College Capper: Bowl Edition Part I

Chris' Picks

I crashed and burned last week, probably a predictable outcome given the previous heater, paired with the limited/forced championship weekend slate. Here's hoping that's not a trend entering bowl season, where my choices are again slim, and the turnaround time is more in line with the regular season as opposed to having extensive time to find the clear plus matchups.

Marshall +4.5 vs. Buffalo

Overlooking Marshall's last two games is tough. They've scored only 13 total points while putting up 513 yards of total offense after compiling at least 495 yards in each of their previous two. I'm banking on QB Grant Wells not throwing five INTs here, as he did in a shocking upset loss to Rice. It's strength on strength on the other side of the ball, as Buffalo's nation-leading rushing offense (309.5 ypg, 30 TDs in six outings) faces the Herd's second-ranked rush defense (88.9 ypg, four TDs). Marshall's form here isn't great either, but if Ball State can slow down the Bulls, I think (hope) Marshall can enough and remain competitive.

Louisiana-Lafayette (-14) vs. UTSA

I'm expecting the Ragin' Cajuns to be motivated here and show out. They appear to have retained head coach Billy Napier, and seem upset to mad their rematch against Coastal Carolina was canceled last week. UTSA wants to run as often as possible, and that's a little concerning as it's into the heart of the Lafayette defense's weakness, and the Roadrunners have only lost by this number once this year. But I'm not particularly impressed with UTSA's body of work, with their best showing probably being a seven-point loss to BYU. Louisiana is battle-tested and out to prove a point.

Oklahoma State -2 vs. Miami

Miami has lost three straight bowl games, nine of their last 10, and 10 of their last 12. Loyal readers know they are my team, and I do feel Manny Diaz has this thing going in the right direction. But they were just run through by North Carolina, and the Cowboys have a sound rushing attack even without Chuba Howard. Miami is shorthanded at corner, and their defensive strength has opted out of this game, with star defensive ends Jaelan Phillips and Quincy Roche having moved on. That will give Spencer Sanders plenty of time to make downfield throws. D'Eriq King will do his best to keep the 'Canes in this, but he won't have much help with a struggling run game and a lack of receivers to challenge Okie State's decent pass defense.

Wisconsin (-6.5) vs. Wake Forest

Wisconsin can't score, but Wake Forest can't stop anyone. They've allowed 104 points in their last two games, and an average of 46.5 ppg in their four losses. And Wake's four wins aren't particularly impressive, over just Virginia, Virginia Tech, Campbell and Syracuse. Star running back Kenneth Walker has opted out of the season, and that led their ground attack to struggle against Louisville to end the year. Wisconsin's defense remains elite against both the pass and run, and I expect they'll keep Wake off the scoreboard more times than not, and we'll see glimpses of their vintage rushing attack with Wake also without star defensive lineman Boogie Basham.

Over (71.5) Oklahoma vs. Florida

We all know totals aren't my thing, and playing a number this large is certainly a risk. But these two combine to average 83.4 points. The Gators have been a bit more consistent offensively, and more consistently bad defensively, which should buoy the Sooners attack that's been less than stellar in their final two games. Keep an eye on Gator opt-outs, however. Kyle Pitts is already a no-go, a huge blow to the passing game. If Kadarius Toney and Trevon Grimes follow suit, I'd be a little worried about how successful Kyle Trask can be against a decent Sooners' defense. I'm writing this assuming they all play and with a tight spread, both team trade points and each easily reach the end zone. If we get a sniff of multiple Gator opt-outs, I'd jump on Oklahoma (+3) as quickly as possible.

Last week: 1-3; Season 37-34-2

GREG'S PICKS

It seems fitting that after a season full of streaks, both good and bad, that I end with a 2-2 week. Fitting only because 2020 has been nothing but abnormal. Though it's been a wild year and for the most part, disappointing because of the lack of fans and all the cancellations, one good thing about this season is we get to do two more Capper articles this season. That's right, normally by now we've moved past the Capper portion of the season and it's all about picking every bowl game, which is fun, but it doesn't give you the insight and the focus that the normal weekly article provides. With that in mind, we are rolling straight through the end of the season like these are regular-season games. The last Capper article of the season will be posted next week and include games that take place from December 31st through the end of the bowl season. This week's picks include games that take place between Dec. 24th-Dec. 30th.

Before we get to the picks, a quick recap. My wins were on the Nebraska under and the Alabama over. Nebraska was a sweat, Alabama not so much. Losses on USC and Ohio State. Had a chance if USC could have forced OT, and never had a chance in the OSU game. I would blame the missing players for OSU, but the Buckeyes just looked out of it for most of the game. My guess is the Buckeyes will surprise everyone and somehow play Clemson tight again this year.    

Buffalo (-4.5) vs Marshall

It's a battle of two teams that lost their conference championship, but only one isn't a complete train wreck right now. That aforementioned train wreck in the Marshall Thundering Herd. Marshall didn't embarrass itself this past week against UAB, the 'Herd hung in there all game, but they were favored, they weren't supposed to hang in there, they were supposed to win. The embarrassing game came on 12/5, when the 'Herd failed to score a point…at home…against Rice. Buffalo laid a major egg in its bowl game as well, but to their credit, it was a fluke fumble return for a td that set the 'Bulls on the wrong track. Buffalo has a dynamic offense and a decent defense, Marshall has a decent defense and no offense.           
 

Liberty (+7) vs Coastal Carolina

I think this line is a result of recency bias. Coastal Carolina is only a few weeks removed from a very impressive win over BYU while no one has seen Liberty play since the end of November. No knock on Coastal Carolina, but it didn't face a single P5 team this season. Yes, it did everything it could against its schedule, but the competition was often lacking. Liberty meanwhile faced three P5 teams and beat two of them. Where they great teams? No, but my point is they are battle tested in a way that Coastal Carolina isn't. I see these teams as nearly equal, so getting seven points is a gift. The fact that Liberty has been off for a month is not a big deal to me as teams are regularly off for around a month this time of year.               

Colorado (+9.5) vs Texas 

The Longhorns were really impressive in dismantling Kansas State in their most recent game, but then again, it was Kansas State. Seriously, Texas did play better down the stretch and while I think it should be favored here, 9.5 points seems excessive. Texas is at the end of a long season, with little to play for in this spot, meanwhile, the Buffaloes are just heating up, having played just five games to this point. Colorado was the darling of the PAC 12 after its first four games and while that came to a halt after a loss at Utah. I'm not going to punish them for losing to a good team. I'll take the motivated team with almost ten points against a team that probably just wants this season to end.

Wisconsin (-6.5) vs Wake Forest
Anyone who watched Wisconsin struggle to put away a 13-point underdog this past week probably thinks I'm crazy for this pick, but stick with me for a minute. First, the Badgers issue is on offense, they can't get anything going, so who better to face than a team that plays absolutely no defense in Wake Forest? Second, Wisconsin almost always gets up for bowl games. I've been bitten way too many times thinking that Wisconsin wouldn't show up for a bowl because it missed the Rose Bowl or it came off a heartbreaking loss, but time and time again, the Badgers show up for their bowl games. This number isn't much to get on top of, especially against Wake, which won't be able to slow even a pedestrian Badgers offense.           

Over (50.5) Iowa vs Missouri

Missouri can't play defense, let's start with that. The Tigers held Kentucky, South Carolina and Vanderbilt to a combined 20 points this season. Take another look at that list. Against everyone else, they were terrible. They closed with a stretch where the defense allowed 148 combined points in its final three games. For you non-math majors, that's almost 50 points per game. Iowa has proven more than capable of putting up points this season and this will be the worst defense the Hawkeyes have seen all season. We'll need some help from the Missouri offense however and that shouldn't be a problem as Iowa can play defense, but the Hawkeyes don't have the brick wall as in years past.              

Last Week: 2-2-0, Season: 39-35-0