Last week had one major casualty, the Vikings, taking down roughly 18 percent of pools.
Let's take a look at Week 14:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHARGERS | Giants | 32.6% | 450 | 81.82 | 5.93 |
| PACKERS | Bears | 27.5% | 600 | 85.71 | 3.93 |
| TITANS | Jaguars | 17.7% | 400 | 80.00 | 3.54 |
| BRONCOS | Lions | 7.8% | 330 | 76.74 | 1.81 |
| Seahawks | TEXANS | 6.5% | 310 | 75.61 | 1.59 |
| CHIEFS | Raiders | 3.4% | 395 | 79.80 | 0.69 |
| Saints | JETS | 1.9% | 212.5 | 68.00 | 0.61 |
| PANTHERS | Falcons | 0.5% | 130 | 56.52 | 0.22 |
| VIKINGS | Steelers | 0.4% | 155 | 60.78 | 0.16 |
| Cowboys | TEAM | 0.3% | 180 | 64.29 | 0.11 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
As always, when we get this late into the year, the percentage-owned numbers become noisier, so be sure to look at which teams are available to the remaining entries in your pool.
My Picks
1. Green Bay Packers
The Packers and Aaron Rodgers really do own the Bears, they're coming off a bye and Chicago is banged up on both sides of the ball. I give the Packers an 85 percent chance to win this game.
2. Denver Broncos
The Broncos aren't great, but their defense is solid, and they run the ball well, a good recipe for beating up on doormats. Moreover, the Lions got their first win, so the desperation factor is gone. I give the Broncos an 81 percent chance to win this game.
3. Kansas City Chiefs
The Raiders show a spark every now and then, but aside
Last week had one major casualty, the Vikings, taking down roughly 18 percent of pools.
Let's take a look at Week 14:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHARGERS | Giants | 32.6% | 450 | 81.82 | 5.93 |
| PACKERS | Bears | 27.5% | 600 | 85.71 | 3.93 |
| TITANS | Jaguars | 17.7% | 400 | 80.00 | 3.54 |
| BRONCOS | Lions | 7.8% | 330 | 76.74 | 1.81 |
| Seahawks | TEXANS | 6.5% | 310 | 75.61 | 1.59 |
| CHIEFS | Raiders | 3.4% | 395 | 79.80 | 0.69 |
| Saints | JETS | 1.9% | 212.5 | 68.00 | 0.61 |
| PANTHERS | Falcons | 0.5% | 130 | 56.52 | 0.22 |
| VIKINGS | Steelers | 0.4% | 155 | 60.78 | 0.16 |
| Cowboys | TEAM | 0.3% | 180 | 64.29 | 0.11 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
As always, when we get this late into the year, the percentage-owned numbers become noisier, so be sure to look at which teams are available to the remaining entries in your pool.
My Picks
1. Green Bay Packers
The Packers and Aaron Rodgers really do own the Bears, they're coming off a bye and Chicago is banged up on both sides of the ball. I give the Packers an 85 percent chance to win this game.
2. Denver Broncos
The Broncos aren't great, but their defense is solid, and they run the ball well, a good recipe for beating up on doormats. Moreover, the Lions got their first win, so the desperation factor is gone. I give the Broncos an 81 percent chance to win this game.
3. Kansas City Chiefs
The Raiders show a spark every now and then, but aside from the Cowboys game on Thanksgiving Day, they haven't shown up in a month and got blown out by the Chiefs in Las Vegas four weeks ago. I give the Chiefs a 79 percent chance to win this game.
4. Tennessee Titans
The Titans are a collection of no-names right now, but they're coming off the bye and well coached, while the Jaguars are a joke, especially on offense. I give the Titans a 78 percent chance to win this game.
5. Los Angeles Chargers
The Jake Fromm Giants might be the worst offense in the league, but the Giants defense is decent, the Chargers don't stop the run, and they have no home field advantage. I give the Chargers a 78 percent chance to win this game.
6. Seattle Seahawks
The Texans with Davis Mills are arguably the league's worst team, but the Seahawks have problems of their own. I give the Seahawks a 71 percent chance to win this game.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
You've almost certainly used the Bucs by now, but I like them against a Bills team that just got bludgeoned by the run game only six days earlier. I give the Buccaneers a 70 percent chance to win this game.
8. New Orleans Saints
The Saints are so banged up at virtually every position, but it's the Jets, so you can try this if you're desperate. I give the Saints a 60 percent chance to win this game.
9. Carolina Panthers
Only if you're desperate, but the Panthers are home off a bye, have a good defense and get a Falcons team that isn't strong on either side of the ball. I give the Panthers a 59 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Minnesota Vikings -- The Vikings are so banged up right now, and the Steelers are getting healthier.
Dallas Cowboys -- The Team has won three games in a row, including one over the Buccaneers, and the Cowboys aren't as good on the road.
