Surviving Week 10

Surviving Week 10

This article is part of our Survivor series.

Last week was uneventful as the Steelers, Patriots, Chiefs and Texans all pulled out close wins, while the Packers and Titans won easily. 

Let's take a look at Week 10:

TeamOpponent%Taken*Vegas ML**Vegas OddsExpected Loss
PACKERSJaguars55.90%82589.196.04
SAINTS49ers26.10%36078.265.67
RAIDERSBroncos5.40%21568.251.71
RavensPATRIOTS3.60%297.574.840.91
STEELERSBengals3.20%282.573.860.84
LIONSFootball Team2.10%16662.410.79
BuccaneersPANTHERS1.10%202.566.940.36
EaglesGIANTS0.60%16562.260.23

Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com 
** Average of the two moneylines  

Is this a spot to fade the Packers, who are 56 percent owned?

Per Vegas, the implied odds of a Packers wins/Saints loss are 19.4 percent. The odds of a Saints win/Packers loss are 8.5 percent. Divide the former by the latter, and we get 2.29. That's our risk ratio. 

In our hypothetical $10 buy-in, 100-person pool, let's assume the Saints win while the Packers lose. That means 56 people are knocked out by the Packers plus another five on other teams for a total of 61, leaving 39 people still alive. $1000/39 = $25.64 in equity. 

If the Packers win, but Saints lose, that'll knock out 26 percent plus another five, for a total of 31 or 69 remaining. $1000/69 = $14.49. 

The reward ratio of $25.64 to $14.49 is therefore 1.77. 

As you can see, pivoting from the Packers to the Saints,

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Chris Liss
Chris Liss is RotoWire's Managing Editor and Host of RotoWIre Fantasy Sports Today on Sirius XM radio.
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