College Football Best Bets: Finding the Edge, Week 11

College Football Best Bets: Finding the Edge, Week 11

This article is part of our College Football Best Bets series.

We had a mu h better week in our simulated portion of FTE last week, and although the upsets were universal for all bettors, we weathered variance by making some good underdog calls, as you'll see below.

SIMULATED BETS

Week 10 Results: 30-22 -2

Results through Week 9: 311-278-9

WIn Pct: 52.0%

CIN -23.5, WYO +14, MAINE -1.5, CONN +41, ECU +5.5, RUT +7, MICH -1.5, HOU -24.5, UCF +7.5, BAMA -51.5, OKLA -5.5, BUCK +53.5, WISC -24.5, AUB -5.5, KSU -6.5, SAM +31.5, SYR +3, WKU -18.5, GST +10.5, UTAH -24.5, USA +22.5, UAB +4.5, TEXST -2.5, ULL -7,  FAU-6.5, USM +33.5, MTSU -10,  CHAR +7, IOWA -4.5,  PUR +21,  BC +1.5, ISU -10.5, VT -11.5,  TENN +20, MIAFL -2.5, HAW -3.5, UTEP -1.5, TULS -3, MSU -12.5,  SC +1, ULM -3, ORST -12.5, UK -21.5, ASU _6, AFA -2.5, UNM +24.5, OLEMISS +2.5, ND -5.5, LSU +2.5,  MIAO -7.NCST +2,  KU +31, OKST -12.5, COLO +17.5, NEV +3, USU +4.5, ORE -14, WMU -25.5, EMU -5.5, 

Although we missed the Over/Unders last week, we nailed our other picks of TCU, Tennessee and Illinois, an excellent result from two underdogs and one slight favorite ATS.

REAL-MONEY BETS

Week 10 Results: 3-2

Results through Week 10: 29-22

Win Pct. 56.8%

UTAH (-24.5) @ Arizona

The celebration will be short for the Wildcats as they'll probably start a new losing streak against the Utes, who have their sights set on the PAC-12 title. Utah's running game has shredded defenses with at least 180 yards in six consecutive games, and the touchdowns keep coming as well. This is a pretty high number, but I see Utah scoring 35-40 points and very little on the scoreboard for Arizona.

NEVADA (+3) @ San Diego State

When the best player on your team is a punter, you have to start wondering about the deficiencies elsewhere on the team.  That's the case for the Aztecs, who depend on Matt Ariaza to bail them out of three-and-out situations with 70-yard bazookas on 4th down. Although Carson Strong is trapped on a mediocre team, he's looked great in recent weeks and has a dependable corps of wideouts along with a steady running back who can open up the passing game. I would tease this game up to +6.

NORTH CAROLINA STATE (+2) @ Wake Forest

The jig is up for the Demon Deacons - they fold against excellent defenses. They enjoyed a soft schedule all year and then met their match against the Tar Heels, who eliminated their offense in the fourth quarter and stole the game out from under them. We've seen the potency of Wake's offense behind Sam Hartman, but they haven't met a defense like the Wolf Pack, who have held opponents to 16 points per game this season.

OREGON (-12.5) vs. Washington State

Travis Dye and the rest of the Ducks' rushing attack should feast on the Cougars' run defense on Saturday. Washington State has won four of its last five, but this is their sternest test yet. Jayden de Laura will face a defense that doesn't give up much through the air. They'll need to rely on broken plays to stay competitive here.

OVER 57.5, Texas A&M @ Ole Miss

Coach Lane Kiffin has already said that his game plan against the Aggies is to play tempo and catch the defense flat-footed.  It's not a bad idea when you consider how Jimbo Fisher runs his defense. They use a lot of substitutions and tend to manipulate their zone defense frequently according to the situation.  If Kiffin can keep the Aggies from doing that, they may be able to catch them flat-footed. A fast temp also means a lot of snaps from the Rebels, which should offset the ground-based Aggies, who tend to move slower. This will be close, but I always like to include at least one game total bet.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jeff Edgerton
Jeff has provided sports content for numerous sports outlets and has played fantasy sports since scores had to be tabulated via newspaper. He started working with RotoWire in 2017. Originally from South Carolina, he's a lifelong Clemson fan now enjoying the sun in Los Angeles.
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