Sweet 16 Preview: Midwest Region

MIDWEST REGION SWEET 16

Site: Cleveland
Tip-off: Thursday

The Midwest Region opened the NCAA Tournament with perennial powerhouses as the top seeds in Kentucky and Kansas, but the region as a whole seemed the weakest top to bottom. Entering the tourney, Vegas had Kentucky right around even odds to win the title, and the No. 1 overall seed looked impressive in its first two games with double-digit wins over Hampton and Cincinnati. All eyes will be on the Wildcats this weekend as they pursue perfection and look to put themselves on the throne of college basketball.

While the Wildcats rolled in the opening weekend, the No. 2-seeded Kansas Jayhawks were much less impressive as they lost their second game to in-state little brother, Wichita State. The Shockers were a popular upset pick, but it still was quite a surprise after the Jayhawks won their 11th consecutive Big 12 title. While Kansas will watch from home Thursday, it will be No. 5 West Virginia representing the Big 12 instead, as the Mountaineers survived the classic 12-5 upset with a win over No. 12 Buffalo, followed by an upset of their own over No. 4 Maryland.
Some have speculated that Kentucky's best chance to lose in this regional will be in an Elite Eight matchup against Notre Dame, a team that gets Wichita State in the Sweet 16 after beating No. 14 Northeastern and No. 6 Butler in their first two games. Other than Wichita State and West Virginia advancing, the region saw no other upsets. It was strictly chalk in the Midwest, which in comparison to other regions (South, East) was vanilla. Hopefully we'll see some fireworks this weekend.

No. 5 West Virginia vs. No. 1 Kentucky

Key Matchup: West Virginia's Devin Williams vs. Kentucky's Karl-Anthony Towns. Williams probably won't "match up" with Towns on the defensive end, as the Mountaineers will scatter on the court trying to trap and create turnovers in their full-court press. Towns will most likely defend Williams on the other end, however, and it will be interesting to see if Williams can get the big freshman out of the paint by stretching the floor. Williams, 6-foot-9, gives up two inches to Towns who is 6-11, but he's much quicker and more agile. Williams has added an 18-foot jump shot to his repertoire, and he'll need to hit them if he expects to drag Towns out of the paint and create driving lanes for West Virginia's talented guards.

Kentucky will Win IF: it slows the game, limits turnovers and takes care of the ball. The Mountaineers entire gameplan is to play pressure defense and create turnovers, as they are second in the nation in steals per game at 11.0. Their offense relies on these turnovers to create easy points at the other end. If Kentucky can get the ball across half court and set up its half-court offense, then West Virginia has a slim chance of winning. Taking care of the ball will also limit West Virginnia's fast-break points. The Wildcats need to force West Virginia to make jump shots and play in a slow half-court game.

West Virginia will Win IF: it does just the opposite. West Virginia needs to play its style of basketball, and do what it does best. If West Virginia gets Kentucky into an up-and-down game, and creates turnovers in the press, then it might have a chance to win. The Mountaineers also need to crash the boards, and limit Kentucky's second-chance opportunities. The Wildcats are much bigger with three starters at least 6-10, and they rank fifth in the nation in rebounding at 44.5 per game. West Virginia will need all hands on deck in the paint.

Player to Watch: Karl-Anthony Towns, Kentucky. The 6-11 freshman from New Jersey is an absolute load down low, and he's getting better by the minute. He averages 10.0 points, 6.8 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per game, shooting 55.9 percent from the floor. While Duke big man Jahlil Okafor is projected to be the No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft, some NBA scouts favor Towns. He's not as talented as Okafor on the offensive end, but when it comes to defense, Towns is night and day better. Towns can take over a game without scoring a point.

Prediction: Kentucky opened as a 13.5-point favorite, and that might not be enough. The Wildcats are much bigger and much deeper than West Virginia, and the plethora of NBA talent throughout the roster makes this an easy pick. Kentucky will win, handily. If the Wildcats don't break the press for easy buckets, they'll slow it and play half-court offense, which is bad news for a much smaller West Virginia team. Bob Huggins did a great job this year, but his team will not play in the Elite Eight.

No. 7 Wichita State vs. No. 3 Notre Dame

Key Matchup: Notre Dame's Jerian Grant vs. Wichita State's Ron Baker. Both of these guards lead their teams in scoring (Grant 16.8, Baker 15.0) and are two of the premier shooters in the country. Grant shoots 48 percent from the floor while Baker knocks down 44 percent. Both were also selected to the Wooden Award Final 15 list. Each can take over a game, and it should be interesting to see who steps up Thursday, in what should be an excellent matchup.

Notre Dame will Win IF: it contains Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet. These two guards are the heart and soul of Wichita State, as they try to make their second Final Four in three years. We discussed Baker, but VanVleet runs the point and creates shots for others. If the Irish can keep both under control, they'll cripple the Wichita State offense. The Irish know what they're going to get out of Jerian Grant, but they'll also need good production from the supporting cast. Pat Connaughton in particular is a key piece to Notre Dame's success. The Irish are 12-1 when he scores at least 14 points, and they'll need his best Thursday to advance.

Wichita State will Win IF: it defends at a high level and limits the second-chance opportunities. Notre Dame shoots a blistering 51 percent from the floor, so it will be crucial for the Shockers to crash the boards and rebound on the defensive end. If Notre Dame gets a lot of second and third shots, Wichita State is doomed. Wichita State is 22-0 this season when it holds opponents to 60 points or less. All four losses this season came when opponents scored more than 60 points. Limiting Notre Dame offensively should be the main focus. If the Shockers defend and rebound, everything else will take care of itself.

Player to Watch: Ron Baker, Wichita State. The 6-3 junior is the leading scorer for the Shockers at 15.0 points per game and will be the X-factor in this game. Baker averages 2.8 made three-pointers per game, and when he gets going, it's lights out for the opponent. If VanVleet can create shots and Baker can get open, Wichita State can score with anyone. He is a pure shooter that can make it from anywhere on the floor, and he'll be fun to watch once again Thursday.

Prediction: This game opened with no line, but the public likes the Shockers as the line has since moved to Wichita State -1.5. The teams are alike in many ways, and it should be one of the best Sweet 16 matchups. Although it's difficult to pick against the experienced guards from Wichita State that have already been to a Final Four, Notre Dame is the better team. The Irish played in the ACC, a conference that has five teams in the Sweet 16. The Irish are battle-tested and are riding a seven-game winning streak that includes victories against Louisville by 12, Duke by 10 and North Carolina by 8. They're slightly bigger across the front line, and they're led by arguably the nation's best scorer in Jerian Grant. This game will come down to the wire, but look for the Luck of the Irish to prevail.