DraftKings College Football Picks: Week 4 DFS Main Slate Breakdown

DraftKings College Football Picks: Week 4 DFS Main Slate Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings College Football series.

CFB DFS: DraftKings Week 4 Main Slate Breakdown

Last weekend's slate ended up being much more entertaining than what was expected on paper, but maybe you had to make some concessions in your head to convince yourself that it was worth watching all of it. No mental gymnastics are required to fall in love with this weekend's slate, though. Ranked on Ranked matchups all over the place and plenty of high-scoring affairs carry the DraftKings Main Slate this week. We even found some plays from Marshall vs. Virginia Tech. 

Slate Overview

There's so much to choose from on this slate, and that should create a good amount of variance between cashing lineups. Colorado-Oregon will understandably draw the most attention. For one, it's Colorado. And two, we have a slate-high 70.5 for a total in that game. TCU-SMU will be popular as well given the reputations on both sides as high-powered offenses with shaky defenses. The metrics suggest that the defenses may have a little more backbone than the perception, but we should still get points aplenty in Fort Worth. 

Oklahoma-Cincinnati is an interesting domino on this slate. OU's offense ranks fifth in SP+ but it has to take the show on the road against a decent Cincinnati defense. If you're interested in some pieces of the Cincy offense, it's important to consider that Brent Venables has the Sooners playing credible defense (22nd) thus far, albeit against unimpressive competition. 

Maryland vs. Michigan State has some interesting pieces at play, too. Michigan State is in the midst of a nightmare season while Maryland is 3-0 and one win away from being ranked in all likelihood. Michigan State still hasn't fixed its secondary -- maybe it never will -- as Sparty is allowing 8.4 YPA thus far. Sure, playing Washington won't help, but still. The Terps offense, if it's ready to go on the road, is in a great spot there whether you're interested in the passing game or the Roman Hemby-led run game. Let's dig into some individual plays from each position and see what we like for this slate, shall we?

CFB DFS Tools

CFB DFS Picks: Quarterback

Bo Nix ($9,600) Oregon vs. Colorado

We're going big game huntin' to start this section. Oregon vs. Colorado. On a weekend loaded with big games, this one might have the most intrigue. And for DFS, it checks all the boxes. High total? Buddy, we are almost eight points clear of the next-highest-scoring game. Oregon's implied total? Highest on the board by almost 10 points (45.75). 

Let's go a step or two further. Oregon has played in two laughers thus far and yet its run/pass split still skews towards the pass at 55%, which is right in line with other PAC-12 compatriots like USC and Arizona. So Nix should push for his season-high in attempts, especially if Colorado hangs in and makes this competitive.

Nix ran for 14 touchdowns last season and has yet to find the end zone on the ground this year. He's not running as much thus far, but why would he expose himself to contact against Portland State or Hawaii when he can dice them up through the air? He did run nine times against Texas Tech for 46 yards, and a similar volume could be in the offing Saturday.

High passing volume, high efficiency and some rushing production sprinkled in make Nix hard to fade on this slate. It's tough to game-stack with one with a Shedeur Sanders runback on the other side without sacrificing too much elsewhere in your build, but it could be done. 

Tyler Shough ($8,100) Texas Tech at West Virginia

I've long been a Shough believer dating back to his Oregon days and he is off to a solid start thus far, at least statistically speaking. He has thrown at least 40 passes in each of his two full games and has 15+ carries in each of those two games as well. His injury history makes you a little queasy about him testing the run defenses to that degree every week, but for now, it's clear that if Shough is in there, he's a threat to take off and run. 

Looking at the matchup, it's not ideal that this one's in Morgantown, but the 'Neers have lost their mystique pretty badly during the Neal Brown era. The defense looks pretty leaky for the 'Neers as its secondary is giving up 7.9 YPA through the air, which is the third-highest on the slate. 

Texas Tech has a solid implied total of 30.25 and Shough should have a hand in a good chunk of those scoring plays thanks to his dual-threat play style thus far this season. 

Chandler Morris ($7,800), TCU and Preston Stone ($7,400) SMU

We're treated to the 102nd installment of the battle for the Iron Skillet on Saturday in Fort Worth with the Horned Frogs checking in as 6.5-point favorites over the Mustangs. While Oregon-Colorado stands alone as the highest-scoring game on the slate, this one is expected to be more competitive and thus both sides are in line to rack up points to get to the 62.5 total. 

For Morris, he's the higher-billed player and has thrown for at least two touchdowns in each game this season while completing 68 percent of his passes at a 7.9 YPA clip. He's been running a bit, too, with at least 30 rushing yards or a rushing score in each outing.  Before diving in with both feet on a TCU stack, it's important to remember that the 'Stangs held Oklahoma to just 28 points in Week 2 and Dillon Gabriel averaged just 6.5 YPA (although he also threw four touchdowns). Morris should be able to return value and the savings are nice compared to going heavy at the Oregon-Colorado game. 

Stone has averaged 41 pass attempts in his two games against FBS competition and converted those looks into 498 yards with a 4:1 TD:INT. He'll likely be asked to drop back 40+ times again Saturday and that's a nice starting point when eyeing quarterbacks in his end of the player pool. TCU's pass defense looked vulnerable against Colorado in the opener but it tightened up against Houston as it held the Cougs to just 6.4 YPA on 35 passes. I'll give TCU some benefit of the doubt for Week 1 and expect the Frogs to play respectable defense against Stone and the Mustangs. Volume will be key for Stone in DFS as I think it'll be tough for him to average much better than 7.5 YPA in this environment, and he doesn't add much as a rusher. 

CFB DFS Picks: Running Back

Rasheen Ali ($6,000) Marshall vs. Virginia Tech

The Hokies have been a sieve against the run so far this season, allowing 212 rushing yards per game at a 5.2 YPC clip. It hasn't been an impressive array of competition, either. Old Dominion ran for over 200 yards on the Hokies in the opener and Rutgers gashed them for 256 yards and four scores on the ground. Heck, even Purdue ran three in on Virginia Tech. 

Ali isn't the bargain he was a few weeks back on this slate, but he's still well worth the $6K in this spot. He has a 58 percent rushing share and is only losing carries to quarterback Cam Fancher, and while Fancher runs a fair bit for his own part, it's still Ali who is getting as much work as he can handle. It doesn't hurt that Marshall is at home and coming off a bye, either, so Ali will be fresh and ready to take on a heavy workload against a vulnerable Hokie run defense.

Jawhar Jordan ($6,500) Louisville vs. Boston College

Taking a running back in a Brian Brohm offense can be risky as Brohm is known for his pass-heavy scheme. At least, that was the case at Purdue. Louisville is actually running the ball 57.1 percent of the time now, and while that likely doesn't signal a complete philosophical reversal from Brohm, it's still notable that this offense looks more balanced now. 

Jordan is coming off back-to-back 100-yard games and has run for a score in each of his three outings. Perhaps the most encouraging part is that he saw 18 carries on 44 snaps against Indiana last week, which was a P5 game where Louisville did not have the luxury of shifting into cruise control as it did in Week 2 against Murray State. Comparable rushing volume could definitely be in play here, and that's a huge factor given Jordan's explosiveness. He's averaging over 10.0 YPC so far this season, and while that will come back down to earth, Jordan was a career 5.8 YPC player in his past two seasons at Louisville. 

Finally, Boston College has been weak against the run. The Eagles allow 186 rushing yards per game on 4.6 YPC and have been pieced up by the likes of Holy Cross. This is also BC's first road game of the season. This is an advantageous spot for Jordan and the Cardinals.

CJ Donaldson ($5,900) West Virginia vs. Texas Tech

This is a solid setup for Donaldson at home against a Texas Tech run defense that isn't bad necessarily, but it's not intimidating either. For his own part, Donaldson has ownership of the WVU backfield with a 36 percent rushing share. Jaylen Anderson has carved out a 21 percent share but hasn't been explosive whatsoever while Donaldson is chugging along at a decent 4.9 YPC clip on 16 carries per game. That he scratched out 81 yards and a score on 18 carries against Penn State is impressive in its own right. 

Quarterback Garrett Greene, a rushing threat, is questionable for Saturday's game. If he's unable to go, West Virginia will turn to Nicco Marchiol, who is not much of a runner (20 carries for 38 yards and a score in five appearances). Not only would that mean that Donaldson is no longer in danger of getting vultured by his QB, but it stands to reason that West Virginia would go with a more run-heavy approach to protect Marchiol in a spot start. 

Things are in place for this to be one of Donaldson's busiest days of the season and at $5,900, he's worth taking the plunge. 

CFB DFS Picks: Wide Receiver

We get an interesting menu at receiver this week with the top-priced option, Zakhari Franklin, settling in at just $7,400. There's a ton to like from $7,300-$5,900; Colorado receivers Jimmy Horn ($7,300) and Xavier Weaver ($7,200) should get target bumps with Travis Hunter being sidelined. Troy Franklin ($6,900) on the other side of that game is leading the Ducks in target share (21%) by a solid margin and has picked up where he left off last season in terms of efficiency with an 11.7 YPT mark and a 68 percent catch rate. Elsewhere in that range, Johnny Wilson and Keon Coleman are interesting buy-low options after last week's duds at BC (Coleman mostly, but I digress). Some one-off targets I like are Maryland's Jeshaun Jones ($6,500 vs. Michigan State), Louisville's Jamari Thrash ($6,600 vs. BC), and A&M's Evan Stewart ($6,700 vs. Auburn). Let's dig into some other wideouts that require further explanation.

Andrel Anthony ($5,300) Oklahoma at Cincinnati

The former Michigan Wolverine is finding his footing in Norman and has put up 11 catches for 188 yards and a touchdown on 14 targets over his last two outings. Oklahoma has a soft landing for the start of its conference schedule with a trip to Nippert Stadium to play Cincinnati on tap. 

To be fair, Cincinnati has been solid against the pass thus far and holding Pittsburgh to 10-for-32 through the air in Week 2 is worthy of praise. Still, Oklahoma's offense is an entirely different beast. The Sooners rank 5th in offense according to SP+ and while it may not help us directly for fantasy, they also have the second-best team passer rating in the nation that would likely be the best if not for Air Force really making it count the few times it drops back to pass.

Fellow wideout Jalil Farooq ($6,800) is coming off a strong game and is likely Oklahoma's top target moving forward, but I'll take the savings with Anthony, whose target share shouldn't be drastically worse than Farooq's at a $1,500 discount.

Jaheim Bell ($4,600) Florida State at Clemson

If you're looking for cheap exposure to the Florida State offense, Bell is the way to go. The South Carolina transfer has scored a touchdown against each of FSU's Power Five opponents (LSU, BC) and can contribute on the ground as well when FSU looks to leverage his athleticism. 

Bell has seen at least four targets in each of FSU's P5 games and is clicking at an 11.4 YPT clip. FSU is going to need Bell as an X-Factor on Saturday against a tough Clemson defense and he should be able to deliver at just $4,600.

JP Richardson ($5,900) and Jaylon Robinson ($4,000), TCU vs. SMU

This pair of transfers is leading the way in the TCU passing game thus far with Richardson (16%) and Robinson (14%) checking in with healthy target shares. Again, we expect this game to be high-scoring and competitive and rostering both of them in a stack with Chandler Morris could give you access to upwards of a third of TCU's target share. Warren Thompson is also an intriguing pivot in tournaments at $3,900 -- he drew eight targets in Week 2 and scored a 33-yard touchdown last week.

GPP Plays

After a proper dumpster dive into the min-priced and other bargain options, I found a few potential candidates that could help you max out the rest of your lineup.

Dae'Quan Wright ($3,000), Virginia Tech at Marshall

Though Wright has yet to find the end zone, he ranks second on the team in targets (16) and is tied for first in receptions (9). Not bad for a tight end through three games. Tack on the fact that Wright is playing in an offense that's banged up at receiver (Ali Jennings is doubtful, Jaylin Lane is questionable) and we have a viable play at the minimum price. 

Kyron Drones ($5,800) Virginia Tech at Marshall

We'll need to keep an eye on this one as kickoff approaches as Grant Wells could be returning and if he does, he gets a revenge game while Drones likely heads back to the bench. However, if Wells is sidelined, Drones is in a great spot to produce at $5,800.

Virginia Tech turned Drones loose for 32 pass attempts in Week 3, which shows a trust from the coaching staff that they will run the normal offense with him at the helm. Drones was also extremely active as a runner against Rutgers with 22 rush attempts for 74 yards. 

Again, we'll be news-hunting all Saturday morning to get a clear answer on Virginia Tech's quarterback situation, but if Drones is in, he's a great way to find some salary relief at quarterback which is tough to come by on this slate. 

On the other side of this game, Cam Fancher ($5,500) had 15 rush attempts in his last game and gets a soft matchup against Virginia Tech's defense. I wouldn't go heavy on Fancher by any means but there's plausible rushing upside. He did run for 444 yards last season.

Thomas Castellanos ($5,900) Boston College at Louisville

Well, I was dead wrong about Emmett Morehead in the Week 1 writeup, or at least Ryan O'Keefe. Boston College has swung back to being more run-first (55%) and the tempo isn't blistering (69.7 PPG). Castellanos has provided a spark since taking over, though, and he's made strides each week. He was shaky against NIU in the opener but was surgical against Holy Cross before putting a big scare into Florida State last weekend. 

Castellanos projects for ~30ish passing attempts in this spot along with 12-15 rushes. We can't really expect a 300-yard bonus to be in play for him, but his contributions both through the air and on the ground should be plenty for him to return value on a sub-$6K salary.

Ajay Allen, Miami ($4,800) at Temple

We may have to wait until Miami pulls away for Allen to start factoring in, but with the 'Canes checking in as 23.5-point favorites, it's only a matter of when -- not if -- the reserves get some run. Allen got 12 carries in the rout over Bethune-Cookman, and while Temple is several notches above B-C, Miami should have light work on Saturday. This is a bet that Allen takes the bulk of the work in garbage time, and that there will be plenty of garbage time opportunities on which to capitalize. 

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. John McKechnie plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: Fanduel: mckech3; DraftKings: mckech3.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
John McKechnie
John is the 2016 and 2021 FSWA College Writer of the Year winner. He is a Maryland native and graduate of the University of Georgia. He's been writing for RotoWire since 2014.
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