DFS Main Slate Primer: Week 4

People complained about last week's college football schedule. I get that, as there wasn't a single game between ranked teams. Plus, a couple of the games that looked good on paper, like the battle for the Hawkeye State and Arizona State's visit to Michigan State, were snoozes. Fret not, college football fans! There are some huge games this week. I'm not here to play the role of college football talking head, though. We're all here because we are into the college football DFS slate. Here are 12 games from the Saturday slate, including games from both DraftKings and FanDuel's contests. The numbers in parentheses in the stats are FBS rankings. The prices are in parentheses as well.

Southern Miss (+38.5) at Alabama, O/U 59.5, 12:00 PM ET

Southern Miss stats: 66.5 plays per game (96), 485.0 yards per game (25), 40 points allowed per game (113), 457.0 yards allowed per game (93)

Alabama stats: 70.0 plays per game (79), 562.0 yards per game (4), 12.0 points allowed per game (13), 308.3 yards allowed per game (26)

Last week, Southern Miss tore it up, putting up 47 points against Troy in a 47-42 shootout. Quez Watkins returned to action to rack up 209 yards. The thing is, Alabama is not Troy, in many ways. This defense is a lot tougher. With all apologies to the likes of Watkins and Jordan Mitchell, I'm steering clear of any Golden Eagles.

On the flip side, obviously I like the Crimson Tide. Their offense has been great, and this is a defense they can tear up. The only question is how long will the starters be in the game. Knowing Nick Saban, it might be longer than you would anticipate. Tua Tagovailoa ($8,700 DK, $10,400 FD) is the most-expensive quarterback on DraftKings. I'm not worried about that. On the flip side, you can save some cash, and get a lot of upside, by going with wide receiver DeVonta Smith ($6,100 DK, $8,900 FD). Smith has 18 catches for 237 yards and three touchdowns, all ranking second on the Crimson Tide and he's coming off the best game of his career with eight grabs for 136 yards and two scores against South Carolina.

Prediction: The Crimson Tide rolls. Alabama 52, Southern Miss 10

Tennessee (+14) at Florida, O/U 49.0, 12:00 PM ET

Tennessee stats: 76.5 plays per game (33), 411.0 yards per game (55), 33.5 points allowed per game (86), 345.5 yards allowed per game (40)

Florida stats: 56.0 plays per game (127), 372.0 yards per game (77), 20.5 points allowed per game (41), 357.5 yards allowed per game (48)

Both of these teams have had rough years in a way. The Volunteers opened the year losing to Georgia State, and their only win came against Chattanooga. Meanwhile, the Gators are 3-0, but it came at a price. Feleipe Franks is out for the season with an ankle injury, which means Kyle Trask is now the starting quarterback. Their offense has already been going slow. It's not likely to speed up with a backup under center.

I'd personally recommend steering clear of this game for DFS purposes, but if I had to pick a player, I'd go with Tennessee running back Ty Chandler ($6,000 DK, $7,200 FD). He rushed 26 times for 154 yards against BYU's defense, which seems pretty formidable so far, and he has a touchdown in each of his other two games.

Prediction: The Gators' offense struggles without Franks, and Tennessee's is only slightly better. Florida ekes out the win at home. Florida  23, Tennessee 14

LSU (-23) at Vanderbilt, O/U 61.0, 12:00 PM ET

LSU stats: 72.0 plays per game (62), 522.5 yards per game (15), 20.5 points allowed per game (39), 314.0 yards allowed per game (29)

Vanderbilt stats: 71.0 plays per game (68), 358.0 yards per game (84), 36.0 points per game (92), 512.0 yards allowed per game (117)

Behold, the new LSU offense! It's amazing what a little modernization will do for you. On the flip side, the Tigers have keep the same formidable defense. The defense has not been so impressive for the Commodores. They got walloped by Baylor and Purdue. A week off may have let them work on some of their issues, but the questions can't all be answered. They aren't suddenly going to have the talent to stop Joe Burrow and company.

Obviously, I'm not going to recommend any Vanderbilt players, even at home. Instead, here are a couple LSU receivers who are getting to use their prodigious athletic skill in an offense that finally has figured out how to pass the ball. Terrace Marshal Jr.l ($7,200 DK, $9,400 FD) isn't going to be able to keep up his current rates. He's turned six of his 16 receptions into touchdowns. However, he's also not going to fall off a cliff either. A slightly cheaper option that still has upside is Ja'Marr Chase ($5,700 DK, $7,900 FD). He didn't get involved in LSU's game with Northwestern State, a matchup they didn't need him for, but he still has 10 catches for 168 yards and a touchdown.

Prediction: The LSU passing game stays red hot, and Vanderbilt wishes it could have just taken another week off. LSU 41, Vanderbilt 17

Cal (+2.5) at Ole Miss, O/U 44.0, 12:00 PM ET

Cal stats: 67.5 points per game (91), 290.5 yards per game (115), 18 points allowed per game (29), 338.5 yards allowed per game (36)

Ole Miss stats: 66.5 plays per game (94), 328.0 yards per game (99), 16.0 points allowed per game (24), 362.5 yards allowed per game (52)

Cal is ranked, but it isn't doing it on the strength of its offense. Chase Garbers is one of the worst quarterbacks leading a ranked team, and their passing game in general has been lousy. Mississippi's offense hasn't been much better, despite the presence of Rich Rodriguez as the offense coordinator. The defense has better numbers, and that includes a game where it held Memphis to only 15 points.

In this game, I like the two lead running backs. However, Scottie Phillips ($6,800 DK, $8,800 FD) feels too pricey given the matchup. He's been really good, but I don't know if he's so matchup proof I can risk him at that price against the Golden Bears' defense. I have less qualms about Christopher Brown Jr. ($5,800 DK, $8,200 FD) of Cal. Yes, he beat up on UC Davis, but he also rushed for 80 yards against Washington. That difference in price is enough for me to make him appealing on DraftKings, and also I believe in Cal's defense being legit more than Ole Miss at this point.

Prediction: We get a low-scoring game, and being on the road for a noon start discombobulates Cal enough that Ole Miss gets the home win. Ole Miss 21, Cal 20

Michigan State (-9.5) at Northwestern, O/U 39.0 12:00 PM ET

Michigan State stats: 73.7 plays per game (52), 429.7 yards per game (42), 11.3 points allowed per game (9), 216.0 yards allowed per game (4)

Northwestern stats: 69.5 plays per game (82), 325.5 yards per game (101), 15.5 points allowed per game (19), 347.5 yards allowed per game (47)

Ugh. I feel like I'm snoozing already. Some may say that I just don't like defensive games and that I'm all about points, but it's not just that. These aren't just teams with good defenses, they are teams with poor offenses. Sparty was held to seven points by Arizona State, and their numbers are bolstered by a game with Western Michigan. Northwestern is starting a quarterback in Hunter Johnson who couldn't win the job without an injury to TJ Green, and its best offensive player, Isaiah Bowser, missed last week's game with a knee injury.

All that being said, there is one offensive player I like in this game, and that's Michigan State wide receiver Darrell Stewart ($6,300 DK). He has 25 catches for 362 yards through three games, and he hasn't had fewer than six catches in a game this year.

Prediction: Bet the under. The Spartans take advantage of a team that may be without its number-one quarterback and running back. Michigan State 14, Northwestern 9

Michigan (+3.5) at Wisconsin, O/U 43.5 12:00 PM ET

Michigan stats: 80.0 plays per game (15), 396.5 yards per game (65), 21.0 points allowed per game (42), 272.0 yards allowed per game (13)

Wisconsin stats: 77.5 played per game (27), 516.0 yards per game (17), 0.0 points allowed per game (1), 116.0 yards allowed per game (1)

Now this is a Big 10 matchup to get excited for! Both Michigan and Wisconsin had the week off last week to prepare for this huge game. The Badgers started the year on fire. It's not a typo when I say they haven't allowed a single point yet this season. Last we saw Michigan, they were struggling to beat Army. These are both good defenses, and the Wolverines better be afraid about all those turnovers they've racked up so far. The Badgers might be able to take advantage of those slipups more than, say, Middle Tennessee State.

With these two defenses, my recommendation here is to just grab the one elite dude in this game. I speak, of course, of Jonathan Taylor ($8,900 DK, $10,100 FD). He's maybe the best running back in college football. He's put up gaudy numbers since he was a true freshman. He already has five rushing touchdowns this year. Taylor is almost unstoppable. That assuages a lot of fears, even at this price.

Prediction: Michigan looks better than it did against Army, but not good enough to beat Wisconsin on the road. Wisconsin 24, Michigan 17

Auburn (+4) at Texas A&M, O/U 49.0, 3:30 PM ET

Auburn stats: 79.7 plays per game (17), 465.0 yards per game (29), 14.3 points allowed per game (16), 292.0 yards allowed per game (18)

Texas A&M stats: 71.5 plays per game (66), 383.5 yards per game (72), 15.5 points allowed per game (22), 304.0 yards allowed per game (25)

We're in the heat of the schedule now! Two games between teams ranked in the top 15? What have we done to deserve such nice things? Both of these defense have good numbers, and Auburn played Oregon while Texas A&M played Clemson, so they've come about it naturally. I should note these numbers don't include games against FCS teams, so the Aggies crushing Lamar 62-3 isn't included, but it is worth noting to some degree.

Bo Nix showed no fear against the Ducks, but I'm not ready to buy into the true freshman enough to recommend him for your lineup. I don't have the same concerns about Auburn running back JaTarvious Whitlow ($6,800 DK, $9,100 FD). What I really like about him is what a workhorse the sophomore has been. He's gotten at least 17 carries in every game, and he turned those 17 carries into 135 yards and two touchdowns against Kent State. While I'm not going to recommend Kellen Mond, I trust him enough to be able to recommend his top receiver Jhamon Ausbon ($6,700 DK, $8,500 FD). Honestly, it's his worst game, against Clemson, that gives me the most confidence. He still had seven catches for 69 yards in that game, so clearly Mond was looking for him when the pressure was at its peak this season.

Prediction: Bo Nix can't work his magic a second time this year, and Auburn falls just short in a great game. Texas A&M 27, Auburn 24

Washington (-6) at BYU, O/U 50.0, 3:30 PM ET

Washington stats: 68.5 plays per game (86), 400.0 yards per game (63), 20.0 points allowed per game (38), 349.0 yards allowed per game (44)

BYU stats: 65.7 plays per game (100), 356.3 yards per game (85), 27.7 points allowed per game (66), 412.7 yards allowed per game (70)

The Huskies, led by Georgia transfer Jacob Eason under center, have beaten up on Eastern Washington and Hawaii. However, when they played Cal, who has an actually good defense, they scored a mere 19 points. BYU's defensive numbers are also hurt a smidge by the fact two of its three games have gone into overtime, including a double-overtime affair against Tennessee. Then again, should a team need to go into double overtime against the Volunteers?

The one guy I want to point out is Washington running back Salvon Ahmed ($7,300DK, $8,600 FD). He's finally got the lead back role thanks to Myles Gaskin graduating. As a backup last year he averaged 5.8 yards per carry, and this year he's averaged 5.6. Meanwhile, the Cougars have allowed 225.0 yards per game on the ground. If Washington is going to succeed against BYU's defense, it will probably be through the run game and Ahmed.

Prediction: BYU plays another close game, but this time it doesn't end in victory for the Cardiac Cougars. Washington 28, BYU 24

Louisville (+6.5) at Florida State, O/U 61.0, 3:30 PM ET

Louisville stats: 74.0 plays per game (47), 403.5 yards per game (53), 28.0 points allowed per game (68), 355.5 yards allowed per game (46)

Florida State stats: 75.7 plays per game (39), 418.7 yards per game (51), 37.0 points allowed per game (99), 485.0 yards allowed per game (104)

Scott Satterfield's first year at Louisville is going reasonably well. He's got the offense playing at a good pace, and they even scared Notre Dame a bit in their opener. As for Florida State, well, if Scott Satterfield wants a new job next year I know one that might be open. The Seminoles' one win was a 45-44 victory over Louisiana-Monroe in overtime. If you're looking for a silver lining, their offense has actually been good. The defense has been the problem, but that means opportunity for all you DFS players.

Frankly, Javian Hawkins ($4,400 DK, $7,000 FD) is a steal at this price. I don't get it, honestly. The redshirt freshman ran for 122 yards on 19 carries against Notre Dame. The one time he failed to rush for 100 yards he gained "only" 93 yards. This is a name to learn now, because Satterfield is going to turn Hawkins into a star. I also like receiver Tamorrion Terry ($6,000 DK, $8,400 FD) for Florida State. As a freshman he racked up 744 yards and eight touchdowns on only 35 catches. Clearly he has big play potential, as his one touchdown this season was for 75 yards.

Prediction: If there is one game to really target for your DFS lineup, I think it's this one. There are a few guys I think are underpriced, and I expect a lot of points. I also expect Florida State to finally get a win over a Power 5 team. The Seminoles are off to a bad start to the year, but there is too much talent for them to keep losing. Florida State 42, Louisville 38

UCF (-12.5) at Pittsburgh, O/U 58.0, 3:30 PM ET

UCF stats: 71.0 plays per game (67), 559.5 yards per game (5), 20.5 points allowed per game (40), 331.5 yards allowed per game (35)

Pitt stats: 76.3 plays per game (35), 380.0 yards per game (74), 19.0 points allowed per game (32), 303.7 yards allowed per game (24)

I feel kind of bad for Pitt's offense, given that they've had to play both Virginia and Penn State already. That being said, I don't think Kenny Pickett has the skills to pad his stats even against a lesser team. After all, the Panthers only scored 20 points against Ohio. Plus, the Golden Knights have a defense that could easily be on par with the Cavaliers and Nittany Lions.

The Golden Knights have used three quarterbacks this year, but it seems pretty safe to say that Dillon Gabriel ($7,000 DK, $9,000 FD) has earned the right to hold onto the job no matter what happens with the guys behind him on the depth chart. Despite being a freshman who hasn't been starting since the beginning of the season, Gabriel has thrown for 719 yards and nine touchdowns, while also rushing for a score. I also like Greg McCrae ($6,100 DK, $7,900 FD) at running back. Four different backs have gotten at least 20 carries for UCF so far, so it's a bit of a roll of the dice. However, McCrae currently leads the team in touches and yards, and he's averaged 7.4 yards per carry.

Prediction: Gabriel continues to emerge as the latest star freshman quarterback in a season full of them  and UCF racks up the points as they try to finally earn a spot in the college football playoffs. UCF 42, Pitt 20

South Carolina (+9.5) at Missouri, O/U 64.0, 4:00 PM ET

South Carolina stats: 76.5 plays per game (34), 364.5 yards per game (80), 35.5 points allowed per game (91), 527.0 yards allowed per game (120)

Missouri stats: 86.0 plays per game (3), 459.5 yards per game (31), 22.0 points allowed per game (44), 280.0 yards allowed per game (14)

South Carolina's defensive numbers are hindered by the fact it had to play Alabama, and its offensive numbers are hurt by the fact they don't include the 72 points they dropped on Charleston Southern. Still, I'm concerned about their defense against the high-speed offense of Mizzou. I think the Gamecocks could be OK on offense, though, because the Tigers did allow 37 points it Wyoming. Plus, in two games since replacing Jake Bentley as quarterback, Ryan Hilinski has thrown for 606 yards and four touchdowns. I'm not recommending him, but the South Carolina offense seems fine with him running it.

So who will I recommend? Larry Rountree III  ($7,700 DK, $8,500 FD) rushed for 1,216 yards and 11 touchdowns last year, and he already has four touchdowns this season. He's also rushed for over 100 yards in each of his last two games. You know I'm serious about this recommendation, because I'm taking the time to type out the name Albert Okwuegbunam ($5,100 DK, $7,600 FD). The tight end has three touchdowns on the year. Granted, it's only on seven catches, which is a pretty unsustainable rate. And yet, as a freshman in 2017 he had 11 touchdowns on 29 catches. Okwuegbunam is a real red-zone threat, and that could pay off for you big time.

Prediction: Hilinski keeps the South Carolina offense moving, but he's not ready to get a road win in SEC play just yet. Mizzou's offense proves too much, even if their defensive numbers drop a smidge. Missouri 28, South Carolina 20

Oklahoma State (+5) at Texas, O/U 74.0, 7:30 PM ET

Oklahoma State stats: 72.5 plays per game (60), 530.5 yards per game (10), 28.5 points allowed per game (69), 422.0 yards allowed per game (77)

Texas stats: 78.3 plays per game (23), 497.7 yards per game (22), 24.0 points allowed per game (52), 417.3 yards allowed per game (76)

Tom Herman and Mike Gundy are known for their high-flying offenses, and this season has been business as usual. I was a little surprised to see the Cowboys rank only 60th in plays per game, but the yards are there. Although, it comes with the caveat that the two games against FBS teams that Oklahoma State has played are Oregon State and Tulsa. Back in the day, giving up 45 points to LSU would have been grounds for your defensive coordinator resigning, but this year that's acceptable for Texas. Plus, they put up 38 points against the Tigers' defense in that game, which makes their offense numbers that much more impressive.

After watching LSU chop up the Texas secondary, I can't deny the allure of Tylan Wallace ($9,700 FD). Last year, he had 88 catches for 1,491 yards and 12 touchdowns. This season, he already has six scores through three games. He's arguably better than any LSU receiver, so he could have a huge game. Then there's Sam Ehlinger ($10,600). The Cowboys have played some mediocre teams, but they still don't even rank in the top 60 in points or yards allowed. Ehlinger has been a beast this year. In addition to throwing for 11 touchdowns against zero picks, he's a rushing threat thanks to his size and tenacity. He's already rushed for 121 yards and a touchdown.

Prediction: Both teams succeed through the air, and also probably on the ground to be honest, giving us a classic Big 12 shootout, and also a Texas win led by Ehlinger. Texas 48, Cowboys 38