Memphis vs Tulane Best Bets
Heading into this season, and even as recently as a few weeks ago, this loomed as a huge matchup in the Group of Five. There was reason to believe the winner of this game would have the inside track on making the playoffs. Now, if Memphis doesn't win at home Friday, it is out of the running, and Tulane has already eliminated itself. That doesn't mean the Tigers and Green Wave don't both have something to play for, as this game remains quite relevant in the battle for the AAC title. Plus, Jon Sumrall has to bolster his resume for a bigger job.
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Memphis vs Tulane Betting Odds
Spread: Memphis -3.5 (Caesars Sportsbook), Tulane +3.5 (ESPN Bet
Total: Over 53.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook); Under 54.5 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Memphis -164 (FanDuel Sportsbook), Tulane +145 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Though the Green Wave slipped up in their last outing, the spread here indicates a belief that they are still a good team. Or, at least, good enough not to be blown out by the Tigers. While Tulane is now relegated to playing spoiler, the team would surely like to spoil things for Memphis.
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Memphis vs Tulane Betting Picks
No Group of Five team was in the first top 25 in the college football playoff rankings from the committee. Memphis is evidently the highest-rated of those teams, though. The Tigers have beaten most of their opponents soundly, and they beat Arkansas and South Florida as well. However, all it took was one disastrous day in Birmingham to throw Memphis' season into disarray. The UAB Blazers, fresh off firing Trent Dilfer, pulled off a massive upset over the Tigers. It was only a seven-point loss, but the Tigers were favored by over three touchdowns in that one. If Memphis wins out, it will likely make the playoffs, but it absolutely has to win out.
Tulane got blown out by Ole Miss, but that was a loss that, in theory, it could overcome. After all, if Tulane won every other game, it would be undefeated in conference play and AAC champs. Then, last week, UTSA didn't just beat Tulane. The Roadrunners won 48-26. That definitely put a damper on this game, also on the Green Wave SP+ ranking. Tulane fell nine spots, all the way to 66th. Comparatively, Memphis ranks 29th.
The Tigers are at home, and if that SP+ chasm is instructive at all, they should be able to win by over four points, and comfortably so. There are no pertinent health concerns among either team's offensive weapons, and Memphis has plenty of weapons to choose from. The Tigers rank 13th in offense SP+, while the Green Wave rank 83rd defensively. Memphis should be able to tear through Tulane's defense and also get plenty of points. After all, even in that UAB loss, it scored 24 points. The only other team to hold Memphis under 30 points is Troy, but Memphis scored 28 in that game, it was on the road, and it won by three touchdowns.
Anything can happen in a college football game between conference mates, but given everything these two teams have done I fully expect Memphis to win, and win comfortably. You can't insulate yourself from upsets, but the line does not reflect the level of upset this would be.
Memphis vs Tulane Best Bet: Memphis -3.5 (Caesars Sportsbook)
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Memphis vs Tulane Betting Predictions
The Green Wave should score some points, as the Tigers don't have a great defense. However, former BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff is pretty much the entirety of the Tulane offense. Nobody else has managed to stand out at running back or receiver. Memphis' quarterback Brendon Lewis hasn't been quite as good as Retzlaff, but Sutton Smith, Greg Desrosiers, and Frank Peasant have all averaged over 5.0 yards per carry and scored at least six rushing touchdowns. Lewis has eight rushing scores of his own, by the way. Additionally, receiver Cortez Braham has 39 catches for 632 yards and seven touchdowns.
Memphis should have no issue clearing 30 points once again unless some bounces go against them. That's essentially what happened in Birmingham, and UAB still needed a goal-line stand at the end of the game to avoid a trip to overtime, where Memphis would have likely avoided the upset. While an over/under number of 54.5 is pretty lofty, I can definitely see this one getting there.
Memphis 38, Tulane 24
Memphis vs Tulane Best Bets for Friday, November 7
Greg Desrosiers, Memphis – Anytime touchdown (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Desrosiers is -115 to score a touchdown in this game. Obviously, I think the Memphis offense is going to score a few touchdowns in this one, and the player I felt best about when it comes to finding the end zone is Desrosiers. It's partially that he has seven rushing scores, which is second only to his quarterback, Lewis. The other part of it is that Desrosiers is the running back who is part of the passing game. He has 21 catches for 142 yards and a touchdown. That slight bit of a different dimension to his game put me over the edge.
Javin Gordon, Tulane – Under 42.5 rushing yards (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Gordon, a true freshman, has only topped this number twice. Those also happen to be the two games in which he has gotten 15 carries. In every other game, Gordon has had 12 carries or fewer. Last week, he had only five. If Tulane ends up chasing this game, Retzlaff will likely be throwing the ball more, which will mean fewer opportunities for Gordon. Even if Memphis' defense isn't great, a lack of opportunity could keep Gordon under 42 rushing yards.
