College Football Picks: Texas vs Oklahoma Best Bets
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The Texas Longhorns (3-2-0, 0-1-0 SEC) and the No. 6 Oklahoma Sooners (5-0-0, 1-0-0 SEC) will clash at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas for the 121st edition of the Red River Rivalry. Texas leads the all-time series, but in recent years, the Sooners have had a significant advantage, going 17-9 against the Longhorns since 2000. The looming question for this matchup will be answered before kickoff - will the Sooners have John Mateer at quarterback? Will it even matter against Texas' underperforming offense? Let's dig in and find out.
Texas vs Oklahoma Betting Odds for Week 7
Spread: Oklahoma +1 (ESPN Bet), Texas +1.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: Over 44.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook), Under 44.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Oklahoma -108 (FanDuel Sportsbook), Texas -105 (Caesars Sportsbook)
The spread opened with Oklahoma as a huge favorite, but John Mateer's likely absence sent a lot of money in Texas' direction. It has settled into the 1-2 point range and will probably remain there until kickoff. The total is probably the most interesting number, and it has risen a bit over the past few days. As we'll explain below, last year's game fell short of the total, but historically, this game outperforms the Vegas numbers.
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Texas vs Oklahoma Betting Picks for Week 7
I've elected to make two wagers here. One of them is based on hard data and is difficult to resist. The other is a stamp of approval for Brent Venables' defense and a strong hunch. Let's begin with the first prognostication. Although last year's game was the outlier, the Red River Rivalry has hit in nine of the 10 previous matchups. That's a pretty stark statistic. Granted, the Sooners might begin with a slight downgrade in Michael Hawkins at quarterback, but the downgrade may not be as bad as many think. Hawkins might be best prepared for the moment, as he was the starter in last year's matchup. He was ineffective in the game, but quarterbacks who are experiencing this rivalry for the first time haven't played all that well. Arch Manning hasn't lived up to the hype, and the Sooners' defense averages an FBS-high 4.2 sacks per game. Texas' offensive line still has a lot of holes, so It seems reasonable to guess that the triple-R rookie trend might continue at the Cotton Bowl. If Mateer shows up, he'll likely break the trend. While it would be great for John Mateer to be under center for Oklahoma, it may not be necessary. Oklahoma will win this one, and I'll stick with tradition and take the Over, which has hit more often than not.
Texas vs Oklahoma Expert Pick: Oklahoma +1 (ESPN Bet); Over 44.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Texas vs Oklahoma Predictions for Week 7
Reports surrounding John Mateer were positive as the week progressed, so he might play over Michael Hawkins. If Mateer were to magically appear, I would be willing to tease the spread up a notch, as I think the Heisman hopeful is worth about 5-7 points more if he plays. it will take a career game from Arch Manning to beat Venables' defense, and it will arguably be the toughest unit they will face this season. It will also be difficult for the Longhorns to diversify the offense. Oklahoma's run defense is especially unforgiving, and Arch Manning's pass acumen has been streaky and spotty. Texas' defense is no slouch, but it hasn't generated much confidence recently. They looked unprepared and stagnant against Florida, and Oklahoma has equally strong positional players for the unit to contend with. If we work on the assumption that Mateer's thumb is strong enough to play, this will be an easy out for the Sooners.
Final Score: Oklahoma 34, Texas 14
