This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
Florida at Georgia Odds, Betting Picks and Predictions for Week 9
The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party is here again and while some hope (Kirby Smart) this game will go back to a traditional home and away series, it is currently still being held in Jacksonville so it is not a true away game for Florida. Both Florida and Georgia come into this game rested off of a bye week. The week prior Florida lost their third of four SEC matchups on the year, a 45-35 final against LSU. Meanwhile, Georgia beat up on a poor Vanderbilt team 55-0. These two teams seem to be heading in opposite directions as Georgia sits at number one in the nation with National Championship hopes while Florida is trying to stop their downward spiral in SEC play.
Florida at Georgia Odds for Week 9
Spread: Georgia -22.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: 56.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Georgia -2100; Florida +1000 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
This is another line that has been pretty stable since it was released following the end of action last Saturday. Currently Florida is garnering 63 percent of bets on the spread (via Action Network). Typically when we see this it is because big money (sharp money) is in favor of the opposite side, outweighing the public favoritism. Likely, handicappers and big bettors are on the side of Georgia while the resounding public likes Florida.
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Florida at Georgia Betting Picks Week 9
Let's look at some of the numbers here. The biggest factor will likely be how the Florida offense stacks up against Georgia's defense but, let's first look at the other side of the ball. The Georgia offense currently sits at second in the nation in yards per game with 526.6 and eighth in points per game with 40.1. While Georgia ranks tops in the nation in offense, the Florida defense sits on the other end of the spectrum at 108th in yards allowed per game, giving up 429.3 yards on average. When we dive deeper into the metrics they seem to line up very closely with what the raw data is telling us. Georgia sits fifth in the country in offensive EPA on a per-game basis while the Florida defense ranks 107th in the nation in defensive EPA on a per-game basis (via CFB Graphs). The Georgia offense will likely have no trouble moving the ball against a porous Florida defense; now let's flip back to the other side of the ball. On offense, Florida boasts the fourth-best running game but the 94th-best passing game in terms of EPA. This is pretty evident when we look at the play of quarterback Anthony Richardson throughout the course of the year. Richardson had a great game against Tennessee's 130th-ranked passing defense (453 yards, 2TDs, 1INT) and a solid game against Eastern Washington (240 yards, 2TDs, 1INT) but has been pretty underwhelming outside of that. Richardson has passed for 1,367 yards while completing 56.5 percent of his passes with six touchdowns and seven interceptions, including 14-of-35 for 143 yards zero touchdowns and two interceptions against Kentucky and 10-of-18 for 112 yards zero touchdowns and two interceptions against USF. In those games, Richardson was also ineffective on the ground totaling 13 carries for 28 yards between the two games. The Georgia defense ranks seventh in the country in defensive EPA per game, fourth against the run and 24th against the pass. In comparison, the Kentucky defense that bottled up Richardson ranks 34th against the run and 20th against the pass.
Florida at Georgia Best Bet: Georgia -22.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Florida at Georgia Prediction
After diving into the numbers and looking at how some previous opponents have had success against what can be a potent Florida offense, there is definitely a blueprint for success here for the Bulldogs past just being flat-out better all around. The Georgia defense will likely try to contain Anthony Richardson to the pocket and force him to make plays in the passing game. Richardson has struggled when forced to do so and this will likely result in turnovers which are killer against a team of Georgia's caliber. I expect Georgia to roll in this one with a final score of 38-7.
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