This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl: LSU vs. Purdue Odds, Best Bets, and Predictions
What pairs better than citrus and Cheez-Its? And yes, I only opened this way because I wanted to say "Cheez-Its" in direct opposition to the company line that the plural is "Cheez-It crackers." It's not as psychopathic as Skittles saying that an individual entity is a "Skittles lentil," but it's up there. Anyway, LSU is facing Purdue, and what we have here is one of the biggest lines you will find this bowl season, especially for a "big" bowl like this one.
LSU vs. Purdue Odds for the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Spread: LSU -14.5 (BetMGM)
Total: 56.5 (BetMGM)
Moneyline: LSU -600, Purdue +425 (BetMGM)
I am using BetMGM, because I simply did not see the game on my usual sportsbook of choice, FanDuel. Did FanDuel simply want no part of this game? With the Tigers being favored by over two touchdowns, this matchup definitely stands out from the pack.
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LSU vs. Purdue Betting Picks This Week
So how did we arrive at a two-touchdown spread for the Citrus Bowl? Both of these teams lost in their conference title games. However, LSU got there by beating teams like Alabama to win its SEC division, while Purdue took advantage of the Big Ten West being relatively weak. The conference's three best teams were in the East, after all. LSU went 9-4, while Purdue went 8-5.
The records may be close, but that tells only a portion of the story. In SP+, LSU ranks 18th, while Purdue is down at 47th. The Tigers have Brian Kelly, of course, but also Jayden Daniels. The Boilermakers lost Jeff Brohm to his hometown team of Louisville, and they are also missing several key players. Aidan O'Connell? Gone. Charlie Jones, he of the 110 catches for 1,361 yards and 12 touchdowns? Gone.
Two touchdowns is a lot, still. It's hard to take that in a bowl game. That moneyline is not enticing either, given how much you have to wager relative to what you win. In the end, I'll accept the points, slightly begrudgingly, because the talent disparity is just too much.
LSU vs. Purdue Best Bet: LSU -14.5 at Bet MGM
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl Prediction
I don't see the Boilermakers doing anything offensively. That's really what my bet came down to. If Purdue breaks 20 points, I'll be surprised. That gives LSU a lot of leeway in terms of racking up a comfortable win. Daniels can be hit-or-miss, but if he hits, I think the Tigers win running away, maybe in the biggest blowout of bowl season. If Daniels is more middling, I still think LSU wins, but perhaps sweating that cover.
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