College Football Picks: North Carolina vs. TCU Best Bets
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The Bill Belichick North Carolina era begins in prime time as the sole game Monday evening to wrap up Week 1, when the Heels will host TCU. Horned Frogs' coach Sonny Dykes is in a unique position, having also led his team in Deion Sanders' Colorado debut two seasons ago, where all eyes were on the matchup, which they lost 45-42. That kind of offense seems unlikely here.
North Carolina vs TCU Betting Odds for Week 1
Spread: TCU -3.5 (-110, Caesars Sportsbook); North Carolina (+3.5, -108 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Total: Under 54.5 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook); Over 53.5 (-115, ESPN Bet)
Moneyline: TCU -176 (FanDuel Sportsbook); North Carolina +150 (BetMGM)
We've seen a significant amount of line movement since lines were posted about 10 days ago on all fronts, and unconfirmed rumors from BetMGM indicate that 80+ percent of bets are being placed on TCU, clearly prompting adjustments.
TCU has gone from -2.5 to -3.5, which obviously impacts the moneyline, which has gone from (-155) to as high as (-180). The total has seen a steady downward movement, dropping a full five points since its initial value of 59.5. Early-season reminder: movement is designed to ensure equal money on both sides of the number, so the house can't lose, and is not necessarily indicative of the actual outcome or game expectations.
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North Carolina vs TCU Betting Picks for Week 1
What do we know: TCU has a returning 3,900-yard quarterback in Josh Hoover. That's essentially it. They're replacing their top three wide receivers. That's essentially it. TCU aims to perform better than it did last season and hopes a defense that allowed 24.6 points per game will improve.
We know nothing about North Carolina. They've named USA transfer QB Gio Lopez their starting quarterback, but haven't released a depth chart anywhere else. They reportedly have 41 transfers and 31 recruits on their squad. It's anyone's guess how they'll gel.
It's also anyone's guess how Belichick will connect/motivate his younger group versus a bunch of professionals. What's not guesswork, however, is the game plan and scheme from their new head man. Giving Belichick months to study one opponent, in a home environment, sounds like a huge advantage.
North Carolina vs TCU Expert Pick: North Carolina (+3.5) -108 at DraftKings
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North Carolina vs TCU Predictions for Week 1
Lopez is much better as a runner than a passer, which should work in the Heels' favor, allowing Belichick to scheme timely RPOs and darts down the seam. Lopez has reportedly had elite chemistry with former top recruit and holdover Jordan Shipp, who's looking for a breakout campaign.
UNC allowed a touch over 28 points last season, and while Belichick is a defensive mastermind, there are a ton of questions about this team up front. I expect Hoover to have some clean pockets and find success. As a result, there's a slight lean to the decline, despite what we've seen across the entire opening weekend, where offenses have struggled. No shootout, but offenses should fare well. UNC will lead late and need to stop a last-minute TCU drive, where their coach will make sure it happens.
North Carolina 30-27
