College Cappers: Picking Winners Week 9

Chris' Picks

Just when I think I can't be worse, I step up and prove myself wrong. 0-5 last week has me 2-13 over the last three weeks. That's truly impressive when you think about it. Let's see if I can sink further into the abyss, and win y'all some money by doing the obvious, fading.

Army -9 vs. San Jose State

The Black Knights, who are 0-4 ATS and 1-3 SU since Sep. 21, need a get-well game and get one here. We know they run the ball, ranking ninth nationally a 254.6 rushing yards per game, which sets them up for success against San Jose State. The Spartans rank 124th against the run and allowed 382 yards and five scores to a reasonably similar Air Force offense earlier in the year. Mix in the cross-country trip and noon kickoff, and this could get ugly for San Jose State.

Troy +1 at Georgia State

GSU has averaged 279.0 yards per game while scoring 10 times on the ground during their three-game winning streak. Prior to that, they dropped two to lowly Texas State and Western Michigan by a combined 50 points, rushing for just one score and 207 yards per game. I'm banking on Troy's run defense, which ranks 11th nationally, to bottle up the Panthers. Missouri put up a season-high 165 yards against the Trojans, and no other opponent has averaged better than 3.03 yards per carry. A 20th-ranked passing attack that leads to a 33rd scoring offense, Troy was picked to finish second in the Sun Belt East while GSU last. Sure, you can outplay those projections, but they still occurred for a reason. Troy, big (please).

Western Kentucky +5 at Marshall

Marshall bit me last week when I backed FAU -4.5, and because of my slump, I watched the majority of that game. FAU missed tackle after tackle, giving up big play after big play. WKU won't do that. The Hilltoppers rank 22nd in run defense, allowing 110.29 rushing yards per game and 2.96 yards per carry, holding Army to 137 yards and Louisville to 206. Marshall is tied with Louisville at 24th in rushing offense. The Hilltoppers are also stout against the pass, ranking 13th, and the Herd's passing attack involves a lot of chucking and hoping. I'm not sure how WKU scores, but it's allowed only 14 runs of 10-plus yards and just one of 20-plus all year. Low scoring, so maybe under 44.5 is the play, but I'll take the Western and the points.

Pittsburgh -5.5 vs. Miami

As a Miami homer, I'm often too critical of my team, and prefer not including them here; even more so when the spread has jumped 3.5 points since opening. But Miami's offensive line is awful, ranking 127th in sacks allowed (31) and 125th in tackles for loss allowed (60). They have two quarterbacks who are both banged up; N'Kosi Perry played through a separated left shoulder last week while Jarren Williams has played one series in the last 11 quarters with a sore right shoulder. Pitt leads the nation in sacks and forced Syracuse to pull QB Tommy DeVito last week for his own protection. Miami appears on the bring of quitting, and I don't trust HC Manny Diaz or OC Dan Enos to put the offense in a position to succeed against Pitt's aggressive front.

Virginia -3.5 at Louisville

Seeing this line at the beginning of the year, everyone would have pounded the Cavaliers, so this does feel like a set up. UVA has struggled offensively with a lack of firepower at skill positions, but the defense is borderline elite, ranking 14th against the run, 12th against the pass and 24th in scoring, giving up more than 17 points just twice. Louisville is certainly playing better each week and Scott Satterfield has this thing going in the right direction, but they're still woeful defensively, allowing 44.5 points through four ACC games. If UVA sniffs that number, they'll win by 2-3 touchdowns.

Last week: 0-5; Season: 16-25-1

GREG'S PICKS

Perhaps the tide has turned. After a slow start to the season, I've now posted two winning weeks in a row. Last week was full of big spreads and I was on the right side of most of them. The winners were Oklahoma, which covered with relative ease, Minnesota, which started slowly, but finished strong and Illinois, which won outright as a 30-point dog. The losers were Oklahoma State, which lost as a favorite to a Baylor team that just finds a way to win, and Georgia, which failed to cover a big number in sloppy conditions.    

Purdue (-9.5) vs. Illinois

It seems strange that a Purdue team, which has not shown much of anything this season is nearly a 10-point favorite against a team that just beat Wisconsin, but the oddsmakers are aware of what generally happens to bad teams following a huge win. Illinois was headed nowhere this season, and while the win over Wisconsin was huge, it's not going to change the trajectory of its season. Purdue has underperformed for much of the year, but the Boilermakers seem to be adjusting to life without their top-two playmakers on offense. I expect Purdue to continue its improvement and Illinois to struggle with its focus.  

Over (52.5) Nebraska vs. Indiana 

If these two teams were to play a month from now, the total would be much higher, but due to the opposition that both of these teams have faced early in the season, the number is skewed. Nebraska scored only 27 points in its last three games, but one of those was in tough conditions, one was against Ohio State and the last was against Northwestern, which likes to muck it up. Indiana has been a part of some low-scoring games, but when the Hoosiers have played a capable opponent, the score has been 60-plus. Heck, there were 71 points scored when they played Michigan State. The Hoosiers will get theirs as the offense continues to improve. The only way this goes under is if Nebraska is more of a mess than it appears.           

Maryland (+16.5) at Minnesota 

Here in Minnesota it's tough to avoid hearing about the Gophers' 7-0 start, and while they started slowly in conference play, with a couple very close calls, they've really upped their game. This pick has nothing to do with the caliber of the Gophers this season, though. It's simply a very tricky spot. The Gophers aren't used to being huge favorites against middle-tier Big Ten teams. They're used to being the middle-tier team. They also have a look-ahead to deal with, as one more win and they could be up against an undefeated Penn State team in two weeks. As for Maryland, the Terps have been awful the last few weeks, but that has a lot to do with injuries, and they might be getting back a couple key pieces this week.  

Northwestern (+10) vs. Iowa

It's a Big Ten kind of week and I'm going back to the well with the Wildcats. If there's one thing we know, it's Northwestern prefers to make the game ugly. Iowa doesn't mind getting dirty either. I watched a lot of the Iowa game last week against Purdue, and my one takeaway was that Iowa has even less offense than usual. Iowa's schedule has been pretty tough so far and it may have stunted the growth of this offense. Perhaps they break out in this spot, but I don't see it. Northwestern was routed by Ohio State last week and it lost to MSU by 21, but against everyone else, including Wisconsin, the 'Cats managed to stay within 10 points.       

Alabama (-31) vs Arkansas 

This line opened at -33 and it quickly dropped to -31, which tells us … nothing actually. There's a common fallacy that if a line moves right after it opens, it's because the sharps moved it, but if that were the case, then we could just track every line movement and be on the proper side each week. If you've tried that, you know it doesn't work. Anyhow, as for this game, Tua Tagovailoa is out and the 'Bama defense is vulnerable — how in the heck are they going to cover 31 points? Easy, everyone on that team is going to step up their game, knowing that they'll need to be better without Tua.     

Last Week: 3-2-0, Season: 20-19-2