College Football Fantasy Five: Pac 12 Analytics, Systems and Trends

College Football Fantasy Five: Pac 12 Analytics, Systems and Trends

This article is part of our College Football Fantasy Five series.

Even though there are no official college football games being played, it doesn't mean that we can't start preparing for the 2022 fantasy college football season. I've already revealed my top five new head coach landing spots with significant college fantasy football (CFF) implications. 

Now I'm going to dig into each conference to find some interesting offensive trends with an emphasis on Offensive Yards Per Play data over the last five seasons. Offensive YPP is a great indicator for a team's true efficiency and is extremely relevant for CFF purposes. I'll also sprinkle in some team passing and rushing percentages which help us understand whether a team has a tendency towards a certain play style on offense. Please be aware that 2020 was an odd season with the COVID-19 protocols and a smaller sample size of games.

Big Ten Offensive Analytics and Trends (6/6/22)
ACC Analytics, Systems and Trends (6/13/22)
Big 12 Analytics, Systems and Trends (6/21/22)

Here are five interesting trends and patterns that popped off the paper at me:

Top Five Offensive Trends and Analytics for the Pac-12 

5.) Stanford Passing Game Could Surprise in 2022

   20212020201920182017
Stanford Rank10251822718
  Off YPP5.25.845.596.276.45
  Total Yards36331961441547455441
  Total Pass Att373174444407363
  Total Rush Att324162346350480
  Pass %53.52%51.79%56.20%53.76%43.06%

The Cardinal's projected 2022 offense has fantasy value stamped all over it in my opinion. A big reason why is the public's misconception of what David Shaw's modern offense is. The first half of his 12-year tenure at Stanford was with a run-heavy scheme, but that has mostly changed over the last four years with his team's throwing the ball more than they run it. It was a tough year in 2021, but I see this team making a huge leap behind second-year QB Tanner McKee's development and 10 returning offensive starters.

CFF Players to Consider
TE Benjamin Yurosek (ADP ~ Rounds 10-12)
QB Tanner McKee (ADP ~ Sleeper Potential)
RB E.J. Smith (ADP ~ Sleeper Potential)
WR Michael Wilson (ADP ~ Sleeper Potential)

4.) Oregon is Too Talented to Go Away

   20212020201920182017
Oregon Rank389275138
  Off YPP6.37.226.346.036.1
  Total Yards59312325606353515732
  Total Pass Att411144446385311
  Total Rush Att535178510502628
  Pass %43.45%44.72%46.65%43.40%33.12%

There's a new regime in Eugene which could lead some to pause on expecting their previous success, yet there's so much talent, specifically on the offensive end, that they should continue to light up the scoreboard in the Pac-12. Their new offensive coordinator, Kenny Dillingham, has some talent with the Ducks that is more reminiscent of his days at Memphis. Also expect the higher rushing percentage to continue.

OC Kenny Dillingham Florida St OCAuburn OCMemphis OCMemphis QB Coach
   20212020201920182017
  Rank71778344
  Off YPP5.85.545.587.347.35
  Total Yards45533570528569466917
  Total Pass Att340292397384488
  Total Rush Att446352550562453
  Pass %43.26%45.34%41.92%40.59%51.86%

CFF Players to Consider
RB Byron Cardwell (ADP ~ Rounds 5-7)
RB/WR Seven McGee (ADP ~ Sleeper Potential)
QB Bo Nix (ADP ~ Sleeper Potential)
WR D'onte Thornton (ADP ~ Sleeper Potential)

3.) Nothing Wrong with Investing in the UCLA Offense

   20212020201920182017
UCLA Rank4138988124
  Off YPP6.26.075.315.526.39
  Total Yards52882702486847115952
  Total Pass Att336177426403536
  Total Rush Att518268490451396
  Pass %39.34%39.78%46.51%47.19%57.51%

Chip Kelly has shown some dramatic improvement with the Bruins' offense and he gets yet another year with DTR who is coming off back-to-back 2nd team Pac-12 seasons. This very well could be his breakout senior season as he has some talented weapons around him. Jake Bobo was known in deeper leagues from the waiver wire as Duke's top receiver and is still not being drafted in most leagues, so go out and get him as he projects to be the Bruins' top receiver.

CFF Players to Consider
RB Zach Charbonnet (ADP ~ Late 1st-Early 2nd Round)
QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson (ADP ~ Rounds 9-11)
TE Michael Ezeike (ADP ~ Rounds 16-18)
WR Jake Bobo (ADP ~ Sleeper Potential) *One of my favorite sleepers!

2.) USC Players will be Ready to Roll for CFF

   20212020201920182017
USC Rank6254156615
  Off YPP5.95.86.525.786.55
  Total Yards52932142590245916777
  Total Pass Att499213514401491
  Total Rush Att399156391393543
  Pass %55.57%57.72%56.80%50.50%47.49%

It's not as if USC was a slouch on the offensive end before snagging the best offensive mind in America. Here's Lincoln Riley's results at Oklahoma which speak for themselves:

   20212020201920182017
Oklahoma Rank617111
  Off YPP6.96.717.968.758.29
  Total Yards58634366752775138114
  Total Pass Att404303381364433
  Total Rush Att447348565495546
  Pass %47.47%46.54%40.27%42.37%44.23%

The more important question for CFF players should be whether you want to go all-in on the Trojans' passing game or their run-game? Caleb Williams and Jordan Addison's ADPs will become more expensive as we near the season, but I think Travis Dye and Austin Jones are great values as Riley always had a more balanced attack at Oklahoma.

CFF Players to Consider
QB Caleb Williams (ADP ~ Late 1st-Early 2nd Round)
WR Jordan Addison (ADP ~ Late 1st-Early 2nd Round)
WR Mario Williams (ADP ~ Rounds 4-6)
RB Travis Dye (ADP ~ Rounds 6-8)
RB Austin Jones (ADP ~ Sleeper Potential)
WR Gary Bryant (ADP ~ Sleeper Potential)

1.) Utah is Flying Under the Radar as Best Team in Conference

   20212020201920182017
Utah Rank2467146764
  Off YPP6.45.666.595.755.64
  Total Yards60341529600651445374
  Total Pass Att401116321363427
  Total Rush Att545154591531526
  Pass %42.39%42.96%35.20%40.60%44.81%

USC is going to continue to get all the love this off-season, but the best team in the Pac-12 is Utah as they proved during the 2021 season. Not sure how you argue against it since they return eight starters on the offensive end, including their quarterback, running back and stud tight end. Moreover, you won't need to pay nearly as steep a price for their playmakers and they're going to run up the score on inferior opponents. I can't wait for their season opener at Florida.

CFF Players to Consider
RB Tavion Thomas (ADP ~ Rounds 2-3)
TE Brant Kuithe (ADP ~ Rounds 11-13)
QB Cameron Rising (ADP ~ Rounds 16-18)
WR Devaughn Vele (ADP ~ Sleeper Potential)
RB Jaylon Glover (ADP ~ Sleeper Potential)

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Nick Grays
Grays covers college football for RotoWire by night and is a Financial Analyst by day.
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