named the WCC Sixth Man of the Year but has joined the starting lineup for 11 of the past 12 games. The junior has been somewhat quiet to begin the NCAA Tournament outside of his performance against Creighton in which he recorded 17 points and eight assists, but he has still averaged 8.8 points, 4.3 assists and 2.3 assists in 34.3 minutes per game across his past four appearances. Joel Ayayi had a somewhat slow start to the season, but he's now scored in double figures in nine of his last 11 appearances and ranks second on the team with 7.1 rebounds per game this year. Although he was held to just nine points against the Trojans, he shot 80 percent from the floor during the win and has been a consistent force for the Zags.

Frontcourt: Gonzaga put together the first undefeated regular season in college basketball since Kentucky did it in 2014-2015. The Zags' frontcourt contributors have been a significant factor behind their success. Drew Timme leads the Bulldogs with 19.0 points and 7.2 rebounds per game this year, and he's scored in double figures in all but one of his 30 appearances this year. He's been especially dominant in the last three games, as he's averaged 25.0 points, 8.0 rebounds and 4.0 assists in 30.7 minutes per contest. Corey Kispert has been right behind Timme in the scoring column this year and is averaging 18.9 points per game. Kispert took charge with a team-high 23 points in the first round of the NCAA Tournament against Norfolk State and has averaged 17.3 points and 5.8 rebounds in 32.3 minutes per game during the Big Dance. Although Anton Watson has been replaced by Nembhard in the starting lineup over the second half of the year, Watson is shooting 63.8 percent from the floor this season and has proven to be a capable contributor when he's needed.

X-Factor: Timme. Gonzaga's star center was named the West Region MVP due to his stellar play throughout the first four rounds of the tournament. The Zags have won their last three games by an average of 17.7 points, and Timme has been remarkably consistent by topping 20 points in each of those three matchups. On paper, USC's efficient defense matched up well against Gonzaga, but Timme still dropped a team-high 23 points against the Trojans and recorded three steals. The sophomore ranked 12th in the nation this year in effective field goal percentage, per KenPom, and he's been a key reason why Gonzaga has averaged 91.6 points per game this year.

Who They Beat to Get Here: 

Norfolk State, 98-55

Oklahoma, 87-71

Creighton, 83-65

USC, 85-66

They'll Win If: they continue to control the boards. While Gonzaga's high-scoring offense has been the highlight of the team's success this year, the driving factor behind the efficiency has been the team's ability to haul in rebounds on both ends of the floor. Even if the Zags are having an off night from the floor, their ability to control the boards has allowed them to get second and third chances throughout the season. In the Elite Eight, the Bulldogs faced USC and its sixth-ranked defense in terms of efficiency (per KenPom), but the Zags cruised to a comfortable 19-point victory by beating the Trojans in rebounds, 41-29.

PREDICTION 

Just two games stand between Gonzaga and history. The Bulldogs have been the most efficient offense in the nation this year, and their defense is also more efficient than UCLA's. Slow-paced teams like the Bruins have struggled to keep up with Gonzaga all season, and that trend will likely continue during the Final Four matchup. Gonzaga's ability to create second and third chances on the offensive end of the floor should allow the team to control the tempo. While UCLA won high-scoring contests against Michigan State and Alabama in overtime earlier in the NCAA Tournament, the Bruins brought in double-digit rebounds on the offensive side of the ball in each of those games and should struggle to find that kind of success against Gonzaga. Coming off a strong showing against USC, I expect the Zags to knock off another Pac-12 opponent to advance to the national championship.

-Jason Shebilske