This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Picks: SEC Betting Trends And Preview
The 2023-24 college football season is weeks away from starting and there are more solid opportunities on the landscape than I can remember in at least 10 or more seasons. This content will focus on those opportunities I am going to support and bet for the season.
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How Do Teams Do Following a Big ATS winning season?
The Tennessee Volunteers led the SEC conference going 10-3 against the spread (ATS) on an even more impressive 11-2 straight-up (SU) record last season. Next up as you can see on the chart below was the Kentucky Wildcats, who went 8-5 ATS for 62% winning bets on a 7-6 SU record, and then the third-best ATS record went to the Mississippi State Bulldogs, who went 7-5-1 ATS for 58% winning bets on a 9-4 SU record. The extremely high and low win percentages can provide excellent betting intelligence for projecting the following season.
On the downside of the winners on the ATS ledger, we find the Mississippi Rebels, who went 4-8-1 ATS for 33% winning bets on an 8-5 SU mark. I always look for candidates that are poised to revert back to the mean, which would be 50% winning bets ATS.
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Can We Gain a Betting Advantage Looking at 3-year Results?
Looking at the last three seasons of results combined into one total, the top ATS winning team has been the Arkansas Razorbacks with a 24-12 ATS record for 67% winning bets on a 19-17 SU record. The defending two-time National Champion Georgia Bulldogs have posted the second-best ATS record at 25-16 (including the playoffs and bowl games) for 61% winning bets on a 38-3 SU record. So, it is fair to say that the markets have been mispricing Georgia in that they have lost just three games in three seasons and still hit 61% ATS. Every team in the SEC has won at least 40% ATS over the past three seasons so there are no potential bounce-back candidates entering this season.
SEC teams that covered the spread in 22 or more of their previous 36 regular season games have seen the Under go 12-2-4 for 86% winning tickets in the following season. When these teams have been priced as the favorite, the Under has gone 7-1-2 for 88% winning tickets. So, Arkansas and Georgia Under wagers may provide a great start at a possible betting opportunity this season.
SEC Trends and Angles You Need to Know
The BYE week is always a welcomed week off and time to rest and heal from injuries suffered during the brutal SEC conference schedule. The Tennessee Volunteers have gone 9-1 SU and 7-2-1 ATS for 78% winning bets when having recorded an upset win in the week prior to their BYE week. The Volunteers bye is scheduled for Week 6 on October 7 and following that bye, they will host the Texas A&M Aggies.
A program on the rise is the Mississippi Rebels under head coach Lane Kiffin. They have an abundance of excellent quarterbacks starting with returning starter Jaxson Dart, who transferred from the USC Trojans after the 2021 season along with Oklahoma State transfer Spencer Sanders. The offense will be looking to evolve to even higher levels having nine of 11 starters returning this year including the entire offensive line. Dart made six starts as a true freshman for USC and enters his junior season having thrown for 4,327 passing yards and ranks No.4 on the Ole Miss all-time list gaining 7.32 yards-per-play and No. 17 with 2,974 passing yards. The defense was terribly poor in the second half of last season, but they will be much better this season having seven starters returning.
So, look to bet on Ole Miss when they are coming off a loss and facing a team ranked in the Top-25 AP poll knowing they have gone 24-13-1 ATS for 65% winning bets since 2006 and 10-5 ATS for 67% winning bets since 2016. When they have been favored in these matchups, they have gone 7-1 SU and 6-2 SATS for 75% winning bets.
The Georgia Bulldogs under head coach Kirby Smart will be looking to win the trifecta by winning their third National Championship in a row. Over my 28-year career, I have targeted these juggernauts because they become grossly overvalued nearly every week because of their success. Georgia has performed remarkably well when coming off a double-digit win and facing a conference foe that is coming off an upset win producing a 20-1 SU record winning by an average margin of 19.5 points per game and earning a highly profitable 19-2 ATS record for 91% winning bet since 1980. In fact, they are 18-0 SU and ATS since 1984 in this role.
Trends that amass this kind of meteoric records tend to fail miserably and revert back to the mean over the next few seasons and many times, the following season.
LSU vs Florida State in Week 1 Will be Telling
The LSU Tigers will not have a win-padding type of game to start the season when they face a terribly hungry foe in the Florida State Seminoles on September 3 set to kickoff at 7:30 PM EST at the Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida. Both teams have extremely high aspirations that include a run to the National Championship. LSU is ranked 5th in the inaugural AP poll while FSU comes in ranked 8th in the nation.
The winner of this game will most assuredly take a big step forward, but the loser of a marquee Top-10 matchup this early in the season will not be penalized nearly as much as when it happens in Week 10 or later. The line for this game makes LSU a scant 2.5-point favorite with a posted total of 56 points.
What Do the Predictive Models Project?
The implied final score of this game based on the market pricing is an LSU 29.5-27 win over FSU. My predictive models show an 81% probability that LSU will score 28 or more points, will have more total yards, and will average more yards per play than FSU. In past games in which LSU has met or exceeded these projections has led them to an outstanding 25-1 straight-up (SU) record, 20-6 ATS for 76% winning bets, and 18-8 OVER the posted total for 69% in games played over the past five seasons. When FSU has allowed these performance measures they have produced a terrible 3-13 SU record for 19% and a 4-12 ATS record for 25% winning bets including a 9-7 Over-Under record in games played over the past five seasons.
So, you can break down a game to handicap if they are or are not going to score 28 points in many games played in College Football, and in this case, I believe LSU will score 28 or more points and I like betting them -2.5 points now and also betting their team total Over 29.5 points and like that team total Over bet up to and including 32.5 points.
Thanks for reading this article on the SEC 2023-24 football season. You can reach me at @JohnRyanSports1 on "X" or send me a quick e-mail to [email protected]
