Women's March Madness Preview: Bracket Advice and Picks

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Published on March 14, 2023

Women's college basketball featured plenty of star power this season, and that talent will be under the spotlight over the next several weeks during the NCAA Tournament. Conference tournaments included plenty of upsets, including Washington State winning the Pac-12 Tournament as a 7-seed while Virginia Tech and Iowa State won their conference tournaments as 3-seeds. South Carolina was, unsurprisingly, the only 1-seed to win its tournament among Power Five schools. The defending champs enter the NCAA Tournament following their first undefeated regular season in program history.

Women's March Madness generally has fewer upsets than the men's tournaments, making it especially important to target mismatches in the first few rounds while sending most of the top-seeded teams to the later rounds. Check out RotoWire's Women's March Madness Team Previews for an analysis of each team's strengths and weaknesses while we focus on fine-tuned advice below now that the bracket is out.

In addition to bracket advice, RotoWire offers March Madness betting promos that offer nearly $4,000 in bonus bets.

THE FAVORITES

South Carolina - As mentioned above, the Gamecocks went undefeated this year after winning the NCAA Tournament in 2022 and are the clear favorite to repeat as champions in 2023. The SEC wasn't the most formidable Power Five conference in the nation, but South Carolina won its games by an average margin of 30.3 points, leading the country. The team won its first two matchups against Top 5 opponents this year (Stanford and UConn) by single digits. However, the Gamecocks beat LSU by 24 points in February, knocking off the only other remaining undefeated team in the country.

Regional Competitors - Maryland, Notre Dame and UCLA round out the top four teams in the Greenville 1 Region. South Carolina beat Maryland by 25 points and UCLA by nine earlier this season, while Notre Dame could be dealing with a significant absence if Olivia Miles can't play in the NCAA Tournament. Led by coach Dawn Staley and forward Aliyah Boston, the projected No. 1 overall pick in this year's WNBA Draft, South Carolina's path to the Final Four is clear.

Indiana - The Hoosiers ended their season on a sour note by giving up a 24-point lead against Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament final. However, Indiana was still one of the most dominant teams in the nation despite playing in a conference with four teams who earned at least a four-seed in this year's NCAA Tournament. Indiana features a versatile offensive attack led by forward Mackenzie Holmes and guard Grace Berger and ranked third in the nation in effective field-goal percentage with solid efficiency marks on two-pointers and three-pointers.

Regional Competitors - Utah, LSU and Villanova are the other top four seeds in the Greenville 2 Region and are more formidable opponents than those in the Greenville 1 Region. Utah was in the mix for a 1-seed earlier in March, but a loss to Washington State in the Pac-12 Tournament quarterfinal pushed the team to a 2-seed. LSU was the second-to-last undefeated team remaining in the country before losing to South Carolina, but strength of schedule has been a concern for the Tigers. Villanova also had a solid run this year but has a tougher run before a potential matchup against Indiana, as the Wildcats would have to play Washington State or FGCU in the second round. Indiana certainly has the talent to make a run, but the team faces more obstacles in the regional stage.

Stanford - Although Stanford lost two of its three games ahead of the NCAA Tournament, the team was regarded as one of the best in the nation throughout the year and earned its second consecutive 1-seed. The Cardinal play at a slow pace but have a stellar defense anchored by junior forward Cameron Brink and senior guard Haley Jones. The team won 20 games against top 100 teams in the NET rankings and has experience making deep tournament runs under longtime coach Tara VanDerveer, as the Cardinal won the national championship in 2021 and made it to the Final Four last year.

Regional Competitors - The Seattle 3 Region has one of the most intriguing potential matchups between a 1-seed and 2-seed, as 2-seed Iowa would likely match up well against the Cardinal. The Hawkeyes have one of the most electric offenses in the nation, headlined by sharpshooter Caitlin Clark and frontcourt presence Monika Czinano. Duke earned a 3-seed behind a solid early-season run, but the Blue Devils have lost two of their last three matchups and have been held under 45 points in those three games. It seems likely that their slow pace will haunt them in the talented Seattle 3 Region. Texas won a share of the Big 12 regular-season title with a run that included four wins over AP-ranked opponents and earned a 4-seed in the NCAA Tournament. However, the squad doesn't have as much offensive firepower as other teams in the region.

Virginia Tech - Virginia Tech had a lackluster start to conference play but went on an 11-game winning streak to close out the year and won the ACC Tournament to play its way onto the 1-line. The Hokies have a slow-paced offense but demonstrated their ability to keep up with more high-octane opponents, including a 75-67 win over Louisville in the conference tournament final. The team finished 10th in the nation with a 75.5 percent defensive rebound rate driven by Elizabeth Kitley, who averaged a double-double with 18.6 points and 10.5 rebounds per game. Like Stanford, Virginia Tech won 20 games over teams in the top 100 in the NET rankings, and the Hokies have plenty of momentum entering the NCAA Tournament.

Regional Competitors - UConn has been among the most dominant teams in college basketball during coach Geno Auriemma's 37-year run. However, the team has dealt with significant injuries this year and is a 2-seed for the second time in the last three years. While Paige Bueckers will remain sidelined during the NCAA Tournament, the Huskies got a boost by getting Azzi Fudd back for the Big East Tournament. Despite the team's adversity this year, UConn is a significant threat to make a deep run. Ohio State could tend to be somewhat overlooked in the talented Big Ten this year, but the program won its first 19 games of the season. The Buckeyes have lost seven of 13 games to close out the season, including a 33-point loss to Iowa in the Big Ten Tournament final. However, the team flashed its former potential by overcoming a 24-point second-half deficit against Indiana in the conference tournament semifinal. Tennessee upset LSU in the SEC Tournament semifinal and earned a 4-seed in the NCAA Tournament, but the Lady Volunteers have lost to each of the other top three seeds in the Seattle 4 Region at some point this year.

POTENTIAL UPSETS

No. 12 Florida Gulf Coast vs. No. 5 Washington State

The Cougars are fresh off a Pac-12 Tournament victory in which they pulled off several upsets of their own, but they'll have their hands full with a high-scoring FGCU squad that shot plenty of three-pointers and led the nation with a 47.1 percent three-point rate. While the Eagles didn't face a particularly tough schedule in the ASUN Conference this year, they match up well against Washington State's slow-paced offense. FGCU secured a first-round upset as a 12-seed with a win over Virginia Tech last year, and the team is in a favorable spot to repeat the feat this year and compete for its first-ever Sweet Sixteen berth.

No. 11 UNLV vs. No. 6 Michigan

Sticking in the Greenville 2 Region, the matchup between UNLV and Michigan features two teams with vastly different finishes to the season. The Lady Rebels finished the year on a 22-game streak, while the Wolverines fell in four of their final six matchups. Both teams' main strengths are on the offensive side of the ball, which should lead to an entertaining, high-scoring matchup. Desi-Rae Young posted back-to-back double-doubles with 20-plus points for UNLV to close out the Mountain West Tournament. While the team hasn't had as tough of a schedule as Michigan, the Lady Rebels' scoring and rebounding abilities could carry them to the second round. Whichever team wins this matchup will also have a legitimate chance to compete with 3-seed LSU in the second round, assuming the Tigers beat Hawaii in the first round.

No. 11 Middle Tennessee vs. No. 6 Colorado

Middle Tennessee and Colorado are both slow-paced programs, but the Blue Raiders have been a much more efficient offense this season. The Pac-12 boasts plenty of frontcourt talent, which has generally allowed the Buffaloes' Jaylyn Sherrod to provide a change of pace as a 5-7 guard. However, Middle Tennessee has guards Jalynn Gregory and Savannah Wheeler, who will attempt to hold Sherrod in check, while forward Courtney Whitson provides height on the inside. The Buffaloes lost three of five games ahead of the NCAA Tournament and are in danger of a first-round exit.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Angel Reese, Louisiana State - Reese transferred from Maryland to LSU ahead of the 2022-23 campaign and has been integral to the Tigers' success during their 28-2 season. While LSU's strength of schedule was a question mark this season, Reese's talent was not, as she finished fifth in the nation with 23.4 points per game and second with 15.5 rebounds per game. She's been a consistent threat for high-scoring double-doubles and will have to be at the top of her game if the Tigers hope to avoid being upset in the first couple of rounds.

Kaitlyn Chen, Princeton - Princeton is another double-digit seed with the potential to secure an upset or two in the NCAA Tournament, and Chen has been the team's top contributor en route to its Ivy League Tournament win. She had some inconsistent scoring performances early in the season but finished the year on a high note, scoring 20-plus points in five of her last six appearances. Princeton has a first-round matchup against an NC State squad that went 4-6 down the stretch, and Chen could lead the Tigers to the second round of the NCAA Tournament for a second consecutive year.

FINAL FOUR PICKS

No. 1 South Carolina - South Carolina is the easiest of the Final Four picks following its undefeated season and the litany of stars that were around for the team's national championship last year. The Gamecocks don't have many flaws and shouldn't have much trouble in the Greenville 1 Region.

No. 1 Indiana - The Hoosiers are coming off a disappointing loss in the Big Ten Tournament semifinal, but they've beaten several tough opponents handily throughout the season. Indiana could face Utah or LSU in the Greenville 2 Region. However, I predict the potent duo of Mackenzie Holmes and Grace Berger will be enough to lead Indiana to its first Final Four in program history.

No. 2 Iowa - Moving slightly away from chalky picks, Iowa suffered a second-round loss as a 2-seed last year but has a chance to bounce back this year with its first Final Four since 1993. Stanford will present a formidable challenge as a 1-seed, but the Cardinal struggle defensively on the perimeter, which should give Caitlin Clark a chance to shine if the two teams meet.

No. 2 Connecticut - Coach Geno Auriemma has expressed pessimism in UConn's ability to make a deep tournament run this year. However, the Huskies are healthy at the right time now that Azzi Fudd is back in action. Despite the adversity this year, UConn remains one of the top teams in college basketball and is firmly in the mix to advance to its 15th consecutive Final Four.