College Football Betting: CFB Week 2 Recap and Reactions and Best Bets for Week 3

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Published on September 13, 2023

College Football Week 2 Betting Roundup

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I have started the 2023 College Football season going 12-5 against the spread (ATS) for 71.4% winning bets, tacking on to the last three seasons that have earned an 88-41-3 ATS record, good for 68.2% winning bets.

How Did Underdogs Perform in Week 2?

The Underdogs in Week 2 held their own with a 42-40-2 ATS record (51.2%) while going 11-73 straight-up (SU). The Over-Under results were equally as flat, going 41-42-1. Of the 11 upsets in Week 2, home underdogs accounted for six of them and, through the first two weeks, have gone 11-26-1 SU (30%) and 19-18-1 ATS (51.4%), including an 18-19-1 Over-Under record. So, the market has priced these situational matchups quite well.

Double-digit underdogs were not barking nearly loud enough, posting a 2-55 SU record, 30-26-1 ATS, and 29-27-1 Over-Under mark in Week 2. Double-digit road dogs did fairly well, posting a 28-23-1 ATS record good for 55% winning bets but just 1-51 SU. Drilling down furth into the database, we discover that road double-digit underdogs that lost their week 1 game went 14-6-1 ATS for 70% winning bets, but none of them won the game in Week 2. Through two weeks of action, double-digit road underdogs, who lost in the previous week, have produced a 17-7-1 ATS mark for 71% winning bets, but none of them pulled off the outright win.

College Football Betting Tools

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How Did Totals Do in Week 2?

Last season, the market averaged a 53.7-point total. In Week 2, totals priced at 53.5 or fewer points, the Over did well, posting a 48-30-2 record for 62% winning bets. In games with a total of 54 or more points, the Under did even better, posting a 58-34-4 mark, good for 63% winning bets. Through two weeks of action totals priced at 53.5 or fewer points saw the Over bet produce a 110-84-2 record for 57% winning bets and games with posted totals of 54 and higher points produced a profitable 122-84-4 record for 59% winning bets. So, I recommend taking a look at games and basing the handicap on the pivot point of 53.5 points.

For nearly three decades, one of the many betting opportunities I have looked to place bets on dogs of 17.5 or more points, especially in conference matchups. Be sure to check out the details of these betting opportunities here.

These monster dogs have produced a 4-96 SU record, 56-42-2 ATS for 57% winning bets, including a solid 56-43-1 Over-Under mark for 57% winning Over best through the first two weeks of this season. If these dogs were on the road, they have produced a 3-92 SU record but an impressive 54-39-2 ATS mark good for 58% winning bets, including a 54-40-1 Over record for 57.4% winners.

College Football Betting Algorithm

The following betting system has earned a highly profitable 28-15-1 ATS for 65% winning bets since 1992. The requirements are to simply bet on road underdogs of 22.5 or more points in the first four weeks of the regular season and are coming off a game in which they were outgained by 170 or more yards and with the opponent coming off a game in which they won the turnover battle.

College Football Live Betting Strategy

Now, if our dog is winning 14-7, the live line may be adjusted lower to potentially 17.5 points but still representing excellent value, knowing that the average cover has been 12.3 points based on the closing line spanning the past 10 seasons. Unless our dog is winning by double-digits after the first quarter, I pass on this in-game betting opportunity. However, I will look to get a line that matches the closing line during the second quarter of action.

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College Football Expert Picks for Week 3

Here are the Double-digit underdogs on the Week 3 card that represent a solid starting point to handicap these games. You may agree with these dogs or not, and they are meant as a starting point for your handicapping research. My best bets are highlighted in yellow.

Double-digit underdogs to monitor based on model (best bets highlighted in yellow)

Virginia +14.5 vs Maryland
UTEP +17 vs Arizona
Florida Atlantic +24 vs Clemson
Colorado State +23.5 vs Colorado
Western Michigan +28.5 points vs Iowa
Northern Illinois +10.5 points vs Nebraska
San Diego State +24.5 points vs Oregon State

Drilling down further into the database reveals a subset of the betting system detailed above and serves to narrow down the possible best bet opportunities. As Week 3 approaches, the focus moving forward will be on 17.5 or greater dogs that lost and failed to cover their previous game. Through two weeks, this situation has produced a 0-6 SU record but a perfect 6-0 ATS record, including a 6-0 under mark. There are four situations that are solid betting total under betting opportunities this week.

Unders to monitor based on model (best bets highlighted in yellow)

San Diego State +24.5 points vs Oregon State: Under 48.5 points
Western Michigan +28.5 points vs Iowa: Under 43 points
Florida Atlantic +24.5 points vs Clemson: Under 52 points
Colorado State +23.5 points vs Colorado: Under 59 points

College Football Best Bet for Week 3

Betting Line: Colorado -23.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Total: 59 points (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Best Bet: Colorado State +23.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

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From the Predictive Model

My predictive model expects Colorado State to score 24 or more points and to force Colorado into at least two turnovers. In past games in which Colorado State met or exceeded these measures has led them to a highly profitable 9-6 SU record and a 12-3 ATS mark good for 75% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

Colorado vs. Colorado State Breakdown

This line opened with the Colorado Buffalo favored by 18 points several weeks ago, and the price has now moved quickly to 22.5 points and has the momentum to get even higher ahead of kickoff Saturday night. Colorado has a huge showdown on the road in Eugene, Oregon, with PAC-12 conference rival the Oregon Ducks in Week 4 action, and the look-ahead is going to be a distraction this week. They are a young team with a freshman quarterback who just happens to be the son of a Hall of Fame NFL player Deion Sanders. Even for coach Sanders and his vast playing experience from Florida State to the Hall, managing this situation and keeping his team focused in the present will be monumentally difficult.

The Colorado State football team has heard enough media news about how great their in-state rival has become overnight and will surely be highly motivated to knock them down to size. They return 12 starters from last year's season, with four on offense, the punter, and seven on defense. Having seven returning starters on the defensive side of the ball is one of the many reasons I like them in this matchup. Head coach Jay Norvell has a 4-2-5 defensive scheme, and having those five defensive backs is going to make it far more difficult for Sanders to make the correct pre-snap reads and then make the correct throws in space after the snap. The defense steadily improved their play last season and added cornerback Ron Hardge III from Oregon State. They have great leadership, with six seniors or graduate seniors on the defensive side.

On offense, Colorado State already has the best quarterback in sophomore redshirt transfer Clay Millen, who led the FBS in passer completion percentage last season. They also have arguably the best wide receiver in the Mountain West in Tory Horton, who caught 71 passes for 1,131 yards, averaging 14.5 yards per reception and scoring 18 TDs.