Surviving Week 3

Surviving Week 3

This article is part of our Survivor series.

Last week was fairly uneventful with the big three (Buccaneers, Packers and Browns) all winning relatively easily and only about five percent of pools going down on the Seahawks and Steelers. 

Let's take a look at Week 3

TeamOpponent%Taken*Vegas ML**Vegas OddsExpected Loss
BRONCOSJets37.9%52584.006.06
PanthersTEXANS14.6%35077.783.24
BILLSFootball Team13.2%36078.262.87
CardinalsJAGUARS10.9%34077.272.48
RavensLIONS10.9%35077.782.42
BROWNSBears3.5%291.574.460.89
RAIDERSDolphins2.6%184.564.850.91
TITANSColts1.8%23069.700.55
CHIEFSChargers1.7%27573.330.45
GIANTSFalcons0.9%14559.180.37

Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com 
** Average of the two moneylines

What stands out is the Broncos are the biggest favorite, but also by far the most owned. That means we need to do some pot odds math. 

The odds of a Broncos win and say Bills loss (the next four teams are roughly equal) is 18 percent. The odds of a Bills win/Broncos loss is 12 percent. The risk ratio is therefore 1.5. 

But if the Broncos lose in your hypothetical 100-person, $10 buy-in pool, they'd take 38 people with them, leaving 62. But 12 other non-Bills owners would be projected to lose too, knocking it down to 50. So if your equity were $10 initially, it would double to $20 with only half the entrants remaining. 

If the Bills lost instead, only 13 people

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Chris Liss
Chris Liss is RotoWire's Managing Editor and Host of RotoWIre Fantasy Sports Today on Sirius XM radio.
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