This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
After consuming countless hours of college football last Saturday, I was left with just one question ... what the hell is going on in the Pac-12?
It wasn't just the fact that every underdog seemed to win (it didn't, but it felt that way), it was the ease with which these teams were winning ... on the road!
It started with UCLA, which not only beat but absolutely dismantled what was once thought to be a strong Arizona Wildcats team. This was supposed to be a good game and one which Arizona had a good chance of winning ... until kickoff anyway.
Not long after, the USC Trojans took the field against an ASU team once though to be strong and made mincemeat of the Sun Devils.
The wildest outcome of the night came from Eugene, though. The Oregon Ducks, a team once thought ... ah, you get the point. I'm still trying to figure out that game. I do understand that this version of the Ducks is not nearly as strong as the one we saw last year, but whether the Ducks are good or really good, they always defend their home turf or at least they always used to.
Utah had Oregon on the ropes a year ago, only to let the Ducks off with a mind-numbing fumble in the first half, and perhaps the events of their matchup last season played into the way the Utes handled themselves this time around, but whatever the reason, it's safe
After consuming countless hours of college football last Saturday, I was left with just one question ... what the hell is going on in the Pac-12?
It wasn't just the fact that every underdog seemed to win (it didn't, but it felt that way), it was the ease with which these teams were winning ... on the road!
It started with UCLA, which not only beat but absolutely dismantled what was once thought to be a strong Arizona Wildcats team. This was supposed to be a good game and one which Arizona had a good chance of winning ... until kickoff anyway.
Not long after, the USC Trojans took the field against an ASU team once though to be strong and made mincemeat of the Sun Devils.
The wildest outcome of the night came from Eugene, though. The Oregon Ducks, a team once thought ... ah, you get the point. I'm still trying to figure out that game. I do understand that this version of the Ducks is not nearly as strong as the one we saw last year, but whether the Ducks are good or really good, they always defend their home turf or at least they always used to.
Utah had Oregon on the ropes a year ago, only to let the Ducks off with a mind-numbing fumble in the first half, and perhaps the events of their matchup last season played into the way the Utes handled themselves this time around, but whatever the reason, it's safe to say that this was never really a game.
The results from the weekend are a clear sign that this season is going to be fun to watch ... and hell on handicappers.
If my many years of handicapping have taught me anything, it's this: beware the week following a strong week. I know, it's no fun to pull back after a hot week, but for whatever the reason, it's really hard to put two great weeks together. I limited the number of games last week because of this, but there are no limits this week. If I see a game I like, I'm going with it.
As always, I'll tweet any insights I come up with post-article each week. You can follow me at @gregvara
CREAM OF THE CROP (Week: 0-3; 6-5)
Saturday
Buffalo at Bowling Green: Bowling Green put up 35 points last week, but the offense wasn't quite as sharp as it had been in previous weeks. Keep in mind that it was facing Purdue as well, which hasn't defended against anyone in the last decade. As the season wears on, the gimmick offenses find it harder to move the ball because opposing coaches figure out ways to slow them. Buffalo's defense is not an immovable object by any means, but the Bulls don't like to get caught up in shootouts and that's what it will take to get over this total. As such, I'll go under and hope that Buffalo can slow this game just enough.
Total: Under 68.5
Minnesota at Northwestern: A tough loss on the under last week in the Minnesota game, but I won't let that deter me from what looks like another opportunity to take the under. The line is set painfully low in this contest, but both of these teams play defense and neither has much of an offense.
Total: Under 40.5
Western Kentucky at Rice: After a rough start on offense against Vanderbilt during its season-opener, WKU has finally got its groove back. The Hilltoppers have averaged 44 points per game the last three weeks, yet they've only been involved in one blowout victory. Rice, on the other hand, has had a bit of trouble moving the ball on offense this season, but the competition has been a bit stiffer. Defensively, Rice is a mess and the Owls will again struggle to stop their opponent this week.
Total: Over 72.5
Ohio State at Indiana: Perfect set-up for the over as OSU has been looking for a way to get back on track offensively and Indiana has little hope of stopping anyone, while the Buckeyes defense is bound to look past the Hoosiers this week. Indiana also has enough firepower to rack up some meaningless points late, as well.
Total: Over 66.5
BEST OF THE REST (Week: 1-2; Season: 2-7)
Thursday
Miami at Cincinnati: The Bearcats were able to hang with Memphis last week, even after losing starting QB Gunner Kiel, but it will be a much different story this week for two reasons. One, Miami has a defense and two, there's tape on the backup QB. There's no surprise aspect this week.
Side: Miami -6.5
Saturday
North Carolina at Georgia Tech: A couple angles in play this week. First, everyone is down on Georgia Tech after dropping two in a row, and the line movement reflects this. The second, however, is more important to this matchup. North Carolina gave up nearly 300 yards on the ground last week to Delaware. I repeat, Delaware. Georgia Tech's running game isn't going to stay down forever. The Jackets get back on track this week.
Side: Georgia Tech -7.5
Purdue at Michigan State: Purdue has lost to Marshall, Virginia Tech and Bowling Green and hasn't looked good in anyone of those games. Michigan State is in cruise control mode, which is always a concern, but, to be honest, it won't take an "A" effort to cover this number. MSU is simply that much better. A decent start to this game and Sparty will roll to an easy cover.
Side: MSU -21
Texas at TCU: Another week and another tough loss for the Longhorns. Texas has dropped its last two games by a combined four points, but both have been at home. Their only road game resulted in a 38-3 loss at Notre Dame. TCU has been less than impressive on defense, but a return home should do the Horned Frogs well. If you were to pick this game based on the last two weeks, then Texas would be the play, but if it were that easy, then there'd be no need for advice.
Side: TCU -14.5
PASSING THOUGHTS ( Week: 0-3; Season: 3-7)
Friday
Connecticut at BYU: BYU looked awful last week, but a visit from the punchless Huskies is just what the doctor ordered. The offense will get back on track this week and the defense may pitch a shutout.
Side: BYU -18.5
Saturday
Arizona State at UCLA: This is an old-school sucker bet, but what the heck, I'll play the sucker if I get to fade the Sun Devils. Maybe it's a sucker play or maybe there is a clear line forming between the have and have-nots in the Pac-12. If the latter is true, then this should be a blowout.
Side: UCLA -13.5
Alabama at Georgia: Kicking Alabama when it's down hasn't worked out too well over the past decade, but I'm picking Georgia here because of what this game means to the Bulldogs and not so much what Alabama brings to the table. Georgia has been on the outside looking in on the SEC party for years now, but this is its chance to join that top echelon, if only for a week.
Side: Georgia -2
Texas Tech at Baylor: This is the highest total in memory and deservedly so, but rarely do things play out like everyone expects. This total is so high that if there is any lull at all, it won't go over. Let's not overlook the pride aspect as well. There are 11 guys on the field playing defense and no matter the team, they all want respect. I'm not calling for a low-scoring affair here, but I don't think it will be the shootout everyone expects.
Total: Under 88.5
