College Football DFS: Weekday Slate MACtion

John McKechnie breaks down the Tuesday night MAC slate on both DFS sites, where Kent State's Dustin Crum may be the only viable quarterback play on the board. Can you build a quality lineup that fades Crum?

November 10, 2020

College Football DFS: Weekday Slate MACtion

By:

John McKechnie

November 10, 2020

College Football DFS: Weekday Slate

MACtion is back in full swing and we've got you covered with slate breakdowns for both Tuesday and Wednesday. I'm covering Tuesday's three-gamer that features two (expected) blowouts and one competitive matchup. Ohio (-27.5) and Kent State (-20.5) are the heaviest favorites on the board with the highest implied totals as well while the Miami (OH)-Buffalo game should be competitive as the Bulls check in as 8.5-point favorites over the defending MAC champs.

DFS Tools

Matchup Info

Roster Construction

Usually, my DFS articles are main-slate-focused with 12+ games from which to choose. That provides a ton of different angles to attack a slate. A three-gamer presents a unique challenge, and while using a quarterback in the SuperFlex is the norm in bigger slates, it might not be the best path Tuesday. Outside of Dustin Crum, there are major quarterback questions on this slate. Kurtis Rourke carries risk as Amari Rogers looms as a rushing threat who could take over multiple series; Kyle Vantrease is efficient but is an extremely low-volume passer; AJ Mayer is unproven and then Zach Gibson and Matt McDonald were both held under 10.0 fantasy points in their starts last week.

With that, I endorse trying roster builds that use premier running back (Jaret Patterson) or wide receivers (Isaiah McKoy, Antonio Nunn) at SuperFlex on Tuesday. Don't feel

DFS Tools

Matchup Info

Roster Construction

With that, I endorse trying roster builds that use premier running back (Jaret Patterson) or wide receivers (Isaiah McKoy, Antonio Nunn) at SuperFlex on Tuesday. Don't feel like a quarterback is a must at SuperFlex.

Quarterback

Dustin Crum, Kent State ($9,300) at Bowling Green

It's hard to make a lineup you really feel good about without Crum. He's easily the best quarterback on the slate -- his salary is $2,300 higher than the next listed starter -- and has the softest matchup. Bowling Green surrendered 524 total yards on 6.24 yards per play in the opener and things could get even uglier Tuesday if Kent State lets Crum do his thing for all 60 minutes.

On a small slate with three games, some chalk is unavoidable and Crum absolutely qualifies as a must-play.

GPP Option: Amari Rogers, Ohio ($6,300 DK, $9,600)

It's especially interesting that FanDuel lists Rogers and Kurtis Rourke at the same salary, while Rourke checks in at $7,000 on DraftKings. It makes sense to have Rourke higher -- he's going to start again for the Bobcats and looked solid last week. But Rogers -- an accomplished UNLV graduate transfer -- is electric as a rusher and it's clear that Ohio plans to use him in that role. He has two seasons of at least 500 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns under his belt and saw seven carries for 32 yards in his Ohio debut. Rogers won't throw more than 10 passes Tuesday, but there's a strong chance he pushes for double-digit carries against a hapless Akron defense. That's not something to just brush aside for your DraftKings lineup.

Running Back

Xavier Williams, Kent State ($4,900) at Bowling Green

Williams actually finished third among Kent State running backs in carries last week as both Bryan Bradford (12) and Marquez Cooper (16) saw more work than Williams' seven rushes. Still, Williams finished with 55 yards and a touchdown and led all rushers in YPC (7.86). That explosive element to Williams' game will come into play against a Bowling Green defense that surrendered 6.0 YPC to Toledo in its opener. Williams is the most experienced rusher in the Kent State backfield and even though he didn't get the most burn in the season opener, I expect him to claim the No.1 spot in terms of production before long. And even if he doesn't lead the team in rushes again Tuesday, there's reason to believe he can still return value at $4,900 with this favorable of a matchup.

For the record, Marquez Cooper ($4,300) is a viable play too and he may have the higher floor than Williams.

De'Montre Tuggle, Ohio ($8,000 DK, $9,800 FD) vs. Akron

Akron showed in the season opener that it still has a ways to go before getting back to respectability. That makes the Zips a team to target on Tuesday's slate. Ohio kept a small backfield rotation last week and Tuggle was the prominent piece of that attack, taking 16 of the 20 running back carries. Part of that might've had to do with the competitiveness of the game, but part of it also had to do with O'Shaan Allison not being 100 percent. If Allison is healthier Tuesday or if Ohio gets a comfortable lead, this could backfire for Tuggle backers. Both Julian Ross and Ja'Vahri Portis are capable when given snaps, so they won't stay on the sidelines forever.

But enough of focusing on how this play could go wrong. The facts are that 1.) Tuggle is the starting running back for Ohio and 2.) Bowling Green just gave up 218 rushing yards on 5.6 YPC last week. With the lack of other sure things at running back on the slate beyond Jaret Patterson, Tuggle becomes something of a necessary evil for lineup builds tonight.

Teon Dollard, Akron Akron ($5,100 DK, $6,700 FD) at Ohio

Yes, Akron is going to get blown out here but the Zips will still run the ball and Dollard is literally the only running back who got a carry for them last week. Dollard had 16 carries for 67 yards against Western Michigan and added four receptions on four targets, and that came in a game where Akron lost by 45.

There's also the matter of Ohio not being that great against the run, having allowed 184 yards to

Wide Receiver

Shane Hooks, Ohio ($4,800 DK, $7,900 FD) vs. Akron

The Ohio passing game has the green light Tuesday against this Akron defense. The Zips surrendered 14.0 YPA to Western Michigan in the opener and it doesn't figure to get much better against the Bobcats. Ohio spreads the ball out with five pass-catchers seeing multiple targets last week. Hooks was far outproduced by Isaih Cox (5-4-102-1) in the opener, and that explains the salary differential on these DFS sites.

But the fact remains that Hooks had the same number of targets as Cox and now gets to face a terrible pass defense. Hooks has the athleticism to be a mismatch against the Zips; he checks in at 6-foot-4 and over 200 pounds with a penchant for finding the end zone. Five of his 26 catches last season went for touchdowns and he caught an impressive touchdown in the opener a week ago. Cox, like Tuggle, is a good play this week. But Hooks has the talent and role to be a major difference-maker relative to salary on this slate.

Cameron Odom is underpriced as well. Odom checks in at $3,300/$6,100 and has a decent track record. He averaged 23 catches on 47 targets for 311 yards through his first three seasons and averaged over 4.0 targets per game over that span. Odom caught just one pass last week but it went for a 26-yard completion. If you want cheap exposure to the Ohio passing game, Odom is the move.

Jack Sorenson, Miami (Ohio) ($7,200 DK, $8,800 FD) vs. Buffalo

Sorenson is a combo high-floor, high-ceiling play on this slate and he works on both formats. The target floor (12 in the opener) gives him appeal on DraftKings but his explosiveness (11.6 YPT) gives him a strong projection on FanDuel as well. The key thing about Sorenson's performance from the opener was that it wasn't a fluke. Sorenson had a 21 percent target share last season while averaging 8.2 YPT.

On top of that, Buffalo looks like it might be a favorable matchup for Miami of Ohio's passing game. Or, attacking the Buffalo secondary seems like a less treacherous path than attacking the Bulls' run defense. Buffalo surrendered just 3.3 YPC to NIU last week. Yes, it also allowed three touchdowns, but touchdowns aren't as sticky week-to-week as YPC allowed. I tend to buy Buffalo being a tough run defense.

Toss in Buffalo checking in as 8.5-point favorites and it figures that Miami will be throwing it plenty on Tuesday and Sorenson, with his high target share, profiles as a safe play with some upside. Elsewhere on this offense, Kevin Davis ($3,400 DK, $5,500 FD) is listed as a running back but gets usage in the passing game as well. Davis caught all three of his targets for 41 yards and added four carries for 14 yards. If you're in need of a dart, Davis fits the bill.

Quintin Morris, Bowling Green ($4,600, $5,900) vs. Kent State

You definitely don't want to go overboard on your Bowling Green exposure Tuesday, but Morris is a worthy consideration. Morris, a hybrid receiver/tight end, led Bowling Green in every major receiving category by a wide margin last year, checking in with 55 catches for 649 yards and four touchdowns on a 28.9 percent target share. The returns weren't as strong in the opener last week with two catches for 19 yards, but the target share was still a strong 25.9 percent.

It's a tough matchup and Bowling Green isn't expected to make it to even 20 points according to its implied total from Vegas, but Morris is talented and has a big enough role to inspire some confidence that he'll hit value Tuesday.