With the 2025 college football season approaching nearer by the day, it's high time to take a look at the early portion of the season to see which non-conference contests have the chance to shine this fall.
Starting with 'Week 0' on Aug. 23, CFB fans will have the opportunity to enjoy clashes like the Big 12 showdown between Iowa State and Kansas State in Dublin and Nebraska vs. Cincinnati in Kansas City, along with 'Group of Five' contests between USF and Boise State in Tampa.
With that in mind, RotoWire.com broke down the non-conference records of each CFP champ dating back to 2014 to see how important early season games are in determining the year-end champion, with a definite theme emerging.
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CFP Champions Non-Conference Records, By Year
CFP Champ, By Year | CFP Champ Non-Conference Record |
2024: Ohio State | 3-0 |
2023: Michigan | 3-0 |
2022: Georgia | 4-0 |
2021: Georgia | 4-0 |
2020: Alabama | 0-0 (All SEC games due to COVID-19) |
2019: LSU | 4-0 |
2018: Clemson | 4-0 |
2017: Alabama | 4-0 |
2016: Clemson | 4-0 |
2015: Alabama | 4-0 |
2014: Ohio State: | 3-1 |
Total Record: | 37-1 (.974) |
How CFP Winners Have Fared in Non-Conference Play
Quite well, to put it mildly. That's because each CFP winner except for the inaugural champ (Ohio State in 2014) has gone unbeaten in non-conference play, with the Buckeyes of 11 years ago falling to Virginia Tech in the lone loss out of 38 contests between a CFP winner and an out of conference foe between 2014 and 2024.
With back-to-back Big Ten members winning the event, in Michigan and Ohio State, we've seen successive 3-0 starts to the season as the conference plays a nine-game conference season, while SEC winners Georgia (2021 and 2022) and LSU (2019) went 4-0, as the conference plays eight games.
After that 2014 Buckeyes team, the next five CFP champions went 4-0 in non-conference play, with the Crimson Tide of 2015 and 2017 and the Clemson Tigers of 2016 and 2018 conquering each of their out of conference clashes that season.
Which Games Could Emerge As Key CFP Indicators in 2025?
While we'll know more about which CFB teams have the best shot at winning it all in the months ahead, we can already determine a few non-conference games that could have outsized implications on the year-end champion in 2025.
Those include the battle royale between the Texas Longhorns and Ohio State Buckeyes inside 'The Shoe' on Aug. 30, with the Buckeyes currently listed as a 3-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, in a rematch of last year's CFP semifinal, which Ohio State won, 28-14. That clash also pits the two teams with the best CFP title odds on DraftKings Sportsbook entering the season, with both co-listed at +550 in 2025.
That same day, there's also an intriguing clash between an Alabama Crimson Tide team that's listed at +1000 to win it all in 2025, against a Florida State Seminoles squad that's looking to get off the mat after bottoming out in 2024, going 2-10 and 1-7 in ACC play. While DraftKings Sportsbook currently has Alabama down as a 13.5-point favorite in that clash, it'll be interesting to see if FSU coach Mike Norvell can cook up an upset inside Doak Campbell Stadium on Aug. 30, or if the tides of 2024 are still firmly against FSU this fall.
The third matchup on Aug. 30 that catches our eye is the nightcap between dueling 'Death Valleys,' with LSU heading to Memorial Stadium to play Clemson on ABC. The ACC Tigers are listed as a 3.5-point home favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, on top of having better CFP title odds compared to Brian Kelly's bunch, with Clemson coming in at +1000 compared with LSU's +1600 odds this season.
In Week 3, there's the intriguing matchup at Lambeau Field between Alabama and Wisconsin, as Badgers head coach Luke Fickell looks to get UW back in fighting form after a disappointing 5-7 campaign in Madison last season, while the Crimson Tide are looking to keep their early season momentum alive in the heart of Cheesehead Country.
While there's sure to be plenty of college football games that exceed the hype, for now, all we can do is sit back and read the tea leaves from seasons' past to see which squads have the best shot at winning it all in 2025. One thing that those teams will have to do, clearly, based on past CFP trends is win early and often, with non-conference success parlaying into postseason hardware in today's college football landscape.
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