College Cappers: Picking Winners Week 12

Chris' Picks

A second straight 3-2 week? What's gotten into me? Sad that that's the level of success I'm now content with, but it's just been that kind of year. I like a lot of underdogs this week but don't have the guts to officially take them as I'm scratching to end with a respectable record. They include Navy (+7.5) at Notre Dame, Missouri (+7.5) vs. Florida, Syracuse (+10.5) at Duke and, shockingly, UMass (+40.5) at Northwestern. Favorites I like include Virginia Tech (-5.5) at Georgia Tech, Clemson (-34.5) vs. Wake Forest and Ohio State (-52.5) at Rutgers.

Louisville (-4) at North Carolina State

This looks like a matchup of two teams going in different directions. Yes, Louisville's defense remains porous as evident by the 52 points it allowed at Miami last week; but the Cardinals outgained the Hurricanes in that contest. They've proven dynamic offensively, churning out 225-plus yards on the ground five times while mixing in at least 295 passing yards in three of their last five. The 'Pack, meanwhile, have dropped three straight and four of five, with the smallest defeat by 18 points. They've produced only 20 total points in their last two games while allowing 144 points in their last three. A 36th-rank run defense has allowed 266 yards per game and 10 TDs in three games, and is in a spot for Louisville to churn out big gains.

Georgia (-2.5) at Auburn

Any line movement would have me leery, but under a field goal, I trust Georgia to get this done. It's an obvious defensive clash, where the under looks like a sound play. Both teams want to run, and both defenses are top 20 against the run. That suggests we're picking a winner between Jake Fromm and Bo Nix, and that isn't a difficult decision. Nix hasn't topped 177 yards in four games against ranked opponents with a 5:6 TD:INT ratio. I trust Fromm, and the Bulldogs have an advantage at kicker too, with Rodrigo Blankenship 8-of-11 from 40-plus yards, while Anders Carlson is just 4-of-9. 

Temple (+6) vs. Tulane

Call it writers remorse, but I think I can make a better case for underdogs in the intro, yet I'm sticking with the Owls, and would wait as long as possible to lock in as the spread opened at 4.5 and could get to a touchdown-plus. I'm a huge fan of this Tulane team, but it is just 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS on the road, compared to 5-0 SU and ATS at home. Temple has an inexcusable loss to Buffalo, but otherwise has fallen only to solid opponents in SMU and UCF. The Owls allowed 59 points in four home wins, allowing just three rushing touchdowns and 110.5 yards per game. Temple QB Anthony Russo is completing 71.4 percent of his passes, and is overdue a big game.

Kansas State (-14) vs. West Virginia

I'm trying to not overthink this. Kansas State has 12 rushing scores in its last three wins, and West Virginia has allowed at least three rushing scores in four of its last five. The Mountaineers have lost five consecutive, covering just once in that span, scoring 17 or less in four straight while allowing 38-plus points in four of five. Nothing suggests WVU goes on the road and is competitive.

Cincinnati (-14) at South Florida

I absolutely hate the line movement, as the Bearcats opened at -9.5. But USF is a bad football team that is offensively challenged. It's defeated only a beat-up BYU, ECU, UConn and South Carolina State,  scoring 10 points or less in four of its five losses, with the same ratio coming by double-digits. Cincy is rolling, going 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS with its only defeat coming to Ohio State. The Bearcats scored 94 points in the last two weeks, rushing for 608 yards and eight scores in the process and have held five opponents to 14 points or less. USF's 100th-ranked rush defense is in for a long day.

Last week: 3-2; Season 23-33-1

GREG'S PICKS

Another 3-2 showing last week and I've started to build a little cushion above the .500-line. That's not the goal, of course, it's the floor, but it's nice nonetheless. As for last week, we'll start with the pick that ended with a coach getting fired. Yeah, it's rarely a good idea to take a terrible team in a virtual pick 'em, but hey, I thought the kids from Arkansas would play with pride; I guess not. My other loss was Wisconsin, which seems to be regressing. The wins came easy, with Georgia Tech inside the number the whole game, Georgia choking the life out of Missouri and Illinois winning outright as a two touchdown underdog.  

Virginia Tech (-5.5) at Georgia Tech 

I felt good about Georgia Tech last week as Virginia had trouble putting teams away and the Cavaliers had historically had trouble with the Yellow Jackets, but none of those factors are in play this week. Virginia Tech struggled out of the gate this season, but the Hokies have hit their stride in recent weeks. They easily handled a decent Wake Forest squad last week and nearly beat Notre Dame a week prior. Although Georgia Tech covered last week, its results in the month leading up to that game were terrible, losing by double-digits in three of its four games.     

Ohio State (-52.5) at Rutgers 

This game comes down to one question — will Rutgers score? If not, then it won't cover this number. It sounds strange to say, but it's hard to envision a scenario where Rutgers scores. It will have to be on a turnover or a short-field situation as there is no way that high school offense can put a drive together. As for Ohio State, the Buckeyes will undoubtedly look past this game, but will it matter? If the starters play the entire first half, this game should be 42-0 or better at the half. Something tells me that OSU has good enough reserves to score on Rutgers' first-stringers.              

Minnesota (+3) at Iowa 

I understand this is a tough spot for Minnesota — I actually took Iowa earlier in the season when Penn State came to town — but a lot has happened since then and none of it good for Iowa. While Iowa's season isn't a complete loss, the Hawkeyes are no longer competing for the Big Ten West title and there's still three weeks left. That's got to be tough to swallow for a team that generally has at least one signature win at this point in the season. As for Minnesota, the Gophers showed what they were capable of last week against Penn State and they enter this game as the better team in all phases. If the Gophers can get back up for this game, they should not only cover, but win, maybe with ease.     

Over (59.5) Clemson vs Wake Forest

It's been five weeks since Clemson had a scare against North Carolina, and the Tigers are probably due for another one soon. Considering the Tigers destroyed the Demon Deacons last season, 63-3, this might be a spot where they let up, one defense anyhow. On the other hand, maybe they don't let up, maybe they continue to truck every team in their path and put up another 50 points this week. Either way, this game should go over the total. Wake Forest stumbled last week against Virginia Tech, but the Deacons have plenty of talent on offense, and I expect them to hit pay dirt a few times this week.          

UMass (+40.5) at Northwestern 

UMass is terrible, there is no denying that. The Minutemen surrender more points before 9 a.m. than most teams do all day, but this is probably the worst offense they'll see all season … and they've played Rutgers! Northwestern's season was lost long ago, and I have to wonder if anybody on that team gives a damn at this point. What is a win over UMass going to actually do for the psyche? I bring that up because to cover this number the Wildcats will have to completely shut down the UMass offense, and to do that, they'll have to be focused and energized. Maybe they'll find some focus, but who could get excited to play UMass?       

Last Week: 3-2-0, Season: 28-26-2