This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
Iowa State vs. Baylor Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions for Week 4
It's time for a little Big 12 conference play! The Cyclones and Bears have kind of swapped places. Matt Campbell and Iowa State were the shiny team people thought could make a run for the Big 12 title, and then last year it slipped up a bit. Then, Dave Aranda got Baylor up and running and turned his squad down in Waco into a buzzy team. Thus, Baylor started the season ranked, while Iowa State did not. So far, the Cyclones are undefeated, but the Bears, who are ranked 17th, have a loss on the road to BYU, a team that just got housed by Oregon, who was housed by Georgia, who, well, Georgia kind of looks unbeatable. A win for Iowa State would be an "arrival" moment in 2022. Baylor winning would "right the ship." Which will happen?
Iowa State vs. Baylor Odds for Week 3
Spread: Iowa State -2.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: 45.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Iowa State -146, Baylor +122 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
A team at home being so slight of a favorite is effectively a tossup. Clearly, FanDuel's book is not being driven by the AP poll, since the ranked team is the underdog. If this game was in Waco, the Bears would obviously be favored. Also, that's a pretty low over/under there, but kind of understandable with these teams.
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Iowa State vs. Baylor Betting Picks This Week
The Cyclones came into this year reconfigured. Brock Purdy, the cult hero quarterback, was moving on, and Breece Hall entered the NFL Draft as the best running back available. Iowa State has handily bested the two cupcakes it faced, and then it finally beat Iowa. Of course, that Cyclones-Hawkeyes game was an affront to the sport, but a win is a win. Baylor has also obliterated its cupcake opponents, but it has that loss. A road loss at that. The SP+ ranking was skeptical about the Bears heading into this season, and indeed based on those rankings this is the 25th-ranked team (Baylor) versus the 37th (Iowa State). It's two offense ranked in the fifties versus two defenses ranked in the top 30 defensively. Both of these teams have quarterbacks who are starters for the first time (though Blake Shapen saw time under center in 2021). More than either of these teams, I am betting on defense.
Iowa State vs. Baylor Best Bet: Under 45.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Iowa State vs. Baylor Prediction
The defenses are ahead of the offenses on these teams. In his one start against real competition, Dekkers tossed for 184 yards, one touchdown, and two picks. Baylor's top running back, wide receiver, and tight end on the depth chart are all up in the air status-wise with head injuries. I don't see this being another game with only 17 total points scored. However, I would be surprised if either team can even hit 28. Like FanDuel's Sportsbook, I see this as a tossup, and I would likely lean Baylor's way as a slightly-better team with a couple of points to work with. Ultimately, though, this feels like a low-scoring slugfest that could go either way, maybe by dint of the rarely-reliable world of college kickers.
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