College Football Draft Kit: Industry Mock Draft Musings

Earlier this month, I participated in an industry mock with 11 other college fantasy football experts. It was a two-quarterback format featuring 16 rounds and every team had to draft a kicker and a defense. Below are the results of the draft with some commentary and rants interspersed throughout.

Being that this was my first mock of draft season, I had no idea what to expect picking from the 10 spot. I anticipated quarterback to fly off the board early, leaving me with plenty of stud running backs to choose from with my first pick. Clearly I misread the room and had to pivot. 

Going with Rourke at 10 felt like a rock-solid first pick; his production has been both explosive and consistent since taking over in 2017, posting back-to-back 38-touchdown seasons. Ohio has to retool a lot of its offense, both along the line and at the skill positions, but Rourke is steady enough to guide the Bobcats through those possible growing pains. I hoped that one of Adrian Martinez or Patrick Taylor Jr. would be there for my next pick, but obviously Nathan Marchese and I have similar taste. With that, Bryce Perkins was my next pick. 

Perkins feels a tad underrated heading into this year. He lost a Swiss Army Knife in Olamide Zacchaeus, who was an incredible source for easy completions. Jordan Ellis is also gone, but with Virginia's lack of proven talent at running back, more of the run game focus could be shifted to Perkins. A season with 3,000 passing yards and 1,000 rushing yards is in the ballpark for him. 

After leaving the first two rounds without a running back, I knew I had to attack that position with at least one of my next two picks.

Larry Rountree is someone whose ADP I expect to rise as draft season progresses. He checks in with my fourth-highest rushing yardage projection with 1,388 yards thanks to standout talent coupled with a lack of competition for carries. He's someone I'm betting on this year, and in a mock this early where ADP isn't close to being established, Rountree is a player I wanted to plant a flag on.

Looking elsewhere from this cluster of picks, I really liked the Spencer Sanders, Kylin Hill, Tyler Johnson, and JD Spielman selections.

Holton Ahlers is the most polarizing player for me in this range. He had a dominant stretch last season, as shown below, but so much of that production was volume-driven. 

In other words, Ahlers benefited from an ECU system that ran 84.0 plays per game, ranking 3rd in FBS. His YPA (6.9) and completion percentage (50.6) were mediocre marks, and the coaching change for East Carolina could prove problematic for Ahlers. Mike Houston comes to ECU from James Madison in the FCS ranks, where his Dukes ran just 68.4 plays per game in 2018. Even if East Carolina's plays per game doesn't plummet all the way to that mark, any sort of significant drop-off in play count could crater Ahler's fantasy value if he doesn't make major improvements. 

I knew I was going to go running back and receiver with this pair of picks but wasn't sure who I was specifically going to target. Koback seemed like a safe bet at this stage after looking at what else was available at the position. From Week 6 onward, Koback averaged 85.7 rushing yards and 1.3 rushing scores per game, and that was while Toledo was mixing in two other running backs. Art Thompkins is on Connecticut's Football Team* now, so that's one less player to drain carries from Koback. In leagues with all FBS teams, Koback is someone I'll continue to target in this range. 

The official tight end run began in earnest during this stage of the draft, and after Jared Pinkney came off the board, I knew I was probably going to be waiting awhile and stocking up on other positions while the rest of the upper echelon tight ends were snatched up. 

This was probably my favorite two-round turn in the draft. In Roberson I was locking in a high target share of one of the nation's most pass-happy offenses. Improved quarterback play could unlock another level for Roberson alongside James Proche.

Emery was another statement pick. LSU only returns one other running back with significant experience, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and he's a marginal talent. Edwards-Helaire, a former three-star recruit, averaged just 4.5 YPC last year. Yes, YPC is a noisy stat and 4.5 was actually better than Nick Brossette's 4.3 mark, but my belief is that Emery can come in and produce far better numbers right away. LSU has national title aspirations, and if Emery is as advertised, it won't be shy about using him as the starter over a less talented but more experienced player like Edwards-Helaire.

Ricky Slade is a player I've had on my radar since his days as a recruit. The combination of Miles Sanders and Trace McSorley led to a limited rushing sample for Slade as a freshman, but it was promising nonetheless as he racked up six touchdowns on 45 carries and averaged 5.7 YPC. Now that the runway is clear for Slade, he projects for a major workload that will enable him to showcase his five-star caliber talent. 

Elijah Mitchell, Pat Freiermuth, Jafar Armstrong, and Alan Bowman were my other favorite players to go in this range.

In fairness to my first pick here, this draft took place a few days before Holloman was dismissed from the team. 

My other pick, Deon Jackson, is someone to keep on sleeper lists this offseason. He quietly enjoyed a breakout last season, racking up 1,100 yards from scrimmage and nine total touchdowns. He showed natural ability as a pass catcher, hauling in 26 of 35 targets for 253 yards and two of his touchdowns. A healthy Brittain Brown will challenge for carries of course, but Jackson projects as the leader in this backfield and will be one of my favorite late round targets all draft season.

Two receivers stood out from this cluster of picks and those selections deserve some praise. CFB Winning Edge going after Nate Craig-Myers is an upside play that could change the shape of leagues if it pays off right. The former No.6 receiver in his recruiting class never really got off the ground at Auburn. He'll have a chance to follow in the footsteps of recent second-chance success stories like Michael Gallup and Preston Williams in Fort Collins. He's got the talent and he'll have the opportunity to post major production, even if he doesn't quite reach the levels that his predecessors did. 

The other receiver who caught my eye in this cluster is Emeka Emezie out of North Carolina State. Kelvin Harmon and Jakobi Meyers stole most of the headlines out of Raleigh last season, and with good reason, but Emezie was a steady force in his role, too. He caught 47 of 70 targets (67.1 percent) for 580 yards (8.29 YPT) and five scores. The runway is clear for him to take on the top target share and it wouldn't shock me to see him push for close to 30 percent of the 'Pack's targets. At 6-foot-3, 210, Emezie has the frame and talent to do a lot with that level of volume. Love the pick there at 139 overall.

If this weren't an industry mock, I might not have gone for my third quarterback here. But in the interest of planting a flag, I wanted to get it out there that I am a Joey Gatewood believer. He's huge—6-foot-5 and 233 pounds to be exact—with athleticism and a cannon arm to match. Gatewood was rated the No.1 athlete in the 2018 recruiting class and having a year under his belt in Auburn's system helps his understanding of the system and his position-specific skills.

Speaking of the system, Gus Malzahn taking back over as the play-caller makes me bullish on Auburn's offense as a whole. Gatewood have to win the job over early enrollee five-star freshman Bo Nix, but if he pulls it off, he'll be positioned to be the best quarterback Auburn has had for fantasy purposes since the Nick Marshall era.

Cal was my choice for defense. The Justin Wilcox era in Berkeley looks a lot different than what we've come to expect from the Golden Bears as defense rules the day. They return 78 percent of their defensive production from a 2018 team that forced the sixth-most turnovers in FBS (28). As long as the offense doesn't constantly go three-and-out or put the defense in short field situations, California will be a strong team defense option once again.

There was a reason why I waiting until my last pick to fill tight end. I thought hard about going with Harrison Bryant out of FAU but went after Cal instead, and of course I got burned as he was off the board by my next pick. So why Tucker? For one, he might be the most talented pass-catcher that North Carolina returns this season. He ranked in fifth in yards per target among tight ends with at least 20 targets last season (12.0) and his career catch rate sits at a strong 77.5. His role in the offense should expand as the team's second-leading returning pass-catcher and if I'm wrong, it's not a huge deal. He was my last pick and the difference between TE10 and TE20 last year was just 14.9 points in standard scoring.

And of course I had to nab Georgia's Rodrigo Blankenship as my kicker. He is our No.2 ranked kicker and he also made my All-Name Team for kickers, a massive achievement.