DraftKings College Football DFS Picks: Week 4 Plays

College Football DFS: DraftKings CFB Week 4 Plays and Lineup Strategy

Welcome to our Week 4 CFB DFS breakdown with a look at the DraftKings main slate. I'm excited for this week just in general; games like Utah vs Texas Tech and Indiana vs Illinois are matchups I've been looking forward to since the summer. And on top of it, we've got a killer slate of games for our DFS interests. 

The big thing you'll notice -- I'm probably not even the first person to alert you to this -- is the receiver pricing. You basically get to choose your own adventure. 

The top-billed wideout, Antonio Williams, is just $7,200 (and possibly hurt still, so we'll probably leave that alone). Harrison Wallace, who has the most receiving yards of anyone on this slate, is $4,100. Eric McAlister is $6,900 with five catches on the year, while teammate Jordan Dwyer, who is crushing it, checks in at just $5,600.

Those are just a few examples to show that roster builds for this slate will be very interesting. You can go shopping in the luxury aisles at QB and running back and still end up with a conventionally strong group of receivers at a minimal hit to your salary cap. Also, the sheer volume of quality value options at receiver will likely flatten roster percentages, making it somewhat easier to cobble together a unique lineup 

Matchup Info

High Totals, Tight Spreads

Finding a game with a high over/under where both teams are expected to be competitive is always a primary goal for building our lineups. Games like that create a great scoring environment on both sides with little worry about the star players being pulled, like we do when a game gets lopsided. 

• TCU vs SMU: The Iron Skillet game headlines the slate with a 62.5 total and a seven-point spread in favor of the Horned Frogs. TCU's team total sits at 34.75 and SMU's is 27.75. That'll be a popular game to load up on and with good reason.
• Ole Miss vs Tulane: We're looking at an interesting non-con game with Ole Miss giving 13.5 points in a game with a 61.5 total. There seems to be some confusion as to who Ole Miss is starting at quarterback, but signs point to Trinidad Chambliss getting another start. The total hasn't budged, so it should be all systems go on both sides in this one.

• Memphis vs Arkansas: Oh yeah. 60.5 total, Memphis getting 7.5 points at home. Both teams expected to score north of 26 points. I'm going to be very interested in this'n. 

Quarterback

Taylen Green, Arkansas ($8,400) at Memphis

Green has been nothing short of sensational this season. By our rankings, no quarterback has scored more fantasy points (130.0) than Green. And it's not really close as John Mateer is next up with 107. And yet, Green is QB8 on this slate by salary, and $1,200 less than the disappointing Cade Klubnik. 

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Green is on the road, but it's at Memphis. The Tigers are solid this season and have gotten some consideration in the Coaches Poll but it's gonna take a lot more than "solid" to slow down Green. 

He'll be chank but it's going to be good chalk. You can differentiate elsewhere with your lineup builds but fading Green on this slate seems like overthinking. 

CJ Bailey, NC State ($7,800) at Duke

This is an appealing undercard game that could have some real juice to it. Bailey has been excellent thus far in terms of efficiency, even if the fantasy numbers aren't gaudy...yet. He's completing 71 percent of his passes at an 8.1 YPA clip. Additionally, he's punched in three rushing scores and is running seven times per game. 

This game should be back-and-forth, with both teams expected to challenge for 30 points. Darian Mensah ($7,400) is a nice play in a vacuum or if you want to stack this game. Mensah has hit the 300-yard mark in each game thus far and has thrown multiple touchdowns each week as well. 

On the game stacking front, it's worth noting that NC State gives up the second most passing yards per game on this slate (297.3) while Duke's 9.2 YPA allowed is the worst. Great offensive environment in this one. 

Jake Retzlaff, Tulane ($7,100) at Ole Miss

I'm not calling an upset here by any means. I think Ole Miss is a two-touchdown favorite for a good reason. But Retzlaff is in a great setup here. He has had to do everything for the Tulane offense so far, and he's done it well. He ranks sixth in fantasy points per game among quarterbacks, ahead of the likes of Fernando Mendoza, Behren Morton and Jayden Maiava. 

Retzlaff has yet to really take off as a passer, with just two scores through the air and 522 yards in three starts. The real appeal is the rushing. He's Tulane's leading rusher in both volume (40 carries) and yardage (288) while also punching in six touchdowns. Ole Miss has not been good against the run or running quarterbacks. 

We might not be primed for an overly efficient day from Retzlaff, but we can expect a busy day nonetheless, with plenty of opportunities through the air and on the ground to hit value on $7,100.

Running Back

With receiver being so cheap, we can feel good about jamming multiple premier running backs into our lineups this week. I'm not bargain bin hunting at the position unless it's absolutely necessary. Here are some of my favorite, if obvious, running back plays.

Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame ($9,000) vs Purdue

I feel like a broken record. Or maybe I hang around too many Notre Dame folks. But this has to be the week Notre Dame gets Love going, right? Last week was a good start after puzzling light usage in Week 1. He had 27 combined touches (23 carries, four catches) for over 140 all-purpose yards and two touchdowns. That's more like it.

It might be greedy to ask for that many opportunities again in a game that Notre Dame should win going away. But we should see the efficiency ramp up in a big way. In last year's record-breaking drubbing of Purdue, Love needed just 10 carries to go for 109 and a score. 

This week, I think 12-15 carries is in the offing with similar efficiency. And just like last year, Purdue is catching ND off a gut-wrenching loss. Notre Dame is gonna get out its frustrations. Poor Purdue. 

Hollywood Smothers, NC State ($8,600) at Duke

Another piece of the NC State-Duke game, Smothers projects extremely well in this spot. He's been one of the most productive backs in the country so far this season and gets to take on a Duke defense that surrenders nearly 150 rushing yards per game. 

Duke has given up seven rushing touchdowns in the last two weeks vs Illinois and Tulane. Smothers, who has three touchdowns already, should add to that tally Saturday. 

Demon June, North Carolina ($4,600) at UCF

A big game against Richmond is doing a lot of the heavy lifting in June's overall stat line but I'm starting to buy in. UNC's backfield has been a headache for fantasy players so far with Davion Gause entering the year as the favorite to lead, only to be usurped by Caleb Hood. Now it seems like June has the hot hand.

June should be in line for double-digit carries against a UCF defense that coughs up 162 rushing yards per game. 

The total in that game feels low, generally. I don't trust UNC options much beyond June, but UCF should be able to put up some points. A lineup with the right UCF stack would benefit with June as a runback option. 

Also Consider

• Justice Haynes, Michigan ($7,500) at Nebraska
• Mike Washington, Arkansas ($6,900) at Memphis
• Dilin Jones, Wisconsin ($6,200) vs Maryland

Wide Receiver

As mentioned above, you can basically do whatever you want at receiver this week. It creates a weird dynamic. The illusion of choice. There will still be right and wrong answers. It's not a sinch that every underpriced player will smash value. Nor is it a guarantee that just because you pay up for a receiver, it will pan out. You still need to hunt for good offensive environments and players with roles that set up well for DraftKings scoring.

Here's this week's target cheat sheet. I filtered it to receivers on this slate with at least an 18% team target share who also average at least 8.8 yards per target. Those are fairly arbitrary thresholds, but they still tend to paint a good picture of who is A.) Getting Volume and B.) Maximizing It.

Harrison Wallace, Mississippi ($4,100) vs Tulane

Sorry, Penn State fans. You have to admit it's a little funny that your receivers were the most maligned part of your team last year, and that included Wallace. Now he has found greener pastures in Oxford, and it's fair to say that he's winning the breakup so far. 

Wallace averages an explosive 13.6 yards per target while commanding a 28.7 percent target share. We don't have to fret over a fall-off without Austin Simmons, either. He caught six passes for 92 yards and a score last week with Trinidad Chambliss at the helm. 

Tulane's pass defense metrics have been strong thus far, but the Wave ain't seen an offense like this. Plus, $4,100 for arguably the best receiver on the slate is just something you have to take into account.

If you want a less chalky part of the OIe Miss passing game, Deuce Alexander is min-priced and pulling in a 14% target share. Dae'Quan Wright ($3,700) doesn't see as many targets but is explosive (15.8 YPT whew)

Iron Skillet Plays

• Jordan Dwyer, TCU ($5,600): Top target for TCU in the best offensive environment game on the slate. 14 catches for 225 yards and two scores is pretty impressive. Only drawback will be massive roster %.
• Eric McAlister, TCU ($6,900): This is for GPPs only but I think the tournament logic is there. McAlister was being drafted in the third round of CFF best ball contests over the summer and has gotten off to a dreadful start (5.8 DK PPG). He's expensive, too, at $6,900. With so many other values on the board who are producing better, we might see a microscopic roster percentage. If McAlister finally wakes up, that would mean huge leverage on the field. 
• Ed Small, TCU ($3,000): Small was getting some steam as a possible contributor over the summer, and it's starting to come to fruition. The freshman caught all six of his targets for 45 yards and two scores last week. It was against Abilene Christian, but that had to leave an impression on the staff. He's min-priced, too, and could get some opportunities here. 
• Romello Brinson, SMU ($4,100): Brinson has been going ballistic so far this year with 15 catches for 314 yards and three scores on 20 targets. Will be chalky, like Dwyer, but likely worth it, especially at $4,100.
• Jalen Cooper, SMU ($3,700): Similar deal to Brinson. High target share (19.5) and great efficiency (13.5 YPT). 
• RJ Maryland, SMU ($3,800): Might be overlooked here because he hasn't done much. When the day comes that Maryland has no believers left, that means I'm dead. He can still play. He's coming off a nasty injury last year but has been able to play in each game so far. Maryland has also caught eight of 10 targets. I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if he's a factor in this game Saturday.

Cooper Barkate, Duke ($4,600) vs NC State

This is a great game to target if you want to pivot away from the Skillet. Bad defenses on both sides and great quarterback play. Barkate has been Mensah's target thus far with a 21 percent target share and 10.9 yards per target. He has reached double-digit points in all three games so far despite not finding the end zone yet.

Something tells me he can finally punch in his first score this weekend and even if he doesn't, he projects for 5+ catches with solid efficiency. That'll work at $4,600.

Looking for something different from Duke? Que'Sean Brown ($5,400) has also been productive despite some bad touchdown luck. Lastly, all Andrel Anthony ($4,900) does is score touchdowns with three on 11 grabs. 

Also Consider

• O'Mega Blake, Arkansas ($6,200) at Memphis
• Jamari Hawkins, Memphis ($3,200) vs Arkansas
• Bryant Wesco, Clemson ($6,200) vs Syracuse
• Terrance Carter, Texas Tech ($3,600) at Utah  -- check on health status before kickoff