Sweet 16 Preview: South Region

South Region Sweet 16

Site Memphis

Tip-off Friday

Although we have some surprise teams advancing in other regions, the South's Sweet 16 matchups feature the top four seeds as North Carolina, Kentucky, UCLA, and Butler all made it to the second weekend. All four have had interesting paths to get to this point with UNC and Kentucky both having to stave off scrappy opponents to punch their tickets Sunday while Butler and UCLA each advanced in rather comfortable fashion. With that, we'll have two excellent and balanced matchups featuring some of the best traditional powers in all of college basketball. Kentucky's showdown with UCLA is arguably the most anticipated matchup in this round, but Butler is flying under the radar and will provide a tough test for the Tar Heels.

No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 4 Butler

Key Matchup: North Carolina bigs vs. Butler's bigs. The Tar Heels have a distinct advantage on the glass that could tip the scales Friday. Butler ranks 240th in the nation in offensive rebound percentage whereas North Carolina is the best in the nation in that category. The Heels' rebounding prowess was on display in Sunday's hard-fought win over Arkansas as they out-rebounded the Razorbacks 45-32, including 18-8 in offensive rebounds. Justin Jackson and Joel Berry tend to provide most of the scoring spark, but the combination of Isaiah Hicks and Kennedy Meeks make up one of the best rebounding tandems in the nation. With that, Kelan Martin, Tyler Wideman, and Nate Fowler will need to be at their best in order to limit the Heels' second-chance opportunities. If North Carolina dominates the glass, it could be a long night for the Bulldogs.

Butler will win IF: it can limit North Carolina's 3-point shooting and second-chance opportunities. As mentioned above, Butler will need to be at its best on the glass against one of the most high-powered offenses in the land. The Bulldogs were successful in limiting Middle Tennessee's perimeter shooting Saturday, holding the Blue Raiders to just 4-of-19 from beyond the arc. While it's unlikely that the Bulldogs will have a similar level of success against the Tar Heels in that regard, holding UNC in check from deep will go a long ways toward keeping them in it. Additionally, Butler can get North Carolina out of rhythm by dictating the tempo. Butler ranks 288th in the nation in tempo, according to KenPom, whereas North Carolina plays at a much higher pace (53rd).

North Carolina will win IF: it can turn the Bulldogs over and control the glass. Butler plays a mistake-free brand of basketball, ranking 10th in the nation in turnover percentage. With that, North Carolina can make the Bulldogs uncomfortable by playing an aggressive brand of defense and attacking Butler's ball handlers with Joel Berry, Theo Pinson, Nate Britt, and Justin Jackson. Getting Butler out of its rhythm and stymying its ball rotation would completely change the complexion of the game given that North Carolina will likely already have a distinct advantage on the glass.

Player to Watch: Joel Berry, North Carolina. Berry rolled his ankle in the Tar Heels' blowout win over Texas Southern, and while he did log 34 minutes Sunday, he struggled mightily from the field against Arkansas. He was just 2-of-13 from the floor and 4-of-7 from the line, which marked significant drop-offs from his season averages of 43.6 FG% and 81.3 FT%. It's difficult to determine whether his ankle was the sole reason behind his cold shooting performance Sunday, but the fact that he struggled to that degree is certainly a concern. Fortunately, Berry will have almost a full week to get treatment on his ankle before taking the floor Friday. If Berry plays up to his standards, the Bulldogs will be in deep trouble.

Prediction: Although Butler took care of business rather comfortably in the opening weekend while North Carolina had to sweat out Sunday's result, I still think that North Carolina's athleticism is a big enough advantage to where the Heels should come out on top. North Carolina's rebounding ability is an issue for any opponent, but against an undersized Butler front, it becomes an even bigger advantage. If Butler can't limit North Carolina's second-chance opportunities, it could be a long night for the Bulldogs.

No. 2 Kentucky vs. No. 3 UCLA

Key Matchup This matchup of blue bloods is undoubtedly one of the most highly anticipated matchups in the Sweet 16 with two of the best offenses in the nation going toe-to-toe. The biggest factor will be how Kentucky is able to defend UCLA's Lonzo Ball, who is the best facilitator in the nation, averaging 7.6 assists per game. In addition to his play making ability, Ball has been remarkably efficient through his first two games of the tournament, going a combined 13-of-17 from the field. When Ball is distributing the ball well and scoring with ease, UCLA becomes arguably the best offense in the nation. Kentucky's De'Aaron Fox and Malik Monk have the length and athleticism to match up well with Ball, but Ball is simply too talented and versatile to be stopped completely. If Kentucky can limit Ball's open looks and force some bad shots, UCLA's well-oiled machine of an offense could stall out.

Kentucky will win IF: Bam Adebayo gets involved. Adebayo isn't necessarily Kentucky's primary scoring option, but Kentucky goes to another level when he's getting involved in the offense in addition to dominating the glass. He's got three double-doubles in his last five outings and is shooting 56.1 percent from the floor in that span. Guard play will catch most of the headlines entering Friday, but Adebayo creates the type of matchup problems in the interior that could tip the scales in Kentucky's favor.

UCLA will win IF: its bigs get into rhythm offensively. Lonzo Ball isn't UCLA's only offensive threat as the Bruins boast a frontcourt pairing in T.J Leaf and Thomas Welsh that can stretch the floor unlike anything Kentucky has seen in months. Leaf and Welsh aren't necessarily volume shooters from beyond the arc, but they play well away from the basket and are lethal in the mid-range game. The spacing that those two provide will take Adebayo out of his element to an extent, which could limit his damage on the glass. In their previous matchup, Leaf was 6-of-10 from the floor en route to posting 17 points and 13 rebounds as the Bruins dealt the Wildcats a rare loss at Rupp Arena. If Leaf and Welsh are pulling Adebayo away from the basket and hitting their shots, UCLA's balanced attack will become a nightmare for the Wildcats each time down the floor.

Player to Watch There are almost too many players to write about in this section, but I give the nod to De'Aaron Fox. He will be a handful for Lonzo Ball and Bryce Alford on offense, and his length and athleticism give him the ability to create problems for that duo on the defensive end. Fox has been clicking offensively of late, averaging 19.7 points on 53.3 percent shooting in his last six games. His ability to get to the line has also been impressive, averaging 7.5 free throw attempts in that stretch. With how well UCLA is able to stay out of foul trouble (9th in the nation in FTA allowed), Fox can get the Bruins off balance by staying aggressive, driving the lane, and drawing contact. Kentucky absolutely needs Fox to play well on both ends of the floor in order to not only get its offense into gear, but also limit the damage from Ball and company.

Prediction We're getting treated to a Final Four-level matchup in the Sweet 16 here, and while UCLA was able to pull off the win at Kentucky in December, I give the edge to the Wildcats this time around. It's no secret that John Calipari's teams usually don't start to fully jell until later in the season due to their reliance on freshmen, and this year was no different. The trio of Fox, Monk, and Adebayo have come of age late in the season and spurred the Wildcats' current 13-game winning streak. UCLA can match Kentucky in terms of tempo and its floor spacing could be an issue for the Wildcats, but the Wildcats' strength on the glass and ability to get to the foul line could be the difference Friday.