Sweet 16 Preview: South Region

Site: Atlanta, GA
Tip-off: Thursday

Cinderella survived and advanced like never before in the South region. None of the top four seeds in the South reached the Sweet 16. The UMBC Retrievers pulled off the greatest upset in the history of the NCAA Tournament, becoming the first 16-seed to defeat a No. 1 seed. The Retrievers defeated Virginia in convincing fashion to boot, clobbering the shell-shocked Cavaliers by 20 points. UMBC could not replicate the magic against Kansas State, though, as the Wildcats stymied the previously unstoppable Retriever offense en route to the Sweet 16.

Meanwhile, the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers were a chic upset pick and lived up to the hype, making the Sweet 16 as a double-digit seed by dispatching of both Miami and Tennessee in dramatic fashion. The Ramblers hit the deciding baskets in each contest with less than four seconds remaining. 98-year-old Sister Jean, the team chaplain for Loyola-Chicago, has become the darling of the big dance this year, watching her Ramblers execute in crunch time in person.

Nevada mounted two epic comebacks for a surprise appearance of their own in the Sweet 16. The Wolf Pack outlasted Texas in OT, then shrugged off a sluggish start to defeat No. 2 Cincinnati, 75-53. Somehow, Nevada is the second-highest seed remaining in this region at No. 7.

After complaining about the draw, coach John Calipari and the Kentucky Wildcats are the highest remaining seed, and should be favored to reach the Final Four. The Wildcats struggled through the regular season in the SEC, but caught fire in the SEC Tournament, winning the postseason crown and then cruising into the Sweet 16 with victories over double-digit seeds in Davidson and Buffalo.

With the matchups in the South now set, let's take a deeper look at the upcoming games.

No. 9 Kansas State vs. No. 5 Kentucky

Key Matchup: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Barry Brown. Gilgeous-Alexander has raised his game to new heights in recent games, and his superb play has in turn elevated the Wildcats. Over the last three contests, including the SEC Title Game, the freshman point guard is averaging 25 points, seven rebounds, 5.3 dimes and three steals. Meanwhile, Brown is the catalyst for Kansas State on both ends of the floor. He had 11 games with 20 points or more during the regular season, and led the Wildcats in scoring in both tourney games. He is also K-State's best defender, and his feistiness will be needed against the surging Gilgeous-Alexander.

Kansas State will Win IF: they value the basketball. This means limiting turnovers on the offensive end, and forcing turnovers on the defensive side. Kansas State forced 17 turnovers against UMBC, but also turned the ball over 18 times. If K-State turns the ball over with this much frequency versus Kentucky, the game will be a laugher. However, UK has managed double-digit turnovers in both tournament games and K-State is incredibly scrappy on the defensive end. K-State needs to turn Kentucky over early and often, while also taking care of the ball when it is in their possession, in order to have any chance.

Kentucky will Win IF: their hot shooting continues. The uber-athletic Wildcats have played suffocating defense during the tournament, holding the opposition to under 40-percent from the floor in their wins over Davidson and Buffalo. However, the difference from the regular season has been their performance on the offensive end. Not known for their jump shooting, the Wildcats connected on over 50-percent of their shots from the floor in each of their NCAA tourney victories. The 'Cats have no problem getting to the rim, but if UK continues to make shots from the outside, the Wildcats are going to be incredibly difficult to beat.

Player to Watch: Dean Wade, F, Kansas State. Wade will need to be monitored in two ways. Firstly, will he even be able to take the court against Kentucky? Wade missed K-State's first two games of the tournament with a stress fracture in his foot. It was initially thought he would be able to suit up, but that did not come to fruition. The leading scorer for the Wildcats now has an extra week to heal, but secondly, one also has to wonder what kind of game shape he will be in if he plays, and how long it will take him to shake off the rust. Kentucky's breakneck pace will do him no favors if he comes out gimpy. Still, it would be a huge boost for K-State if Wade could take the floor.

Prediction: Kentucky is peaking right now. They're too athletic, too skilled, too motivated to prove the doubters wrong. K-State is basically a poor man's version of Kentucky. If Kevin Knox hits some three-pointers as well, this game could get out of hand early. In Kentucky's second Wildcat vs. Wildcat matchup of the tournament, UK comes out the victor once again.

No. 11 Loyola-Chicago vs. No. 7 Nevada

Key Matchup: Donte Ingram vs. Cody Martin. There's no telling whether these two players will actually guard each other, as these squads play a kind of positionless basketball that has taken the game by storm in recent years. That being said, they're similar in size as well as in the way they can both affect the game in a variety of ways. Ingram was the hero in the first round stunner over Miami, leads the Ramblers in rebounding yet shoots over five treys per game. Martin led the epic comeback against Nevada, accumulating 25 points, six rebounds and seven dimes in the 75-73 triumph. Martin leads the Wolfpack on assists but makes his hay on the interior mostly.

Loyola-Chicago will Win IF: they continue to perform efficiently on offense. The Ramblers have 36 assists in their two tournament victories, as compared to just 20 turnovers over that same span. In addition, the Ramblers are shooting close to 50-percent from the floor as a unit. All this adds up to dynamite execution, which has proven the difference in their two close wins. Watch out for Missouri Valley Conference Player of the Year Clayton Custer, who, despite hitting the game-winner versus the Vols, has not truly gotten going on the offensive end during the tournament.

Nevada will Win IF: the Wolf Pack string together stops on defense. The Wolf Pack came into the tournament as one of the highest scoring teams in the country, but they're defense was considered suspect. Though both of their tourney wins have been rather high scoring, they've managed stops when needed (see the end of regulation and overtime versus Texas, and during 32-8 run in comeback win over Cincy). In fact, Cincinnati didn't score a basket in the final 5:45 of the last game.

Player to Watch: Caleb Martin, F, Nevada. The Martin twins came over from NC State together as transfers, and they've lit a fire under the Wolf Pack. Caleb is the leading scorer, but hasn't really shot the ball well in the tournament (10-for-26 from the floor, including 6-of-19 from three-point range). Yet somehow, Nevada has survived anyway. If Caleb gets hot, there may be no stopping the Wolfpack.

Prediction: Will this be (Clayton) Custer's last stand? The Ramblers trailed in the final seconds of both of their tourney contests en route to the Sweet 16. Meanwhile, Nevada has trailed at halftime in both tournament games, yet came back and won them both. These underdogs have battled against the odds, and either gritty team could take this contest. In the end, Nevada's offensive firepower will be just a little too much for the Cinderella Ramblers to handle. Besides, even Sister Jean has the Ramblers losing in the Sweet 16.