# Surviving Week 10

Last week was uneventful as the Steelers, Patriots, Chiefs and Texans all pulled out close wins, while the Packers and Titans won easily.

Let's take a look at Week 10:

Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines

Is this a spot to fade the Packers, who are 56 percent owned?

Per Vegas, the implied odds of a Packers wins/Saints loss are 19.4 percent. The odds of a Saints win/Packers loss are 8.5 percent. Divide the former by the latter, and we get 2.29. That's our risk ratio.

In our hypothetical \$10 buy-in, 100-person pool, let's assume the Saints win while the Packers lose. That means 56 people are knocked out by the Packers plus another five on other teams for a total of 61, leaving 39 people still alive. \$1000/39 = \$25.64 in equity.

If the Packers win, but Saints lose, that'll knock out 26 percent plus another five, for a total of 31 or 69 remaining. \$1000/69 = \$14.49.

The reward ratio of \$25.64 to \$14.49 is therefore 1.77.

As you can see, pivoting from the Packers to the Saints,