This article is part of our NCAA Tournament Preview series.
East Region
West Region
Midwest Region
South Region
The Midwest Region is highlighted by Illinois -- the top seed in the region and third overall team on the Selection Committee's seeding list. It's difficult to find many teams playing as well as them entering the NCAA Tournament, as the Fighting Illini have reeled off seven straight wins, including four against top-two seeds in Michigan, Iowa and Ohio State (twice). One team that can make a strong argument is the second seed in the region, Houston. Although it doesn't get near the same amount of attention playing in the American Athletic Conference, the Cougars have also won seven straight and defeated Cincinnati by 37 points in the AAC final.
Illinois and Houston are joined by a few other conference tournament champions among the middle seeds that will look to continue their momentum and create a Cinderella story to remember. One team that has done that before is No. 8 Loyola Chicago, and they'll look to see if they can relive old memories after rolling through the Missouri Valley Conference. Meanwhile, No. 12 Oregon State is one of the most unlikely teams to make the dance, having been picked to finish dead last in the Pac-12 preseason media poll. The Beavers pulled off three consecutive upsets in the conference tournament to make it in the dance for the first time since 2016.
Here's a closer look at the breakdown of players and matchups as we preview who is most likely to represent
East Region
West Region
Midwest Region
South Region
The Midwest Region is highlighted by Illinois -- the top seed in the region and third overall team on the Selection Committee's seeding list. It's difficult to find many teams playing as well as them entering the NCAA Tournament, as the Fighting Illini have reeled off seven straight wins, including four against top-two seeds in Michigan, Iowa and Ohio State (twice). One team that can make a strong argument is the second seed in the region, Houston. Although it doesn't get near the same amount of attention playing in the American Athletic Conference, the Cougars have also won seven straight and defeated Cincinnati by 37 points in the AAC final.
Illinois and Houston are joined by a few other conference tournament champions among the middle seeds that will look to continue their momentum and create a Cinderella story to remember. One team that has done that before is No. 8 Loyola Chicago, and they'll look to see if they can relive old memories after rolling through the Missouri Valley Conference. Meanwhile, No. 12 Oregon State is one of the most unlikely teams to make the dance, having been picked to finish dead last in the Pac-12 preseason media poll. The Beavers pulled off three consecutive upsets in the conference tournament to make it in the dance for the first time since 2016.
Here's a closer look at the breakdown of players and matchups as we preview who is most likely to represent the Midwest region.
The Favorites
No. 1 Illinois – Illinois will likely be the most popular pick besides Gonzaga to win it all and with good reason -- the Fighting Illini enter March Madness on a seven-game win streak that was sealed with an overtime victory over Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship. They feature arguably the best duo in college basketball this season in Ayo Dosunmu and Kofi Cockburn, who combined to average over 38 points and 15 boards per game. Freshman Andre Curbelo has also emerged as a legitimate third option for Illinois. Its a well-balanced program that is one of only three teams to rank in the top-10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, per KenPom.
No. 2 Houston – Houston is an easy team to overlook considering it doesn't play in a power-5 conference and hasn't garnered much national attention as a result. However, the experienced Kelvin Sampson has his team playing exceptionally well, led by a trio of quality players in Quentin Grimes, Marcus Sasser and DeJon Jarreau who are all averaging double figures. The big question mark is how the Cougars will handle better competition, with their best win being over sixth-seeded Texas Tech by 11 points.
No. 3 West Virginia – The Mountaineers have had an inconsistent season, coming close to upsetting top overall seed Gonzaga en route to an 8-2 start, before starting post-player Oscar Tshiebwe left the team and eventually transferred to Kentucky. The Mountaineers have gone 10-7 since and have struggled to defend the paint, but Taz Sherman has emerged as a major contributor during conference play and gives West Virginia a lethal trio to go along with Derek Culver and Miles McBride. WVU enters the NCAA Tournament having lost three of its last four -- to top-seed Baylor and twice to Oklahoma State (once without Cade Cunningham).
No. 4 Oklahoma St. – Speaking of the Cowboys, the fourth seed in the Midwest features the likely top pick in the 2021 NBA Draft in Cade Cunningham who averaged 23.7 points and six rebounds in the Big 12 Tournament. They came up just short in the final to Texas, but a semifinal upset over Baylor shows their high ceiling and will make them a trendy dark horse pick. The main areas holding them back this year have been turnovers (most in the Big 12) and finding a reliable second option behind Cunningham.
Cinderella Watch
No. 11 Syracuse – Syracuse was in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament but played much better over the last month of the season, finishing 6-3 before narrowly losing to Virginia in the ACC Tournament. Led by top scorer Buddy Boeheim (17.1 ppg), the Orange have a trio of efficient scorers and have enough firepower offensively to make a run. All but one of their rotation players are at least 6-5, and their length and zone can give opposing teams fits.
No. 13 Liberty – Liberty has the potential to keep its first-round matchup with Oklahoma State competitive late to have a chance at pulling off the upset. Its offensive efficiency ranks ahead of the Cowboys (52nd for Liberty, 54th for Oklahoma State according to KenPom), and the Flames play at one of the slowest tempos of any team in the country, which can help keep games close. Although they play a small lineup, that shouldn't be a big factor here.
Biggest Bust
No. 3 West Virginia – The Mountaineers have struggled during March Madness, having not made it past the Sweet 16 since 2010. That's a long stretch for a team that's been a five seed or better five times since then. In fact, they were a three seed back in 2016 as well and lost badly to Stephen F. Austin. Morehead State would have to play their best to pull off the upset, but even if West Virginia is able to get through them, they Mountaineers will have their hands full with either San Diego State or Syracuse.
First Round Upset
No. 10 Rutgers over No. 7 Clemson – In terms of seeding this would be an upset, but the oddsmakers have Rutgers as a slight favorite. Clemson comes into the tournament without much momentum, having lost to 10-17 Miami Florida in the first round of the ACC Tournament. Aamir Simms is the only offensive threat for the Tigers and Rutgers should be able to defend him well with Myles Johnson. Led by efficient wing player Ron Harper, the Scarlet Knights have done a good job of taking care of teams of this level, and I don't see Clemson being able to put up enough points to pull out the victory.
Player to Watch
Cameron Krutwig, C, Loyola Chicago – Krutwig was a starter as a freshman in Loyola's Final Four run back in 2018, and his role has heavily increased since then. He's as efficient as they come -- shooting 58 percent from the floor with five double-doubles, while also leading the team in assists. The MVC's Player of the Year also plays an integral role in the Ramblers having the top-ranked defense in the country (per KenPom's efficiency metric). He'll have an intriguing first round matchup with Georgia Tech big man Moses Wright, who also leads his team in points.
Sweet 16 Picks
No. 1 Illinois – Illinois gets the toughest of the 16 seeds in Drexel, but the real challenge comes in the second round if they play Loyola Chicago. A legitimate threat as an eight seed with a stiff defense and a track record as a successful underdog in the tourney, the Fighting Illini should be on high-alert and will need to bring their best to get through.
No. 4 Oklahoma State – I discussed Liberty's potential to pull off the upset earlier, but ultimately the Cowboys should pull away late. A matchup with Tennessee is intriguing, as the Vols possess a top-5 defense and did knock off Kansas in January. However, they've really struggled on the offensive end, and having a star in Cunningham should be enough for Oklahoma State to advance.
No. 11 Syracuse - Syracuse is the most likely team in the region to outperform their seed by multiple rounds, as they start off by only being a slight underdog to San Diego State. The Aztecs went through the Mountain West Conference with only a few hiccups, but there's nobody in that conference that can match Syracuse's talent. It would be interesting to get a showdown with two legendary coaches in Jim Boeheim and Bob Huggins in the second round.
No. 2 Houston – Cleveland State had a nice run to get through the Horizon league tournament to make it to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2009, but its run will end to Houston. The Cougars get a soft matchup in the second round with either Clemson or Rutgers -- two teams that lack the offensive firepower needed to pull off this level of an upset.
Final Four Pick
No. 1 Illinois – I know it's boring and easy to go with the chalk, but it's difficult to imagine Illinois not getting through to the Final Four. In a potential Sweet Sixteen matchup with Oklahoma State, Dosunmu has been just as good as Cunningham, and the Illini have more depth to outlast them. Even if Dosunmu or Cockburn are off or get into foul trouble along the way, Giorgi Bezhanishvili has been great off the bench in relief of Cockburn, and Trent Frazier and Da'Monte Williams have been reliable three-point options in the event of double-teams.
