EuroLeague Primer: Round 19 - Thursday

EuroLeague Primer: Round 19 - Thursday

This article is part of our EuroLeague Primer series.

PREGAME UPDATES

STATS AND INFO.

THE SLATE

FC Bayern Munich at Fenerbahce Beko Istanbul

Status Check: Vladimir Lucic (BAY), Andreas Obst (BAY), Zan Mark Sisko (BAY), Nemanja Bjelica (FBB), Tonye Jekiri (FBB), Ismet Akpinar (FBB), Tarik Biberovic (FBB)

The Breakdown: The second Round of the week gets underway in Turkey, where a Bayern team that has won straight will take on a reeling Fenerbahce club that snapped a five-game losing streak Tuesday. The Turkish team claimed victory when these teams met all the way back in Round 1, and the oddsmakers are expecting a similar result, as the home team is favored by as many as 7.5 points. Only 136 points were scored in the opener, and both teams rank top-6 in defensive rating, which leads to this game -- along with the next one -- having the lowest over/under on the board. Fenerbahce struggled on the offensive end during their losing streak, but they rate markedly better than their opponents on their end, and the German club has won just two of its six games away from home this season.

Best Bets for Success: No fewer than six Fenerbahce players hit the 20-point mark on DraftKings on Tuesday -- which followed a game in which no one on their roster reached that mark. As such, you could go all kinds of ways in this spot. The stats suggest Fenerbahce's top producer will be a center, so we will go with Johnathan Motley, who put up at least 22.0 DraftKings points in four of his last five appearances. Things are equally as unsettled on the Bayern side, but it's tough to go against Augustine Rubit and Othello Hunter, who each led their team in DraftKings points twice over the past four Rounds. Hunter has the better matchup of the two, and he also checks in roughly $1,000 cheaper on DraftKings.

Fantasy Factors: Scottie Wilbekin remains just $8,200 on DraftKings, and thus he remains one of the better value plays on the board. Wilbekin has appeared in 14 games this season, and he has put up at least 20.0 DraftKings points in eight of them. It will be tough to find more bargains on the Turkish team, as Bayern ranks top-2 against forwards in both points and field goal attempts. Cassius Winston stands out for Bayern, as he is his team's leading scorer and checks in at an affordable $7,800 on DraftKings. 

AS Monaco at Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade

Status Check: Jordan Loyd (ASM), Adrien Moerman (ASM), Luca Vildoza (CZV), Facundo Campazzo (CZV), Ben Bentil (CZV), Hassan Martin (CZV), Nikola Ivanovic (CZV)

The Breakdown: The visitors sit second in the league in points per game and the home team ranks near the bottom in that department, so the fact that the over/under sits around 155.0 points suggests the game will be played at Red Star's pace. Despite that, the oddsmakers have given a slight edge to Monaco, who picked up the win when these teams met in Round 6 and are favored by up to 2.5 points Thursday. Both teams will have plenty to play for, as a win for The Roca Team would keep them no worse than tied for first place, and a victory for the Serbian squad would push them into a playoff spot for at least a day.

Best Bets for Success: It hasn't been the smoothest sailing for Mike James of late, but it's going to take more than a couple subpar efforts to knock him from this space -- particularly with him putting up 31.5 DraftKings points last time he saw Red Star. Given their recent performances, Elie Okobo and Alpha Diallo could both land here as well -- but only if Loyd remains sidelined. The prospects for a number of Red Star players will hinge on Vildoza's availability, but should he remain sidelined, Nemanja Nedovic will be among the top targets on the slate. Nedovic put up at least 29.0 DraftKings points in the three games in which Vildoza was limited or unavailable, and he will face a Monaco team allowing guards to make more three-pointers than any other club. It's impossible to leave out Filip Petrusev, who averaged 35.1 DraftKings points over the last five Rounds despite facing several tough matchups.

Fantasy Factors: Both these teams have been pretty top-heavy of late, but there are still a few value plays to consider. If both Vildoza and Bentil wind up sidelined, you can consider Ognjen Dobric and Luka Mitrovic, with neither checking in above $7,600 on DraftKings. Red Star has been below average against centers, so you could go with either Donta Hall or Donatas Motiejunas, and it could be worth gambling on Yoan Makoundou, who broke out in Round 18 and remains a meager $3,700 on DraftKings.

Real Madrid at ALBA Berlin

Status Check: Gabriel Deck (RMB), Rudy Fernandez (RMB, Anthony Randolph (RMB), Carlos Alocen (RMB), Marcus Eriksson (BER), Louis Olinde (BER), Gabriele Procida (BER)

The Breakdown: The next game on the docket features two teams who have done plenty of winning of late, with the Spanish squad going 3-1 over the last four Rounds and the German club entering the winners of three straight. Real Madrid's run has pushed them to the top of the standings while ALBA's has kept them out of the basement, so it should come as little surprise that the visitors are favored by as many as 8.0 points. The final score was not even that close when these teams met in Round 8, as Real Madrid won by 18 points on its home court. ALBA plays faster than any other team and Real Madrid is not far behind, so more points are expected in this contest than any of the other three. The hosts will have their work cut out for them if they hope to extend their streak to four, as Real Madrid ranks third in the league in offensive rating and rate better on the opposite end than any other club.

Best Bets for Success: Only one team is allowing frontcourt players to get up more shots than ALBA, and no team allows centers to rack up more blocks, so it looks like it will be another big night for Walter Tavares. With the way Real Madrid's roster currently looks, Dzanan Musa will be positioned for success as well. Neither player tossed up big numbers against ALBA in Round 8, but they also topped the 20-point mark on DraftKings like they usually do. No team is containing opposing forwards better than Real Madrid, so we will look to ALBA's backcourt in Round 19. Maodo Lo recorded at least 22.8 DraftKings points four times over the last five Rounds, and Jaleen Smith has put up at least 25.0 points on that website in three straight appearances. Both players could deliver again Thursday, as guards are getting up more shots against Real Madrid than any other club.

Fantasy Factors: Luke Sikma did not land in the section above due to the matchup, but he is still worth considering on DraftKings at an affordable $8,700. It's not advised to go with centers facing Real Madrid, but the Spanish squad is actually allowing players at that position to get up a fair amount of shots, so Ben Lammers will be in play at $7,200. On the other side, Petr Cornelie is certainly in the mix at $6,300, and you could also go with Guerschon Yabusele at $7,300. Adam Hanga is worth a long look at a meager $3,900 and you could gamble on Nigel Williams-Goss or Sergio Rodriguez, as ALBA ranks bottom-3 against guards in points, rebounds and assists.

Olympiacos Piraeus at Virtus Segafredo Bologna

Status Check: Nico Mannion (VIR), Awudu Abass (VIR), Leo Menalo (VIR)

The Breakdown: Both these clubs will be looking to get back on track after taking a loss Tuesday, and the experts expect the visitors to get back on track, as they are favored by 3.5 points. The spread suggests this will be a close contest, but the last matchup between these clubs certainly was not, as Olympiacos hung 117 points on the board and won by 46 points when these teams squared off in Round 12. Virtus has been better at home than on the road this season, but they will need to be particularly sharp Thursday, as the Greek team is a whopping 223 points better in the point differential department and also owns a 17.0-point edge in net rating. 

Best Bets for Success: Sasha Vezenkov has not been the same since injuring his thigh in late December, and his minutes could remain limited Thursday. He will be tempting, though, which his DraftKings price falling to $10,500 -- the lowest it has been since mid-October. If you want a safer option, you could go with Kostas Sloukas, who leads the league in assists and quietly ranks eighth in average index rating. No one on the Virtus roster has been tossing up big numbers regularly, but the player with the most upside is surely Milos Teodosic, who led his team in DraftKings points four times over the past six Rounds.

Fantasy Factors: It's tough to find a lot of value on either side, as outside of the top players the production has been spread out fairly evenly for both teams. We will mention Jordan Mickey, who has fallen to a meager $6,400 on DraftKings, and Semi Ojeleye is also worth considering at $7,100. No team is allowing centers to get up fewer shots than Olympiacos, so it's best to stick to the guards and forwards on the Virtus roster. Thomas Walkup and Moustapha Fall are both pretty affordable on DraftKings, with neither listed above $8,400.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Kevin O'Brien plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: kevob100, DraftKings: kevob100.
RotoWire Community
Join Our Subscriber-Only EuroLeague Chat
Chat with our writers and other RotoWire EuroLeague fans for all the pre-game info and in-game banter.
Join The Discussion
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Kevin O'Brien
Kevin mans the Packers and Brewers beats and moonlights as RotoWire's Director of Operations.
EuroLeague Primer: Round 14 - Friday
EuroLeague Primer: Round 14 - Friday
EuroLeague Picks: Best Bets for Round 14 - Friday
EuroLeague Picks: Best Bets for Round 14 - Friday
EuroLeague Primer: Round 14 - Thursday
EuroLeague Primer: Round 14 - Thursday
EuroLeague Picks: Best Bets for Round 14 - Thursday
EuroLeague Picks: Best Bets for Round 14 - Thursday
EuroLeague Fantasy Challenge Picks: Round 14
EuroLeague Fantasy Challenge Picks: Round 14
EuroLeague Primer: Round 13 - Wednesday
EuroLeague Primer: Round 13 - Wednesday