National Championship DFS Picks: College Basketball Plays for Monday, April 7

National Championship DFS Picks: College Basketball Plays for Monday, April 7

This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.

Our final game of the season has arrived, and on paper, it looks like a tightly-contested battle between Purdue and Connecticut. Both DraftKings and FanDuel are offering showdown games to close out the year. FanDuel has a $40,000 total prize pool in their big tournament with $10,000 to first place, while DraftKings is really cranking things up, offering a $150,000 total prize pool and $50,000 to first place and seven additional $1,000 or better prizes.

This is going to be a really challenging showdown contest to differentiate in, as neither team is particularly deep. Seven Huskies saw 10+ minutes Saturday night with six of those topping 20. Purdue's rotation seems even tighter, with only six players playing 16+ minutes Saturday, four of which logged 33+ minutes. Effectively, we have, at best, 13 players to choose from for five or six roster spots depending on site.

For those unfamiliar with showdown slates, FanDuel allows for more different combinations and a less likely chance we see a plethora of identical rosters. There's an MVP that makes 2x fantasy points, a star at 1.5x points and a pro that makes 1.2x points. Lineups are then rounded out with two more options at regular scoring, and players are priced the same across all roster spots. DraftKings, however, only allows one multiplier spot, with your captain making 1.5x  points and five other shots at regular scoring, but you'll have to pay a premium, as captain pricing is 1.5x higher. On-court positions mean nothing here.

With no pricing change, it's easier to use Zach Edey ($13,000) at FanDuel, as he's only $1,000 more expensive than the next highest option. Just plug him in to a multiplier spot and you'll have $9,250 remaining to build around. The cheapest of these 13 players we're considering is $7,000, so there's plenty of flexibility. It's not as clear at DraftKings, where Edey will cost a massive $20,400 as your captain and $13,600 just to get him on your roster. We're going to list FanDuel prices, but target strategy for a DraftKings build here.

This intro has dragged on, so I won't belabor this. But, I want to close with a quick thank you for reading all season! College Hoops DFS is certainly a niche. We had some success sprinkled in with some failure, but will continue to grind and improve. We'll see you in November.

Captain

Cam Spencer, Connecticut ($14,400/$9,600 DK, $10,500 FD)

With the captain spot, you have to ask yourself if you're shooting for the stars or if you want stability that gets you a nice base. I think we can say yes to both with Spencer, as his diverse stat lines lend themselves to a high floor and high ceiling. He's posted at least 35 DKP in three straight and has eight games on the year in which he's topped 40 fantasy points. Overall, he's averaging 13.8 points, 6.8 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 2.0 steals in the tournament.

Contrarian Play: Braden Smith, Purdue ($13,800/$9,200 DK, $11,000 FD)

If there's some recency bias, Smith may be the highest-priced option that's omitted from the majority of builds. I think he's going to struggle to score against the Husky guards that are much bigger, and he looked pretty bad against North Carolina State, going 1-for-9 from the floor. Scoring isn't Smith's thing, however, as he's averaging just 7.7 points across Purdue's last seven games. What's overlooked is the fact he's putting up 5.6 rebounds and 8.9 assists in that stretch. Smith has been a high-upside fantasy asset throughout the year with 10 games of 40 or more fantasy points, two of which he topped 50 in. 

Utility

Tristen Newton, Connecticut ($15,300/$10,200 DK, $11,500 FD)

The four options after Edey are where we want to live on this slate for me, and trying some combination of three of them between the captain seat and utility is challenging but doable. Newton isn't shooting it well right now, going just 4-of-17 over his last two, but he's averaging 10.6 shot attempts over his last nine, so we know he'll get his chances. Mix in 5.0 rebounds and 7.2 assists in that stretch, and the floor is very safe and worth paying for. He's also better than an 80 percent free throw shooter, and we know he'll have the ball in his hand late, either to make a winning play or salt the game away at the stripe.

Alex Karaban, Connecticut ($12,300/$8,200 DK, $10,000 FD)

The price is a touch high at FanDuel, but I like this spot for Karaban. At 6-foot-8, 220 pounds, he's big enough to battle inside with Trey Kaufman-Renn who averages just 18.8 minutes per game. Karaban shined Saturday with 14 points, eight rebounds and two blocks, and while the scoring can be inconsistent, I think it trends up Monday with his size also leading to a similar rebounding and block line.

Fletcher Loyer, Purdue ($9,900/$6,600 DK, $9,000 FD)

Lance Jones has been my popular target over the last two weeks as the DFS slates have shrunk, and while I do still like him, it feels like Loyer is a bit more off the radar. He's averaged 9.3 shot attempts over the last four games, resulting in 12.5 points, nearly two more than his season totals. He's doing a touch more peripherally too, chipping in 2.3 rebounds and 3.5 assists. At 6-foot-4, he matches up okay with UConn's taller guards, and with a 44.7 percent 3-point success rate, Purdue needs him to be hot to compete.

Hassan Diarra, Connecticut ($8,100/$5,400 DK, $7,500 FD)

Samson Johnson is the lowest-priced pay-down option we can consider, and I think that's going to make him incredibly popular. There's certainly a game script where he's pressed into bigger minutes to defend Edey if Donovan Clingan is in foul trouble. I'm willing to fade that popularity and target Diarra at a slightly higher price tag. He's off his worst game since February 20th, failing to score while being hampered with four fouls. That's indicative of Alabama's pace and smaller guards. Purdue has the same smaller guards, but not the pace. If Connecticut is in foul trouble, there's a scenario where the Huskies go small, boosting Diarra's chances. The fact he went 0-for-4 Saturday is concerning; maybe he wasn't seeing it well in the football stadium, but he still reached double-digit fantasy points and can bounce back for more.

One final note. It's not outlandish to take a $1,000 punt play to get as many high-end options into your builds as possible. Maybe consider a walk on and/or senior from the team you think wins, and if they win comfortably, perhaps they don't turn in a complete zero. Also, don't feel obligated to spend your entire budget. The easiest way to make sure you have a different lineup is to leave some salary remaining

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Chris Bennett plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: k30kittles, DraftKings: k30kittles.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Chris Bennett
Bennett covers baseball, college football and college basketball for RotoWire. Before turning to fantasy writing, he worked in scouting/player development for the Atlanta Braves and Montreal Expos. He's also a fan of the ACC.
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