College Football Picks: CFB Week 7 Odds, Picks, Predictions and Best Bets

College Football Picks: CFB Week 7 Odds, Picks, Predictions and Best Bets

This article is part of our College Football Picks series.

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Chris' Picks

Another middling week turned in by yours truly, but it again felt close. Boston College blew a 14-point lead, the second straight week where I've lost after teams blew double-digit leads early. Penn State went through the motions in a non-competitve game, I contend they could cover if they wanted to. Bad beats are still beats, so we simply press on and try to get better.

Georgia Tech (-5.5) at North Carolina

I'm going right back to the well against the Tar Heels. Make no mistake, the Heels haven't completely quit and mailed it in; they just aren't that good. Georgia Tech is better than Pittsburgh defensively, particularly against the run, which can help negate star RB Omarion Hampton. They aren't as good as Pittsburgh offensively, but UNC's defense is just bad, especially against the pass, ranking 113th. GT hasn't faired well as a favorite, but UNC can't close. They have zero touchdowns and two field goals in their last five games in the fourth quarter against power opponents. There's no home field with a plethora of empty seats in Kenan.

BYU (-4.5) vs. Arizona

This opened at nearly a pick 'em, and it's (-5.5) at most spots, which always scares me. But Arizona's offense has struggled mightily in conference play, scoring just 17.3 ppg. Sure, being shut down by Kansas State and Utah is one thing, but Texas Tech? They're rather one-dimensional, as they can't run, and BYU has been elite against the pass.   I don't particularly like this BYU team, but they're undefeated, coming off a bye and at home. QB Jake Retzlaff gets more confident with each start, and they'll add LJ Martin back to their backfield. The feeling is this should be closer to a touchdown spread, so there's still some value.

Ohio (-3) at Central Michigan

The MAC is amongst the most unpredictable conferences week in and week out, but let's not forget that CMU lost to FIU 52-16. Ohio is running the ball successfully, including against Power 4 opponents, with the Bobcats averaging 190.2 ypg headed by Northwestern transfer Anthony Tyus. They should find success against a Chips defense that ranks 80th against it against lesser competition. Further, it is elite against the run (100.6 ypg, 3.3 ypc), and their statistically weak pass defense is skewed by their opponents. Remove Syracuse and Kentucky, which CMU isn't, and they're allowing 186.7 ypg and a 2:3 TD:INT ratio.

Vanderbilt (+13.5) at Kentucky

I can't believe I'm going to back the Commodores here, as there isn't a more obvious letdown spot coming off upsetting Alabama. Kentucky, too, is off a major upset, but also a bye to let that sink in, and they clearly won't overlook Vandy. But I just don't trust the Kentucky offense with this many points. They average 22.0 ppg, a number that falls to 12.7 ppg against three SEC opponents. You can get an alt-line of (+14.5) at DraftKings if you want to be over the two-touchdown mark. It's (-133), which is fine with me...I care far more about winning than I do slightly less profit.

Over 64.5 Appalachian State at Louisiana-Lafayette

I do like the Cajuns (-10.5), but I successfully stayed away from them last week in a tempting spot, and given that this opened at (-7.5), I'm going to take a different approach. The Mountaineers have been brutal defensively, allowing 39.0 ppg, 48+ three times, and rank 124th against the run, allowing 217.4 ypg and 5.8 ypc. It's the fourth road game in their last five, and given the destruction on and around their campus, I'm not sure football matters much to them, nor should it. ULL has scored 34+ in four of five and should have no trouble flirting with 40 here, so we're not asking the Mountaineers offense to do much, though they can. Rising spread with no movement in the total works for me. As does a teaser/SGP with moving lines, taking the Cajuns to (-6.5) and this total to 59.5 gets you (+130) odds, so you can move it even more.

Last week: 2-2-1; Season: 14-15-1

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Greg's Picks

I seem to be stuck in the 3-2/2-3 vortex. While it's slightly maddening, it's still better than dropping a 1-4 or 0-5 week. Last week it was again 2-3, and while some of the games weren't close, I had a chance to win in two of three losses, so a bit frustrating.

The week started with an absolute clunker in Missouri. Man, did I give the Tigers too much credit. It's one thing to lose on the road to a conference foe; it's another thing to get blown out. Things did not get any better with Penn State, as the Nittany Lions just played around too long and failed to cover. This game was a bit frustrating as the Penn State offense took far too long to get going. I picked up my first win of the week on Indiana, which continues to roll lesser competition. Win number two came on Ohio State, which completely shut down Iowa, but the cover was always a concern because the Buckeye offense wasn't great. The final pick was a loss on the over in the OSU-WVU game. We were on pace at the half, but the OSU offense just disappeared in the 2nd half.  

 UNLV (-19.5) at Utah State

A tough loss for the Rebels this past week as they just couldn't figure out how to stop the prolific Orange passing attack and ultimately lost in OT. What the Rebels gained, however, was some much-needed balance on offense. This should help them down the stretch, as one-dimensional offenses tend to struggle against good defenses. No need to worry about that this week, though, as Utah State is among the worst in the country against the run. The Aggies allow 6.0 yards per carry on the ground, and while UNLV would love to show some balance moving forward, this week, all the Rebels will need to do is run the ball.  

 Purdue (+22) at Illinois 

I picked Illinois as a dog two weeks at Penn State and they came through, so this pick is not a fade against Illinois, it's more of a play on the situation. Let's start with Purdue, which is awful. There's nothing to like about this team, but the fact that the Boilermakers are coming off an embarrassing loss this past week at Wisconsin can only help, as they're sure to be motivated and focused. Focus could be a problem for Illinois this week because lowly Purdue is coming to town this week and guess who's coming to town next week. Yep, big bad Michigan. Okay, so Michigan isn't great this season, but you can bet Illinois has that game circled on its calendar. Illinois is a gritty team, but I don't see the Illini as a team that gets a lot of style points.

 Texas (-14) at Oklahoma

Technically, Oklahoma is the home team here, but it's a neutral-site game, so let's get that out of the way. Onto the game, Oklahoma enters with a 4-1 record, but it's yet to beat anyone of significance. In addition, the Sooners haven't been blowing out weaker competition either; they don't really do anything all that well. Texas, on the other hand, has looked very impressive, but the Longhorns haven't been great over the past couple of weeks. The Longhorns lull has coincided with the absence of Quinn Ewers, who is expected back this week. That's a problem for Oklahoma as the Sooners rank 82nd in the nation in opposing QB ranking. In other words, they aren't great against the pass.    

 Tennessee (-15.5) vs. Florida

After a rough start to the season, the Florida Gators seem to have turned their season around, but they're running into a tough spot this week as they get a Tennessee team that's coming off an inexplicable loss this past week to Arkansas. It's not that Arkansas is bad; it's just that Tennessee appeared to be national title contender material prior to this past week, and now we might need to reevaluate the situation. The issue for the Gators is their defense, which is average at best, and while the Vols' offense sputtered this past week, I doubt it will have as much trouble this week.    

Ohio State (-3) at Oregon

This should be a great game and there really isn't an edge in the numbers from what I can see, so this pick is really based on the eye test so far. Both teams have been strong, neither has been seriously tested however so there is a chance that one of these teams is simply much better than the other. While the stats don't reveal a clear winner, the Buckeyes seem to be slightly better in most categories, and while that could merely be a result of weaker competition, I think there might be something to that slight edge. Whatever the case, I can't give you a rock solid reason for taking this side other than I believe Ohio State to be the better team and the team more likely to play well in this situation.


Last Week: 2-3-0; Season 14-16-0

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Jeff's Picks

I picked six games to catch up with my colleagues after one of my games was canceled two weeks ago, and I'm very pleased with the result! Hiccups with Louisville and USC still netted me a 4-2 total, putting me above 50 percent for the year. I got very lucky that I locked Clemson in when I did, as the spread shot up to 17.5, and I would have been a loser if I waited. 

Week 7 has no shortage of interesting matchups. I'm on a nice two-week tear - let's keep it going.

Pittsburgh -3 vs. Cal

Travel fatigue is real, and it's one reason I'm taking the Panthers. In the Big 10, teams that have to play across two or more time zones are a staggering 1-8 so far this season, and it's a similar trend in the Big 12. These conferences will need to find a way to lessen the blow cross-country travel has on their matchups, but it doesn't help that Cal will face a red-hot Pitt team that has cruised to a 5-0 record and could find a way into the ACC title game if a few chips fall their way. While Cal put up a respectable fight against Miami last week and almost pulled off the upset, Eli Holstein and the Panthers can generate a lot of offense. This game could come down to a couple of key possessions late, but Pitt's defense has looked better than Miami's in recent weeks. They are stout enough to contain Fernando Mendoza and an inconsistent Cal offense.

Clemson  -10.5 (1H) vs. Wake Forest

Although Clemson will win convincingly, the Tigers have a nagging tendency to let teams back into games in the second half. Swinney likes to use everyone in blowout games, and the decline in on-field talent can wreak havoc if you're laying them as a big favorite. Conversely, they are one of the best first-half teams in the country right now, which is why I dug a little deeper to find this bet. I found it on DraftKings right away, where the spread is -10.5.

Colorado +4 vs. Kansas State

This will be a close game, but when you look at how Kansas State has defended the pass, things look rosy for Shedeur Sanders. They've given up huge passing numbers to Tulane, Arizona and Oklahoma State, and the Buffaloes' passing attack is much more explosive than that trio. Granted, the Wildcats are stellar in the run game, and Colorado has trouble defending there, but Colorado has an improved secondary that will force Kansas State to beat them on the ground. I'm unsure if the points will come into play here, but I am confident that Coach Deion will have them ready to play at home and log a signature win.

Minnesota -5 @ UCLA

From personal experience, I can tell you the Rose Bowl doesn't generate an enthusiastic home crowd for the Bruins since they have to travel 90 minutes in traffic to get to Pasadena. There's no home-field advantage here, and the Bruins need all of the intangible help they can get after a harsh beginning of DeShaun Foster's tenure. DeShaun, I loved you on my fantasy team back in the day, but I can't get behind the Bruins. UCLA has failed to score more than 17 points this season, and although their defense plays well enough early, they've consistently sputtered down the stretch. We saw how Max Brosner and the Gophers could move the ball last week against USC, and I don't think the travel issue will be too harsh for Minnesota. They'll be keen to do a two-week LA sweep and will handle the Bruins with ease. I would even tease up this spread to 6.

Penn State -4.5 @ USC

This game across town has a shot at being closer, but not by much. USC could potentially own the moment, but they face an uphill battle against a Penn State defense that has stymied almost everyone. The biggest problem for the Trojans is the turnover ratio, and the Nittany Lions will win this battle by a mile, as they've only turned the ball over three times. Their offense is efficient but not especially flashy, and the Trojans may be able to make it a game if Miller Moss can stay upright. That'll be a tough ask against a very talented defensive front on the other end of the ball. I'll actually be there to witness this one - it will be a tough night at the Coliseum.

Last Week: 4-2-0

Season: 16-14-0

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ABOUT THE AUTHORS
Chris Bennett
Bennett covers baseball, college football and college basketball for RotoWire. Before turning to fantasy writing, he worked in scouting/player development for the Atlanta Braves and Montreal Expos. He's also a fan of the ACC.
Jeff Edgerton
Jeff has provided sports content for numerous sports outlets and has played fantasy sports since scores had to be tabulated via newspaper. He started working with RotoWire in 2017. Originally from South Carolina, he's a lifelong Clemson fan now enjoying the sun in Los Angeles.
Greg Vara
Vara is the lead golf writer at RotoWire. He was named the FSWA Golf Writer of the Year in 2005 and 2013. He also picks college football games against the spread in his "College Capper" article.
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