This article is part of our EuroLeague Primer series.
- Monaco's Alpha Diallo remains out for Game 4.
- Hassan Martin will not play Friday for Olympiacos.
- Bayern's Paul Zipser is inactive for Game 4.
- Barcelona's Pierre Oriola remains out Friday.
- Rodrigue Beaubois and Krunoslav Simon will not play for Efes on Thursday.
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AX Armani Exchange Milan at Anadolu Efes Istanbul
Status Check: Nicolo Melli (AXM), Malcolm Delaney (AXM), Konstantinos Mitoglou (AXM), Trey Kell (AXM), Rodrigue Beaubois (EFS), Krunoslav Simon (EFS), Dogus Balbay (EFS)
Best Bets for Success: Efes took command of the series Tuesday, dispatching Milan on its home court to go up 2-1. It's looking like each team will line up with the same squad they used earlier in the week, and thus, the home team is favored by roughly eight points just like they were in Game 3. The oddsmakers are expecting a low-scoring contest, as the over/under falls below 150 points. That's certainly a low number, but four of the five matchups between this season have finished with a total of 146 points or fewer. Shane Larkin and Vasilije Micic have carried the load for the defending champions, and they figure to do so again, particularly with the Turkish team likely remaining shorthanded in the backcourt. Over the five game against the Italian team this season, Larkin is averaging 14.8 ppg, Micic is pouring in 19.6 points per contest and both are spending right around 33 minutes per game on the court. Shavon Shields stuffed the stat sheet in each of the last two games, and if Milan will need him to do so again to extend the series. As has been mentioned in previous editions of this article, Efes allows opposing forwards to rack up more stats than any other team. Shields has capitalized in a big way, averaging 12.4 points, 5.2 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.6 steals and 1.2 three-pointers against the Turkish team over the course of the season.
DFS Darlings: The complementary players on the Efes side have been a bit quiet with Larkin and Micic dominating the box score, but Tibor Pleiss stepped up in a big way Tuesday. He won't surprise anyone after his Game 3 showing, but it seems likely he will retain a spot in the starting lineup and he should again see extra scoring opportunities if Beaubois and Simon sit as expected. In that scenario, Elijah Bryant would assume a bigger role like he did in the last two games, and James Anderson would likely pick up some minutes as well. It's unclear what shape Sergio Rodriguez will be in Thursday, but with his team's season on the line, expect him to give it all he's got Thursday. Devon Hall was asked to do more than usual in Game 3, and he responded with his most productive game of the season. With Milan still down a number of key players, he's going to play a key role again. Ben Bentil has taken advantage of the Turkish team's issues with forwards, and he will be in position to do so again. Milan has been forced to go down its bench a bit, and Jerian Grant, Kaleb Tarczewski and Gianpaolo Ricci all figure to continue seeing more minutes than they are accustomed to.
FC Barcelona at FC Bayern Munich
Status Check: Cory Higgins (BAR), Pierre Oriola (BAR), Darrun Hilliard (BAY), Corey Walden (BAY), Paul Zipser (BAY)
Best Bets for Success: With a commanding win Wednesday, the Spanish squad snatched back home-court advantage and also put themselves on the brink of a spot in the Final Four. After a string of pedestrian performances, Barcelona's Nikola Mirotic reminded everyone why he is the favorite to win the MVP award, missing just three shots while putting 25 points -- and 37.5 DraftKings points -- on the board. That effort bumped his price on that website back up to an even $10,000, but it also provides confidence that he can do it again Friday. Nick Calathes got in on the action as well, making at least seven tallies in three categories. Both players hit the 30-minute mark for the first time in a long time their last time out, and with Barcelona looking to avoid a fifth game, they could certainly do so again. The home team does not have the obvious options their opponent does, but both Vladimir Lucic and Augustine Rubit have occupied this spot at certain times this series, and they will both land here in a must-win game. Lucic figures to get as many minutes as he can handle in Game 4, and Rubit is now averaging 23.4 DraftKings points in five matchups with Barcelona this season.
DFS Darlings: Bayern has been shorthanded in the backcourt nearly all series, and Nick Weiler-Babb and Ognjen Jaramaz have emerged as their team's top two guards. The former is a bit safer, but the latter is quite a bit more affordable on DraftKings. With fellow center Leon Radosevic slowed by an ankle injury, Othello Hunter could again see more minutes than usual, and he won't run you much at $7,200. No one among Barcelona's supporting cast has been a consistent producer this series, but Brandon Davies has a history of success in the postseason, and this seems like a spot for him to bounce back. Dante Exum remains intriguing at an affordable $7,600, and Kyle Kuric earns a mention after averaging 26 minutes over the last two contests.
Olympiacos Piraeus at AS Monaco
Status Check: Hassan Martin (OLY), Alpha Diallo (ASM)
Best Bets for Success: Neither of the last two games in this series was particularly competitive, but with Olympiacos on the road and Monaco trying to keep its season alive, the oddsmakers have installed the home team as a small favorite. If the hosts want to extend the series to a fifth game, they are likely going to need a big night from Mike James. In the two games Monaco has won against Olympiacos this season James averaged 24.0 points, and in their three defeats he put an average of just 10.0 points on the board. James is now up to $11,000 on DraftKings, but he still averaged 3x value at that rate over the last two contests. It's not yet known if Diallo will play Friday, but it seems likely he will be limited at best, so we are going to include Dwayne Bacon here for Game 4. Bacon is up to a season-high $9,500, but he earned his way there by putting up at least 29.0 DraftKings points in three of his last four appearances. A couple Olympiacos players will find themselves in this section as well, and those would be Sasha Vezenkov and Kostas Sloukas. Vezenkov has been about as consistent as they come, reaching double figures in 15 straight games and finishing with fewer than 25.5 DraftKings points just two times over that span. Sloukas, meanwhile, recorded fewer than 21.5 DraftKings points just once over his last 11 appearances, and he had one of his best scoring nights of the season in Game 3.
DFS Darlings: The over/under on this game is more than a handful of points above the total on the first game, which gives the players in this area a bit of an edge in fantasy contests. The Greek team has run a pretty short rotation all series, which bodes well for a couple other Olympiacos guards, Thomas Walkup and Tyler Dorsey. Walkup is now up to $7,700 on DraftKings, but that's still a pretty good price for someone averaging 24.1 points on that website since the series began. Dorsey hasn't matched that production, but if he even comes close to putting a 20 in the scoring column he should return useful value. Shaq McKissic somehow fell out of the rotation in Game 3, but he was on a good run prior to that and could be worth a gamble at $6,800. Consistency has not been the name of the game for anyone on the Monaco side other than the two players listed as "best bets," but both Will Thomas and Paris Lee at least averaged 25 minutes over Games 1-3, and neither checks in above $7,600. Donatas Motiejunas has been a bit quiet lately, but he is returning some of the most average value on the board. Danilo Andjusic has the potential to be a bargain, as he shined in Game 2 and is listed at just $5,600.