College Capper: Best Bets Week 12

Chris' Picks

Given the ambiguity going into last week, I'm happy to walk away with a 2-2 record and one PPD. Ole Miss did as I expected for an easy cover, while Wake backdoored their way into a cover. No clue what happened to Kentucky's defense, and Army had me regretting the minute I pressed submit given their layoff. There are equal amounts of ambiguity, if not more, this week with what teams, and what players suit up. Tread lightly, adjust closer to kickoff, and let's keep the winners rolling. My initial column included Wake over Duke, and Arkansas over LSU, the latter of which I'm only hearing rumors about a postponement If they play, and Feleipe Franks suits up, I love the Hawgs. I normally feel good about four games, and having to punt two already, I'm lacking confidence this week. Maybe just ride my co-author, who is on a serious heater! Cheers, Greg!

Iowa (-2.5) at Penn State

I admittedly don't do much B1G. So maybe I'm falling into a trap. But PSU looks woeful and has apparently moved on from QB Sean Clifford. They are playing like they hope things get canceled, where Iowa is rallying. The Hawkeyes have allowed seven points in each of their last two games, and are getting their rushing attack rolling on the other side, scoring four TDs in each of their last two games on the ground, averaging 6.1 ypc in the process. Until the Nittany Lions prove otherwise, I'm content to assume they won't.

Over (57.5) East Carolina at Temple

Canceled games are forcing me out of my comfort zone, first with a B1G game above, and now a total which loyal readers know I don't do. What am I missing here? East Carolina is allowing 39.7 ppg, Temple 38.7 ppg, ranking 118th and 117th nationally, respectively. While not offensive juggernauts, the two teams combine to average 50.1 ppg. I don't love that the total has moved down from an opening 63, as Temple will be working with an unproven quarterback. 

Cincinnati (-5.5) at Central Florida

I'm personally locking this in at anything under seven, maybe even 10, as I've been all aboard the Cincy train this year. It's all about defense here. The Bearcats rank third nationally, allowing just 12.4 ppg. That includes 10 against Army, seven against USF, 13 against SMU, 10 against Memphis, 10 against Houston, and 17 against ECU. That's incredibly impressive and there are no signs a letdown is imminent. Further, the offense is clicking, averaging 46.0 ppg over the last four with a low of 38. I fully expect the Knights to post a season-high in points against Cincy, but UCF ranks 88th against the run and 92nd against the pass. They aren't going to score enough to upset the Bearcats.

North Carolina State (-3.5) vs. Liberty

I've ridden Liberty with success this year, but I just can't see this team going 3-0 against ACC competition. The Wolfpack are vulnerable against the run, allowing 4.4 yards per carry, but the production against them has been very feast or famine. This is an absolute gut feel play, but I'm banking on a hair of overconfidence from the Flames, and the Wolfpack to be fired up. NCST's offense has been impressive under Bailey Hockman, and I'll take them in a shootout.

Clemson (-35.5) at Florida State

Man do I hate this huge number, and I'd probably pay it down .5 of a full point if possible. But Clemson has had a week to lick their wounds after losing at Notre Dame, will welcome back Trevor Lawrence and a plethora of their defense back, and it should add up to a route. Florida State has minimal options left under center and seems to be losing players left and right to opt-outs/transfers. I am likely pounding the first half number, but this spread has moved up, and the total has moved down. That tells me Florida State isn't scoring, and it's a name your score game for the Tigers. 

Last week: 2-2, Season: 26-25-2

GREG'S PICKS

I failed to put consecutive 4-1 weeks together, but another winning week keeps the streak alive. That's eight consecutive winning weeks and no, I'm not worried about a jinx as I mentioned the streak two weeks ago and I'm still here.

As for this past week, the two losses were the Minnesota Over --which wasn't close -- and Boston College, which looked close, but wasn't all that close. The wins were pretty easy, with the over in the Cincinnati game, the over in the Houston game and North Carolina State which easily handled Florida State.

Florida Atlantic (-32) vs UMass

The thought of laying this many points with a team like FAU a week ago would have been crazy, but after putting up 38 points this past week, it feels like the Owls might have found something. Add to that, the normally stellar Owl defense surrendered 18 points as well! It doesn't sound like much, but trust me, it was a surprise to see them give up that many points. That's good news though because they'll surely look to tighten up on defense this week and here comes lowly UMass which has scored just 10 points in two games this season.       

Over (57.5) East Carolina at Temple

East Carolina continued its trend of going over the total this past week as the Pirates could do nothing to slow down Cincinnati. Temple is no Cincinnati and the Owls have shown a propensity to disappear from time to time, but East Carolina's defense is so bad, UMass could probably put up 20+ points against it. The other side of the ball is no concern this week as the Pirate offense is very potent (at least against weak competition) and guess what they face this week – weak competition! The Temple defense has surrendered at least 37 points in each of its past five games.                     

Iowa (-2.5) at Penn State

Gut check time for Penn State this week, but as I surmised this past week, what's left to play for at this point? I guess pride is a factor, but again, I can't imagine any team that had high expectations and has played this poorly so far wants anything more than to just get the hell out of Dodge. Iowa on the other hand has plenty to play for as the Hawkeyes enter at 2-2 having just bludgeoned rival Minnesota this past week. The Hawkeyes have all facets going right now and though this is a road game, it won't feel like one with no fans in the stands. Iowa continues its roll this week while Penn State continues its count down to the end of the season.          

Over (67) Liberty at North Carolina State

 North Carolina State might be the best "over" team in the country right now. The Wolfpack was already headed in that direction before they lost their starting QB, but since the replacement took over, the total points scored in those two games have been 85 and 60 points. Keep in mind that last week they could have scored more if needed, but FSU wasn't keeping up. That won't be an issue this week because Liberty's offense is legit. Liberty is averaging 47.5 points per game on offense over its past four and two of those games came against ACC competition.           

Last Week: 3-2-0, Season: 29-22-0