College Football Picks: North Texas vs South Florida Best Bets
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Undefeated North Texas likely faces its biggest challenge to date when it hosts 4-1 South Florida Friday night. The Mean Green are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS. Despite ranking eighth in scoring (44.8 ppg), their games have only gone over three times. The Bulls counter with a 4-1 SU and ATS record, and their last three games have gone over after the first two went under. I don't know how many folks had Friday afternoon classes in college, because I didn't! But UNT has cancelled classes to allow students to attend (pregame) this matchup, so we should see a raucous crowd.
North Texas vs South Florida Betting Odds for Week 7
Spread: North Texas -1.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook), South Florida +1.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: Over 66.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook), Under 67 (Caesars Sportsbook)
Moneyline: North Texas -118 (DraftKings Sportsbook), South Florida +110 (Caesars Sportsbook)
The spread in this matchup has seen the most fluctuation. North Texas opened at (-2.5), but as late as Wednesday mid-morning, they'd moved to (+1.5) before now being back to slight favorites. That hasn't led to as much moneyline movement as you'd expect, and this is the ideal game to shop lines and odds. It's essentially a pick 'em, but I'd happily take less odds on UNT for the off-chance they win by one. Conversely, if you don't want the safety, the odds matter a touch. USF ML at DraftKings currently yields an eight-dollar better return on a $100 bet than at other spots.
The total opened at 65.5, reached a high of 67.5, and has since slowly come back down. Not much to see here. We don't appear to have any major injury concerns, and the expectation is that of a high-scoring, back-and-forth shootout.
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North Texas vs South Florida Betting Picks for Week 7
The ill-conceived notion may be that UNT throws it all over the yard while USF runs it down your throat, but these two offenses are very balanced. The Bulls actually rank slightly higher (48th) in passing at 257.2 ypg with 11 TDs and 4 INTs, and the Mean Green(49th) go for 256.6 ypg with a stellar 11:0 TD:INT ratio. The rushing attacks rank 41st and 46th in USF's favor.
The defenses, however, couldn't be more polar opposites. North Texas is eighth against the pass and 116th against the run, while USF is 103rd against the pass and 58th against the run. I'm chalking this up to the schedule; the Bulls have been better defensively, except when they got bludgeoned by Miami, which the Hurricanes are doing to everyone. And while I won't ding UNT for allowing yards on the ground to Army, I will for allowing them to Western Michigan and South Alabama, both of whom topped 200 yards against them.
While it's the first time the Bulls have left the state of Florida, they are far more battle-tested. I'm not buying into the home-field advantage here being massive, and USF won in the Swamp already. Finding success on the ground, taking the crowd out of it, and keeping the North Texas offense on the sideline is a great recipe for a road win.
North Texas vs South Florida Expert Pick: South Florida Moneyline (-118) at DraftKings Sportsbook
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North Texas vs South Florida Predictions for Week 7
I'm not touching the total here, but my lean is towards the under as the Bulls are probably the best defense the Mean Green have faced. Factor in my game script, thought of a plethora of successful runs for USF, and I'm not confident that both sides reach 30 points.
North Texas QB Drew Mestemaker has been impressive, particularly in not making mistakes. But he adds next to nothing with his legs. I expect USF to pressure him, holding the Mean Green's rushing attack somewhat in check or limiting them, especially with an early lead and forced throwing downs. USF QB Byrum Brown will be just too much for the home side to contend with. He's coming off a five-touchdown game against Charlotte, where he threw for 211 yards and ran for 162! And he's got a reliable go-to receiver in Chas Nimrod when needed.
USF hasn't allowed more than 26 points in any of its four wins, and the defense will be good enough to flirt with that again. I'll keep it conservative, but I believe the Bulls can win this by a significant margin.
USF 34 - North Texas 27
