College Cappers: Picking Winners Week 2

I noted my lack of confidence last week, and the results showed. Line movements were huge too, as opening numbers hit, while the slides by kickoff pushed things the other direction. Here's hoping I saw enough game action in between my sons' soccer tournaments to have a better Week 2.

Chris' Picks

Tennessee -3.5 vs. BYU

Simply put, the Volunteers have to win this game, or their year, and Jeremy Pruitt's tenure, is going to unravel at the seams. Last week's upset was an anomaly, we think? Prior to that, Tennessee was a projected 10-12 point favorite, so there's some value here despite the line's increase from its -1 opening. The 3.5 number is worrisome, as I expect a lower scoring game, but Tennessee rallies around itself and earns the victory.

Illinois -20.5 at Connecticut

UConn proved yet again it is the worst team in FBS, beating FCS Wagner by three as 23-point favorites in Week 1. Illinois, meanwhile, dismantled Akron with a dominant defensive performance, which will travel. Models have Akron anywhere from a 3-10 point favorite over Connecticut, so the Illini shouldn't have much an issue at least matching last week's 42-3 victory. There's been plenty of line movement too since the 17.5 opening number, but so long as it stays under 21, I see little way Illinois scores too little, or allows too much, to not cover.

Georgia Tech -6 vs. South Florida

Three for three for me with line movement, as this was much more attractive at the -4 number the Yellow Jackets opened with. The Jackets found moderate success on the ground between QB Tobias Oliver and RB Jordan Mason against Clemson, which should lead to success against USF's defense, which allowed 5.4 yards per carry to Wisconsin. I put minimal stock into the Jackets' rush defense being decimated by Clemson's Travis Etienne last week, and USF managed only 1.13 YPC against the Badgers. Effort can't be measured, but the Jackets played hard for new head coach Geoff Collins throughout last Thursday's loss, while South Florida looked checked out on Charlie Strong already. 

Missouri -13.5 vs. West Virginia

The number here is vital, and if it creeps up over two touchdowns, I'm less confident. But West Virginia labored to a win over JMU last week and is 1-10-1 ATS as an underdog the last five years. Missouri's offense wasn't an issue at Wyoming last Saturday, and the upset occurred on seemingly fluke plays from the Cowboys, including two long rushes and a fumble recovery for a score, all within a six minute span. West Virginia is still searching for an offensive identity, which isn't an ideal situation against a team that has one. Missouri rolls.

Syracuse +2 at Maryland

It's time to use line movement to our advantage. The Orange opened as a 5-point favorite, and are now 2-point dogs? Their defense was rightly dominate against Liberty, but the offense didn't show much. Maybe they are looking ahead to Clemson next week, but they also showed very little schematically on offense, and surely have a few plays dialed up. Maryland faces a big step up in class after last week's destruction of Howard, and I don't believe it's up to the task. Virginia Tech QB transfer Josh Jackson was mistake prone in Blacksburg, and the Orange defense will force turnovers in route to a win.

Three for the road, unofficially:

Wyoming -7 at Texas State: An easy letdown spot for Wyoming, but Texas State is a bottom-10 FBS team, and this will be among the lowest point spreads against all year.

Central Florida -10 at Florida Atlantic: Simply an unusually low spread for the high-scoring Golden Knights offense. FAU put up points in the seconnd half against Ohio State, but were gashed early.

New Mexico State +55 at Alabama: Seriously, 55 points? Alabama can cover this at will if it wants to, but its rushing game struggled last week while the passing game flourished. The Crimson Tide will pound the ball, and bleed clock.

Last Week: 2-3; This Season: 4-3

GREG'S PICKS

We all know about bad beats, but is there such as a thing as a bad push? If so, I suffered one last week on the Oklahoma under as that game had no business going over the total. A late 20-yard touchdown run with little more than a minute left pushed the number to 80 points, but it came at a time when Oklahoma could have taken a knee and run out the clock. That's college football, though; never expect a college coach to do the conventional thing, always expect the unexpected. On the whole, it was a 2-2-1 week, with wins on Colorado and the Auburn under and losses with Toledo and Notre Dame. 

Missouri (-13.5) vs. West Virginia

Missouri entered the season with a lot of hype and, well, things didn't go as planned Week 1. The Tigers might have become a victim of their own hype as they got out early, made some mistakes and never recovered. I expect a much better effort this week at home against a recognizable team. Speaking of which, West Virginia is a recognizable name, but this is not going to be a typical Mountaineers team this season. WVU is expected to be terrible this season, and its seven-point win over James Madison last week has not changed that perception.          

Cincinnati (+16.5) at Ohio State 

At first glance, this line looks a little too low, but after further reflection, it makes sense. The Bearcats are not a traditionally strong team, but they were very sound last season and look to be a tough out this season as well. The Buckeyes looked like world beaters in the first quarter of their win over Florida Atlantic last week, but over the final three quarters, they looked a bit lost at times. I expect a better effort from the Buckeyes this week, but the opponent will be much better as well.

Colorado (+4) vs Nebraska 

Teams have every right to improve from week to week, but if these two teams played last week, the Buff's would have won outright, and yet, the Huskers were installed at the favorites this week. The public is in love with the Huskers, which is why they were installed as the favorites and remain the favorites as of this writing. Problem is, they haven't really done anything to deserve this respect. Yes, they have the hot coaching commodity and they looked good at times last year, but if last week is any indication, it could be a disappointing season in Lincoln.

Fresno State (+3) vs Minnesota

Again, the Gophers have every right to improve after their Week 1 performance, but if they don't, it's going to be a long night in Fresno. If they do improve, they'll still have a tough time winning this game as Fresno State is no pushover. The Bulldogs put up a nice fight at USC last Saturday, and you can be sure they haven't forgotten their last-minute loss at Minnesota last season. The Gophers should be better this season, but it looks like they've got some kinks to work out, and that improvement might not come until we get into conference play.  

LSU (-6.5) at Texas 

Much like Nebraska, there is plenty of hype surrounding the Longhorns entering this season. We'll find out if it is deserved this week. The excitement for the Longhorns is based largely on how they played Oklahoma last season combined with their bowl win over Georgia, but I'm not putting nearly as much stock into that bowl win as Georgia was simply not interested. As for LSU, the Tigers look a lot like they've looked every season over the past decade, solid, on the brink of great things, but will everything finally go right? They have all the pieces; they just need to execute and I think they will in this spot.

Last Week: 2-2-1, Season: 3-3-1