College Football Picks: Picking Winners Week 1

CHRIS' PICKS

Week 1 is always a slippery slope between what we think we knew a year ago, compared and contrasted against what we think may happen.

Duke –13 vs. Army (Friday)

Duke lost at Army last year, its sixth consecutive loss at the time, in a game where it held a service-academy's top single-season rusher in Ahmad Bradshaw to 96 yards on 20 carries, while also holding Army scoreless in the second half. After that seemingly rock bottom, Duke went on to score 43 against Georgia Tech, 31 on Wake Forest and 36 on Northern Illinois, all of which resulted in wins. The Blue Devils bring back QB Daniel Jones, RB Brittain Brown and WR T.J. Rahming, while Army is replacing Bradshaw. The Devils' D is well versed in the option by seeing GT annually, and as such Army will struggle to score. Duke won't, and it wins going away.

Houston –25.5 at Rice

Houston beat Rice 38-3 a year ago, a game in which Houston used two quarterbacks, neither of whom finished the season as the starter. That honor went and goes to D'Eriq King, who while not quite as dynamic as star Greg Ward was a few years ago, brings stability and dual-threat to the position. His development should have the Cougars taking a step forward in 2018, while Rice is in full rebuild mold under first-year head coach Mike Bloomgren. The Owls have the benefit of having played last week, but struggled against lowly Prairie View A&M. With Ed Oliver anchoring the line, Rice won't run with sustained success, and it's proven it can't pass. The Cougars shouldn't struggle to match last year's result.

West Virginia –10 vs. Tennessee (at Charlotte)

The number here just looks too low. West Virginia returns a large chunk of its offense and should have no trouble putting points on the board, even with Tennessee having a solid secondary. West Virginia's defense isn't a top-tier unit, but Tennessee was held to 10 points or less in four games last year and scored just 17 against UMass. They won't be shut out, but the Volunteers simply aren't built to keep up with West Virginia offensively. For Tennessee to keep this inside the number, they'd seemingly have to hold the Mountaineers safely under 30 points, while West Virginia failed to score 28 points just three times in 10 games where Will Grier finished.

Alabama –24.5 vs. Louisville (at Orlando)

This line has fallen a point since opening, so perhaps folks are afraid 'Bama finally can't just replace everything it loses annually. But I'm not buying it, especially in this spot. The Tide should be better offensively simply because Tua Tagovailoa provides a better downfield passing threat. Then there's the Louisville side, which brings a defense that cant help but improve on last year's woes, but doesn't figure to slow the Alabama downhill rushing attack. They're also breaking in Jawon Pass under center, who is not the second coming of Lamar Jackson. He's incredibly raw, and there's little doubting Alabama's going to mix up looks and cause confusion, with Pass also not presenting the rushing threat that Jackson was. Finally, the Cardinals have been running their mouth throughout the week. As a clearly outmatched opponent, that doesn't seem wise. Alabama scores at will, Louisville struggles to score.

Florida State –7.5 vs. Virginia Tech (Monday)

This game comes down to tempo and a lack of depth. Florida State is going to push the issue offensively, and Virginia Tech's defense won't have the bodies to put up resistance the later it gets. The Hokies' D-line was the one unit that had some experience, but is dealing with injuries that will limit snaps. They are replacing five of their back seven defensively, nine of 11 overall, while also needing to replace the school's all-time leading receiver in Cam Phillips. This looks and feels like a game that is competitive through 35 minutes before the visiting side wears down as Willie Taggart pushes the tempo.

Last season: 39-36-2

GREG'S PICKS

We are back for another season and I can only hope this season goes as well as last season. As always, proceed with caution early in the season, especially Week 1 as this is essentially the preseason of college football. Fortunately, unlike the NFL, the NCAA preseason is loaded with quality matchups that actually count! How much they count will be determined as the season wears on as the results from this weekend could have playoff ramifications months from now. Last year, I ended the regular season 41-31 and some of that was due to the reduced number of games I picked. I'll once again attempt to max out at five games per week, give or take a game or two, but five will be the number to expect. As is now tradition, the NCAA has stacked the first week with some very interesting match-ps, so let's get to it.



New Mexico State (+22.5) at Minnesota



This line opened at MN -17.5 and quickly jumped to where it is now. Is that because the Gophers are lying in the weeds as an unexpected Big Ten contender? Not likely. Is it because some Vegas oddsmaker got a peak at a sneaky-good offense? I doubt it. No, this line moved five points because the Aggies looked awful against a Josh Allen-less offense last week. If that game were a part of a normal slate, then maybe it would have gone unnoticed, but last week, with only five games, the whole country saw just how bad the Aggies can be. Fortunately for us, they got that game out of their system and they come to Minnesota with absolutely no expectations. Not to mention, they've had all week to work on their failures of last week. As for the Gophers, they are really young, lead by a freshman QB who was thrust into his position after a transfer decided to leave the program and become a LB at another school.


Wisconsin (-36) vs. Western Kentucky



Remember when WKU had a high-flying offense and was one of the more entertaining teams to watch? Neither is the case anymore. After a solid run for what seemed like a decade, WKU is back in rebuilding mode as nearly everyone from the high-flying days is gone. In years past, I would avoid the side and go straight to the over in a game like this because I could rely on both the WKU defense to be bad and the offense to be sound. While we can't rely on any offensive production, we can bet that the defense will be lousy again. As for the Badgers, they have become quite the popular upset pick to reach the playoff this year. As long as they don't get a big head, they should easily take care of business in this spot. The nice thing about laying points with Wisconsin is, even when the Badgers go into clock killing mode, they are so efficient at running the ball, that a garbage time score is always a possibility. 



Ohio State (-38.5) vs. Oregon State

Oregon State will make a claim as the worst Power-5 conference team this season. The Beavers lost their last three games last season by a combined 110 points, and there's no reason to think it will improve this year. As is often the case early in the season, this result will be determined by how the favored team plays. There are two ways I can see this one playing out. The Buckeyes could be sloppy and undisciplined with their leader nowhere in sight or they could come out with a chip on their shoulder, after all they've dealt with the last month. I should note that it doesn't matter if the reasons for that chip are valid; if they feel slighted, then they just might come out like a band of lunatics. The Buckeyes' mental state will determine whether they cover this number. OSU will win this game with ease, but if they are sloppy, the margin might only be 35. I expect a motivated OSU team and a win by 40-plus points.

Auburn (-2.5) vs. Washington (at Atlanta)



The game of the weekend will feature teams with realistic playoff hopes this season. The Huskies have been getting a lot of love lately, while the Tigers have been somewhat overlooked. The Tigers were overlooked often last season, but we all saw what they were capable of when they put it all together. The question for the Tigers is whether can they bring their "A" game in Week 1. If they do, they win, it's that simple. As for the Huskies, they are very impressive on paper, but they've struggled out of conference, and this matchup might be the toughest they face all season. Throw in a not-really-neutral site and it's going to be a tall task for the Huskies.

LSU (+3.5) vs. Miami (at Arlington, Texas)

It's rarely a bad idea to side with the SEC team in early season conference clashes and when you are getting points, it pretty much takes any indecision out of it. The Hurricanes surprised many last season as they got off to a great start, but they crashed and burned down the stretch. Miami is likely better than it looked down the stretch last season, but the Hurricanes were never as good as their 8-0 start would indicate. Expectations are high this season, but with two new starters on both lines, it could be tough going early on. LSU was just the opposite of Miami last season as it struggled early and played better as the season wore on. LSU also lost a lot of talent, but what's new? This game will be ugly as the defenses should have a huge advantage over two subpar offenses and in that case, getting the FG with a hook is gold. 



Last Season: 41-31