College Football Picks: Picking Winners Week 4

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Updated on September 20, 2018 6:35PM EST

CHRIS' PICKS

That's more like it in Week 3 for yours truly. A 4-1 week felt great, just a lackluster performance from Tennessee keeping me from a perfect showing. Feeling especially great about calling North Texas over Arkansas straight up. That said, last week was just a slate I really liked. There were easily three additional games I could have included but felt stronger about my core five.

Unfortunately, that isn't the case this week. Maybe my East Coast bias has me looking in the wrong place, or maybe last week's weather has me doubting a lot of teams that didn't play. I just don't have a great feel for this week's contests no matter how long I've put off penning this column. So, tread lightly. I'm going with all favorites, so there's limited diversity and I'm hoping for a lot of blowouts.

Georgia –14 at Missouri

Part of this feels like a trap, and Georgia could be due a letdown. But the Bulldogs responded after blasting South Carolina to put an equal hurting on Middle Tennessee State last week, and certainly look the part of an Alabama-esque machine. Missouri has feasted on second-tier squads over the last year-plus, beating the likes of Idaho, Vanderbilt, Arkansas and Connecticut. When facing high-caliber teams, they fell to South Carolina by 18, Auburn by 37 and Georgia by 25. Georgia can dominate in the trenches, allowing for plenty of rushing success while Missouri has little hope at slowing down Georgia through the air

Two games, two potential traps. Rutgers can't be as bad as last week's 55-14 loss to Kansas suggests, can it? I've been bullish on Buffalo (no pun) but kept it to myself for three weeks. Th Bulls own a win over Temple, who beat Maryland and Eastern Michigan, who beat Purdue. Both of those Big Ten teams would beat Rutgers, so naturally, Buffalo wins here, right? The Bulls have a dynamic passing attack, having thrown 12 touchdown passes against one interception while averaging 266.7 yards per game. Further, they rank sixth in turnover margin, with a plus-six overall, while Rutgers is last in FBS at minus-nine. Rutgers' offensive line is woeful, and the Knights are already considering benching their true freshman quarterback. They are a program without a plan presently, while Buffalo has a legitimate chance to run the table and crash a New Years' Six game if it gets through this contest. The Bulls will be plenty fired up to run this score above the line.

Western Michigan –7.5 at Georgia State

The Panthers are a brutal offense, ranking 99th in passing and 100th in rushing offense; predictably leading to the 119th-ranked scoring offense that averages a mere 17.7 points per game with a season-high 24 against Kennesaw State. Western Michigan should not be confused with a defensive juggernaut, but it has more than a pulse offensively, having put up 110 points in two games that weren't against Michigan, throwing for 665 yards and five scores in those outings. That should play well against the Panthers' 115th-ranked pass defense that allows 298.7 yards per game and gave up eight touchdowns in three weeks. Georgia State isn't built to keep up in this one.

Clemson –16.5 at Georgia Tech

I've wavered on this one all week. Clemson's quarterback rotation seemed to have cost it against Texas A&M, and the Georgia Tech option attack limits possessions enough that blowing it out can be difficult. But Clemson has allowed only 17 total points in its last two meetings with the Yellow Jackets. The Tigers have a veteran, disciplined defense that will stick to assignments and continue to shut down this attack. Remarkably, this is the third option offense Clemson has faced this year, and the Tigers allowed 2.21 YPC to Furman and 1.86 YPC to Georgia Southern. Yes, Georgia Tech is a step up, and while it's no option, Clemson held Texas A&M to 2.22 YPC. Georgia Tech is without its preferred B-Back (Kirvonte Benson) due to injury, and quarterback TaQuan Marshall is calling his own number on the ground too frequently while also struggling in limited pass opportunities. It's difficult seeing Georgia Tech score more than 14, and its defense was shredded by a less capable USF squad two weeks ago.

TCU –3 at Texas

I still have some doubts about TCU quarterback Shawn Robinson, but this line reeks of recency bias. Texas is coming off a perceived huge win over Southern Cal, a team with a freshman quarterback that has scored only 20 points in two games against Power 5 schools. Texas lost to a Maryland side that was just blasted by Temple, and struggled to beat Tulsa in Week 2. TCU has beaten Texas in four straight by a whopping 30-point average margin, having never allowed more than 10 points. This version of the Horned Frogs likely isn't as good as any of those prior, but how different is this line if Ohio State doesn't pick off a shovel pass and return it for a score last week?

On the fence: Marshall +4.5 vs. North Carolina State: I liked this a lot more Monday when the line opened at Marshall +7. The movement has me officially staying away, or suggesting maybe just a small play on Marshall to win outright. North Carolina State has Ryan Finley, Kelvin Harmon and not much else. It hasn't found a groove offensively or defensively, and Marshall has an explosive offense I thought could challenge South Carolina last week pre-hurricane.

Last week: 4-1; Season: 8-7

GREG'S PICKS

Michigan State -4.5 at Indiana  

The Hoosiers are off to a nice start at 3-0, but it's tough to gauge if they've improved at all since they didn't play anyone of significance. It's not uncommon for these middle-to-bottom tier Big Ten teams go undefeated in the non-conference portion as many stack soft opponents only to get a dose of reality once they face a decent Big Ten team. Michigan State was projected to be better than a decent Big Ten team prior to the season, but the Spartans stumbled at Arizona State two weeks back. ASU has proven to be better than originally thought, however, and that loss doesn't look terrible now. If the Spartans had won that game, I wouldn't back them here, but since they already have one loss, they can't afford to look past anyone.

 Under 47 Minnesota at Maryland  

After three games, it's clear the Gophers are improved from last season. Their QB looks confident and the defense is legit. Not shut-down-the-best-offense-in-the-country legit, but certainly stout enough to slow down just about any offense in the Big Ten. While I expect the Gophers to win this game, I'm focusing on the total as the Gophers should be a great "under" team all season. Maryland got caught in a bit of a higher scoring game against Texas and it put up a lot of points against a terrible Bowling Green team, but when faced with a decent defense last week, it only managed 14 points. This will be the best defense the Terps have seen to date, and I'm expect a similar output to last week. As for the Gophers' offense, though it seems to have a decent QB now, he's still untested and the Gophers likely will play it close to the vest on the road. 

 Over 66.5 Boston College at Purdue

Boston College is off to a hot start this season and it's all due to the Eagles' high-octane offense. Through three games, the Eagles are averaging 52 points per game. As for the defense, well, it's been good enough to hold onto three victories, but it is in no way fierce. On the other side we have the Boilermakers, who are not interested in playing defense at all. Well, they might be interested, but they are incapable of slowing a good offense. Purdue surrendered 31 points to a struggling Northwestern team and 37 points to Missouri last week. I watched much of that Missouri game and the Tigers moved up and down the field with ease. On the bright side for Purdue, its offense started to find some momentum last week.

Arizona -5.5 at Oregon State  

Oregon State has been a cellar dweller of the Pac-12 for years now and, though it looks like it might be on the verge of turning things around, it's not going to happen overnight. The highlight of the Beavers season was putting up 31 points on Ohio State, but the Buckeyes clearly weren't focused, at least on defense that day. Arizona has taken a lot of heat for its terrible start to the season, but its season-opening loss to BYU doesn't look quite as bad as it did three weeks ago and Houston is pretty darn good as well. The Wildcats got a practice game in last week against Southern Utah and it looks like their offense might be back on track. The Beavers aren't going to get blown out in this spot, they'll put up a fight, but the Wildcats get back on track with a win and cover.

Iowa +3 vs Wisconsin

I'd feel much better about this pick if Wisconsin had won last week, mostly because the line would probably be a couple points higher, but perhaps there is a benefit to the Badgers' loss last week. For starters, there could be a hangover from the loss in that the Badgers' playoff hopes, albeit slim, were probably dashed. Add to that, BYU exposed some issues that Iowa is sure to try to exploit. The main reason for this pick, however, is the Hawkeyes are just a tough beat in this particular spot. Iowa has a way of getting up for big home games and that fact that this one will be under the lights should only help. Iowa looks to have a stout defense once again, and although the competition has been light so far, the Hawkeyes allowing just 42 yards per game on the ground is still impressive. This is going to be an ugly game, but that's just how I want it.

 Last Week: 4-1; Season: 10-5