Texas Tech vs. BYU Odds and Best Bets
The BYU Cougars head to Lubbock, TX to take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders in a battle that will likely decide the Big 12 regular-season champ. The Cougars enter at 8-0 and can take firm control of the Big 12 regular season title with a win on Saturday, while Texas Tech enters at 8-1 and can supplant the Cougars atop the standings with a win.
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Texas Tech vs. BYU Betting Odds for Week 11
Spread: Texas Tech -10 (BetMGM); BYU +10.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: Over 52.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook), Under 52.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Money line: Texas Tech -350 (BetMGM), BYU +310 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
There hasn't been much line movement here. It opened in some spots at -9.5 and some at -10.5 and in most places it's settled in at -10. There appears to be a battle of sides between "An undefeated team getting 10 points is too much" group vs. a group that thinks BYU is overrated at this point in the season. The total hasn't moved much either; nothing to read into that.
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Texas Tech vs. BYU Betting Picks for Week 11
One of the biggest storylines of this season has been Texas Tech's emergence as a leader in the NIL race, which has led to better talent and more wins. It's not always a guarantee that more NIL money and better talent will turn into more wins, but in this case, it certainly has.
That talent has resulted in a very balanced team that ranks in the top-33 in all four major yardage categories. Topping the list is the defense, which ranks first in the nation in yards allowed on the ground. The offense isn't far behind, ranking 13th in passing yards per game and 24th in rushing yards per game. The Red Raiders don't appear to have any weakness.
BYU looks pretty good on paper as well, ranking 15th in the nation in rushing yards per game and 28th in the nation in passing yards allowed per game. The reason why the Cougars are 10-point underdogs is their relatively light schedule and a couple of narrow wins against lesser opponents like Arizona and Colorado
With that said, Texas Tech hasn't exactly run the gauntlet to this point in the season either, but it's the eye test that gives the Red Raiders the edge here, at least in the eyes of the odds makers. When looking at similar opponents, BYU beat Utah by three points at home, while the Red Raiders went to Utah and beat the Utes by 24. Those two games are certainly playing into the line here. It's not just the Utah game either, the Red Raiders have looked the part almost every week, while BYU has played down to its competition a few times.
What will ultimately decide this game is BYU's ability or inability to run this ball. BYU's offense is heavily slanted towards the run and if it can't get things going on the ground, it could be a long day. The problem, of course, is that Texas Tech just doesn't allow teams to run the ball. Even in its only loss this season, the Red Raiders allowed 2.1 yards per carry to ASU. Only the heroics of Sam Leavitt allowed ASU to eke out a victory (I should also mention that TTU was without its starting QB Behren Morton in that game). This game, however, is not in Provo; it's in Lubbock, and Bear Bachmeier is not Sam Leavitt.
BYU played well at Ames this past week, but on the season, the Cougars have struggled on the road, yes they've won every game, but there's no doubt this is a different team at home. Bachmeier looked good on the road this past week at Iowa State, but with all due respect, the Cyclones defense is not in the same league as the Red Raider defense.
With that in mind, the play here is to give the rather large amount of points and trust that the Red Raider defense will do its job this week.
Texas Tech vs. BYU Expert Pick: Texas Tech -10 (BetMGM)
Texas Tech vs. BYU Predictions for Week 11
It's rare to see a team that's undefeated this late in the season as a double-digit underdog, but I think we're going to find out that BYU isn't quite as good as its record would indicate and that Texas Tech might be better than we thought.
I'm expecting BYU to try and establish the run early, with little success, which will eventually force Bachmeier to throw more than he'd like. Texas Tech meanwhile will use balance on offense to go up and down the field. It won't be easy, as the Cougar defense has played well this year, but eventually the balance will open up the entire playbook for the Red Raiders and the points will flow. Only a miraculous effort from Bachmeier will save the Cougars and that's not going to happen.
Texas Tech 38 - BYU 17
Texas Tech vs. BYU Player Props for Saturday, November 8th
Bear Bachmeier Higher 192.5 Pass Yards (PrizePicks)
Bachmeier has only surpassed this number in two of his past five games, but remember, BYU has been playing from ahead most of the season, so he hasn't had to throw that much. In this game, he'll be forced to throw because of game script and the Cougars inability to move the ball on the ground. It's going to lead to a lot of attempts and plenty of yards, some in garbage time. Over 30.5 pass attempts on UD looks like a good play as well.
Behren Morton Higher 260.5 Pass Yards (Underdog)
This one makes me a little nervous as Morton could get scripted out of this number if the Red Raiders have too much success on the ground this week, but I think Texas Tech wants to make a statement here, so expect the Red Raiders to keep their foot on the gas into the 4th quarter, even if they are well ahead and if not, if this is a tight game, then Morton should sail over this number with ease.
