Tennessee at Georgia Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions for Week 10

This article is part of our College Football Picks series.

UGA vs. Tennessee Odds, Betting Picks and Predictions for Week 10

In the first poll released by the College Football Playoff committee this week, Tennessee is ranked at the top followed closely by Georgia at number three. This marks the first time the Vols have been ranked number one in any poll since winning the National title in 1998. This game obviously being two heavyweights in the current college football landscape late in the year has big implications moving forward; it will more than likely determine the winner of the SEC East. In the last five years, Georgia is 5-0 while outscoring the Vols 207-64. This has been the case for many games on the Vols schedule this year as Josh Heupel seems to finally have this team back on the upswing after decades of disappointment.

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Tennessee at Georgia Odds for Week 10

Spread: Georgia -8.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Total: 66.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Moneyline: Georgia -315; Tennessee +245 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

This is another line that has been pretty stable since it was released following the end of action last Saturday, the line did momentarily drop down to Georgia -7.5 on Sunday afternoon but has since climbed back up around -8 to -8.5 on most major books. However, Tennessee is garnering 89 percent of the money on spread action to this point.

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Tennessee at Georgia Betting Picks Week 10

This game will bring us lots of interesting facets, most striking of which may be the seemingly unstoppable Tennessee offense against one of the best defenses in the country. We have already seen Tennessee rack up points against two top defenses not just in the SEC but in the country in Alabama and Kentucky. In previous articles, I have used metrics from both these defenses as indicators for how teams might fare in these matchups. Prior to last week's dismantling Kentucky's metrics aligned similarly to that of Georgia and currently Alabama's defensive metrics line up similarly with Georgia's. In fact, Alabama's passing defense that struggled with the Vols has been better from an EPA perspective ranking 14th in the country in comparison to Georgia at 22 (via CFB-Graphs). Where Georgia does have an advantage is in stopping the run, ranking fifth in EPA versus the run compared to 22nd-ranked Alabama. If Georgia can win the line of scrimmage and stop the run without having to use extra defenders, a fair assumption to make since they haven't had to do so all season, it should allow them to be more multiple in their coverage schemes and give them a better chance to stop the Tennessee passing attack. However, even with the success Georgia has had it is no easy task to stop the Vols with the way Tennessee spreads out and attacks opposing teams. What makes this attack from Tennessee so difficult is in how they will spread their wide receivers so far to the sides of the formation, nearly putting them in the boundary. This leaves defensive fronts on an island to defend against the run and forces defenders to play lock down man-to-man coverage with large areas for safeties to man or if opting for zone coverage schemes (something Georgia does not tend to do) gives defenders unusually large areas of the field to cover. On the other side of the ball, the Vols boast the 10th-ranked running defense in terms of EPA but rank 103rd against the pass. Georgia has a much more balanced attack this year with the progress of Stetson Bennett as they have the 14th-best passing attack and 8th-best rushing attack in terms of EPA. This is another game where Georgia should be able to put up some points, the biggest question comes down to how often will they be able to stop Tennessee.

Tennessee at Georgia Best Bet: Tennessee +8.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Tennessee at Georgia Prediction

After looking at how these teams stack up, I think this is going to be a tight game and Georgia will be able to get enough stops to come out with a win. I think the Vols have enough to keep it a one-score game with a final around 35-31; Georgia wins, the Vols cover and we end up right around the game total of 66.5 (really going out on a limb there I know).

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