College Football Picks: Louisville vs Virginia Best Bets
Kick off the 2025 college football season with a DraftKings Promo Code for $200 instantly on a $5 bet! RotoWire has plenty of college football betting tools and info to keep you in the loop this season. From the latest college football odds to college football futures and Heisman odds, we have you covered.
Undefeated Louisville hosts an emerging Virginia side with momentum Saturday afternoon at 3:30 p.m. EDT. Despite being 4-0 SU, the Cardinals are a weak 1-3 ATS while the over has hit in three of four. Virginia is surging off their home upset against Florida State last week, coming in ranked for the first time 2019. They're 4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS, and the over has hit in all five of their outings.
Louisville vs Virginia Betting Odds for Week 6
Spread: Louisville -6.5 (-106, FanDuel Sportsbook); Virginia +6.5 (-105, BetMGM)
Total: over 61.0 (-113, BetRivers); under 61.5 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Louisville -215 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Virginia +205 (BetRivers)
We haven't seen a ton of overall line movement on any aspect of this game. Yes, there's been some fluctuation throughout the week, and the spread is down a point from opening at (-7.5), which gets us below the key touchdown mark, but overall movement has been insignificant. The total has not gone below 61.5 until Friday morning at BetRivers, and hasn't been higher than 62.5 at any point.
We're talking very fractional numbers, but overall, FanDuel and BetRivers seem to be giving the best odds for this one.
The BetRivers bonus code is one of the top sportsbook promos for college football fans!
Louisville vs Virginia Betting Picks for Week 6
If you're a trend better, the over is the clear play as it's hit a collective eight of nine times. The lack of line movement suggests these numbers are pretty spot on and equal money is already on both sides. Perhaps there's no rush to place a bet on it now knowing the numbers are likely to remain consistent, but keep an eye out for any late-minute sharp movement.
It's a clear and obvious spot for a letdown for the Cavaliers, fresh off their upset over Florida State and traveling for just their second road game. They lost at North Carolina State, which isn't overly impressive, nor is the rest of their body of work prior to last Friday night. The same can be said for Louisville, outside of their second half at Pitt last week. They simply haven't played quality competition nor impressed while doing so.
I personally don't have a great feel for the winning outcome. Virginia's improvement is real offensively, and I could make a case for a road upset, particularly because of my belief in not trusting Louisville QB Miller Moss. But Virginia's run defense isn't great; they allowed 216 yards to the Wolfpack and 256 to the Seminoles. That's going to allow Louisville to hide Moss and find some balance. The Cavaliers will compete, and haven't scored less than 31 points all season. Louisville's season low is 28, and they'll get more here.
Louisville vs Virginia Expert Pick: over 61.0 points (-113) at BetRivers
Louisville vs Virginia Predictions for Week 6
Which quarterback will make the most mistakes? I've hinted at my disdain for Moss, but he's thrown for 300+ yards in consecutive weeks and his three touchdowns last week were more than he had all season prior. Part of last week was the need to throw, both playing from behind and having a banged up backfield. Isaac Brown was questionable going into last week and managed 14 carries, but no production. That will change against a vulnerable Virginia defense.
UVA QB Chandler Morris has some gunslinger tendencies. He threw three interceptions last week on inadvisable passes. He also suffered an injury to his throwing hand, and while he finished the game, it's worth mentioning as it can obviously impact accuracy. I find Louisville's defensive statistical advantage to be a product of schedule, Virginia will score points.
I live in Virginia, where we can't bet on state schools, so I unfortunately can't put my money where my mouth is. This is a huge game for the ACC standings, and I'm buying Virginia's growth as a competitive program. But the Cardinals will sneak out a home win. Big plays from both sides in what should be an enjoyable watch.
LOUISVILLE 37-31.
