College Football Picks: Memphis vs South Florida Best Bets
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A major Group of 5 matchup awaits Saturday afternoon in Memphis, where the Tigers host the Bulls. Memphis is off a shocking loss to UAB, but comes in both 6-1 SU and ATS, with the over hitting just twice on the season. USF has an identical 6-1 SU and ATS record, though their one defeat was a more tolerable beatdown at Miami. The over is 4-3 in the Bulls games to date. This game has a great chance to decide who the leading non Power 4 team will be in the playoff.
Memphis vs South Florida Betting Odds for Week 9
Spread: Memphis +6 (-110, Bet MGM; South Florida -5.5 (-112, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Total: over 58.5 (-108, DraftKings Sportsbook); under 58.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Moneyline: Memphis +184 (FanDuel Sportsbook); South Florida -218 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
We've seen some pretty major line movement as we approach gameday. South Florida opened in the neighborhood of a (-3.5) favorite, and it's steadily climbed all week, peaking at (-6) where it still sits at BetMGM Friday morning, though ticking back down to (-5.5) at most other sites. That's obviously impacted the moneyline, where at one point USF was as low as (-148) and Memphis (+124). Possibly the biggest line adjustments I've seen all season in one game, so money was clearly flowing in on the Bulls early and often.
The total too has seen big movement, opening at 66.5 and steadily moving down all week. The implied final sits at 32.0-26.5, which is a bit curious. USF has scored at least 34 points in all games except against Miami and Florida. And while the competition hasn't been great, they've gone for 48 or more in four straight. Memphis has also topped 30 in five of seven.
Memphis vs South Florida Betting Picks for Week 9
The line movement, and shocking upset last week for Memphis was due to an injury to starting quarterback Brendon Lewis, who left in the first quarter due to a leg injury and is considered day-to-day. AJ Hill filled in reasonably, and was a massive recruiting get for the Tigers, but if he couldn't lead them to a win over lowly UAB, even on the road, I'd have my doubts here. The big takeaway from his debut was he didn't have a rushing attempt. Lewis leads Memphis in carries (86), touchdowns (seven) and is second in yards (440).
Statistically, these teams are darn similar. Memphis ranks 14th in scoring, 15th in rushing offense and 85th in passing. USF ranks seventh, 16th and 45th, respectively. Defensively, the Tigers are 24th, 24th and 79th while the Bulls are 57th, 29th, and 122nd.
This ambiguity obviously makes betting this game a massive challenge. With a healthy Lewis, I like the Tigers on the growing spread, and lean towards it being a back and forth shootout. Without Lewis, I think Memphis struggles to run the ball and Hill won't be able to exploit a vulnerable Bulls secondary who can negate those deficiencies with a decent pass rush.
There will be some clarity before kickoff. And we'll likely see the line move one way or another before that news is fully publicized. With Lewis, get the spread on Memphis before it starts going down and take the over before it rises. Without Lewis, be comfortable with USF at anything under a touchdown, with a slight lean towards the under. A leg injury for a mobile quarterback concerns me, so I'm now hoping Lewis plays but isn't 100 percent, and we get a lower spread on the Bulls by kickoff.
Memphis vs South Florida Expert Pick: South Florida (-5.5) -112 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Memphis vs South Florida Predictions for Week 9
We touched on most of this above; lots of ambiguity leading up to kickoff. With both teams being elite against the run, Memphis very clearly needs Lewis to facilitate this offense. The Bulls have no such concerns.
Byrum Brown is a dog. He's the Bulls leading rusher in addition to his quarterback play. I have some concerns about the Bulls running backs as it's largely a committee, but Brown gives the Bulls a big advantage in the passing game. He has double the amount of passing scores as his potential adversary in Lewis, and obviously a ton more experience than Hill.
That South Florida can hand the ball off to as many as four different backs, and target at least four receivers will make them much more difficult to defend. Memphis is much more funnelled to two backs and two receivers. As such, I'll back the Bulls to get more stops than the Tigers and leave town with a win.
SOUTH FLORIDA 38-28
Memphis vs South Florida Player Props for Saturday, October 25th
No player props available as of Friday afternoon, and may not be if we can't consider the Tigers at all. If they do, it's Byrum Brown across the board for me. The last time he faced Memphis (2023, injured last year), he threw for 357 yards and five touchdowns while rushing 23 times for 100 yards. He has at least 13 attempts in every game except South Carolina State.
I'd also look for Chas Nimrod receiving yards. He's been held to 54 and 45 yards over the last two weeks, but has at least four grabs in four straight and is averaging 20.3 a catch. He's capable of giving us an over at a modest number on just a handful of catches.
