NCAA Tournament Preview: West Region

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In March, if you want to be the best, you have to beat the best. That's true for all teams not named Gonzaga in the West Region, as the Bulldogs seek to become the first undefeated team to win a national championship since Indiana accomplished the feat during the 1975-76 season. The West Region is also the only quadrant in the bracket with only one Big Ten team out of the nine schools from the conference that made the tournament. There's upset potential among some of the middle seeds in the region, as No. 12 Cal-Santa Barbara matches up well against No. 5 Creighton, while No. 3 Kansas and No. 4 Virginia will enter the tournament after withdrawing from their respective conference tournaments due to COVID-19 concerns.

The Favorites

No. 1 Gonzaga – The Zags rolled through the lackluster WCC over the second half of the season, but the team faced several high-profile opponents across the first several weeks of the year. Using a combination of the most efficient offense in the nation combined with stellar defense, Gonzaga had little trouble going through opponents like Iowa, Kansas and Virginia, all of whom round out the top four teams in the region. The team enters the NCAA Tournament as the first undefeated team since Kentucky went undefeated during the 2014-15 regular season, and the Bulldogs are rightfully the favorites to take home the crown this year.

No. 2 Iowa – Iowa enters the NCAA Tournament as perhaps the most battle-tested team in the region after spending the year in the incredibly deep Big Ten. The Hawkeyes won eight of their 14 Quad 1 matchups this year and five of their seven Quad 2 contests. They had a disappointing end to the year after losing to Illinois in the Big Ten Tournament semifinals, while the Fighting Illini went on to win the conference tournament and secure a No. 1 seed in the Midwest Region. Iowa's production runs through the frontcourt combo of Wooden Award favorite Luka Garza (23.7 ppg, 8.8 rpg) and Joe Wieskamp (14.7 ppg, 6.6 rpg).

No. 3 Kansas – The Jayhawks began the season with a 12-point loss to Gonzaga, but the team rattled off eight consecutive wins against some tough opponents to close out the calendar year. The program had the highest number of Quad 1 matchups (15) of any team in the region and finished 7-8 during those contests. Kansas was forced to withdraw from the Big 12 Tournament due to COVID-19 concerns, and the team will reportedly travel to Indianapolis without three players, although the names of those players haven't yet been released. The Jayhawks boast the most efficient defense of any team in the region, per KenPom. The team was forced to play without Big 12 Most Improved Player David McCormack (13.4 ppg, 6.6 rpg) during the Big 12 Tournament after he didn't travel with the Jayhawks due to COVID-19 protocols. The center is expected to return for the NCAA Tournament despite the lingering COVID-19 concerns within the program.

No. 4 Virginia – Another team that was forced to withdraw from its conference tournament due to COVID-19 concerns is Virginia. Coach Tony Bennett said that the team would have likely been forced to withdraw if its COVID-19 cases would have occurred one day later, but the program will instead alter its preparation and depart for Indianapolis on Friday, one day before the Cavaliers' first-round matchup against Ohio. The Cavaliers have an efficient offense, but the team boasts the slowest tempo of any program in the nation, according to KenPom. Virginia went through a three-game skid at the end of February but finished the season with a 13-4 conference record prior to the team's early exit from the ACC Tournament.

Cinderella Watch

No. 12 Cal-Santa Barbara – Cal-Santa Barbara earned its first NCAA Tournament berth since 2011 by winning the Big West Tournament with double-digit margins of victory in the semifinals and finals. The Gauchos have won 18 of their last 19 games heading into the NCAA Tournament and will face off against No. 5 Creighton. The team ranks 26th in KenPom's experience metric and has several upperclassmen who transferred from larger programs, led by Oregon State transfer and redshirt senior, JaQuori McLaughlin (16.2 ppg, 5.2 apg, 3.4 rpg, 1.6 spg).

No. 7 Oregon – Oregon is the third-most experienced team of any program in the region, coming in at 33rd on KenPom's experience metric. Several upperclassmen were part of the 2019 NCAA Tournament, when the 12-seed Ducks advanced to the Sweet 16. The 2020-21 version of the Ducks won 10 of their last 11 regular-season contests and entered the Pac-12 Tournament as the No. 1 seed before losing to Oregon State in the semifinals. Oregon finished with a losing record (2-3) in Quad 1 matchups but went 7-1 against Quad 2 opponents. The team will have to face VCU's staunch defense in the first round before potentially facing Iowa in the second round, but the Ducks feature several players who are used to the bright lights in March.

Biggest Bust

No. 4 Virginia – The 2020-21 college basketball season has been incredibly unique and filled with many challenges, and the Cavaliers are dealing with COVID-19 issues that forced them to withdraw from the ACC Tournament. Coach Tony Bennett revealed Sunday that most of the team will quarantine until Thursday. The Cavaliers will spend the first part of the week preparing with virtual team meetings and hope to hold a team practice Thursday before making the trip to Indianapolis on Friday, one day ahead of Saturday's matchup against Ohio. Virginia has been one of the most efficient teams in the nation on both sides of the ball this year, but they have the slowest tempo of any team in the country by a considerable margin. Following a layoff of over a week, Virginia will be facing a Bobcats squad in the first round that also has an efficient offense, and the Cavaliers could struggle to keep pace if they get off to a cold start.

First Round Upset

No. 12 Cal-Santa Barbara over No. 5 Creighton – As stated above, the Gauchos have won 18 of their last 19 games, although the team only played six Quad 2 teams this year and went 2-4 against those opponents. The Bluejays had a very different finish to their season, as they looked completely outmatched during a 73-48 loss to Georgetown in the Big East Tournament semifinals. An area that could make the difference in the matchup is rebounding, as Creighton struggled mightily in that area against Georgetown. The Bluejays were out-rebounded 49-33 against Georgetown and could struggle against the Gauchos, who are an above-average team on the boards. Cal-Santa Barbara is meeting Creighton during a time when the Bluejays are sputtering, and the Gauchos could secure their second NCAA Tournament win in program history if Creighton continues to struggle.

Player to Watch

Luka Garza, C, Iowa – If there's one player in all of college basketball who could nearly singlehandedly dash Gonzaga's hopes of an undefeated season, it's Garza. The Wooden Award frontrunner led players from all Power 5 schools with 23.7 points per game this year despite playing in arguably the toughest conference in the nation, and he closed out the season with double-doubles in four of his last seven games. After covering the Big Ten all year, continually touting Garza's achievements begins to sound like a broken record, but the 6-11 senior has the ability to be a total game changer and is sure to leave it all on the court to close out his collegiate career.

Sweet 16 Picks

No. 1 Gonzaga – The Bulldogs will face a conference champion during the first round in Appalachian State or Norfolk State, but those two teams have gone just 1-4 in Quad 1 and Quad 2 matchups this season. Assuming Gonzaga advances to the second round, both Oklahoma and Missouri have faltered late in the season and should struggle to match up against the undefeated Bulldogs. The top-seeded Zags have potentially the easiest path to the Sweet 16 in this year's tournament, and the team looks poised for a deep run.

No. 12 Cal-Santa Barbara – Although any team in the region will have trouble getting past Gonzaga, the Gauchos have a plausible road to the Sweet 16 against the faltering Bluejays followed by a potential matchup with Virginia or Ohio in the second round. Cal-Santa Barbara has a lack of tournament experience, but the team full of upperclassmen has been productive during the regular season recently, and the Gauchos could be on their way to their first Sweet 16 through their efficient shooting and production on the boards.

No. 3 Kansas – Assuming the Jayhawks remain healthy and keep their core rotation intact to begin the NCAA Tournament, their staunch defense will likely be able to match up with No. 14 Eastern Washington, who doesn't have any Quad 1 or Quad 2 wins this year. Assuming USC takes care of Wichita State or Drake in the first round, the Trojans present a tougher test for Kansas. However, the Trojans have lost four of their last eight games, while Kansas enters the tournament having won eight of their last nine. Despite the COVID-19 uncertainty within the program, the Jayhawks could be on their way to their third Sweet 16 appearance within the last four NCAA Tournaments.

No. 2 Iowa – Iowa will meet Grand Canyon in the first round after the Antelopes were regular-season and tournament champions in the WAC. Although the Hawkeyes don't have stellar defense against three-pointers, they match up well with the Antelopes, who shoot just 32.2 percent from the floor. Although the experienced Ducks could present a challenge in the second round if they knock off VCU, Iowa could be poised for a trip to the Sweet 16 led by Luka Garza and Joe Wieskamp.

Final Four Pick

No. 1 Gonzaga – Plain and simple, the Zags are the favorites to win the national championship following their undefeated season, and they've beaten each of the other favorites in the West Region this year. Don't let Gonzaga's WCC schedule fool you. The team's high-octane offense has stood the test against several prominent opponents, and the team has won 14 Quad 1 and Quad 2 matchups this year. In a region filled with several question marks in an unprecedented year, Gonzaga looks poised for a deep -- and potentially historic -- tournament run in 2021.