This article is part of our Polarizing Players series.
Christian McCaffrey broke out in 2019 with 1,965 yards and 13 touchdowns. He then followed that with 2,392 yards and 19 scores. Unfortunately, injuries forced him to miss 23 of the last 33 games. He now goes into his age-26 season as a player with elite upside along with significant risk.
Upside
McCaffrey played seven games last year, but due to injuries, he had more than 28 snaps four times. In those four games, he posted at least 119 scrimmage yards and 24.7 PPR points. As a receiver, his yards per target have increased the last three years, with a career-high 9.3 last year. His work as a receiver gives him excellent floor and ceiling potential, and as the centerpiece of the offense, he could have 400 touches. Despite two years of disappointment, his upside is being the No. 1 player in fantasy, and he also can outscore all running backs by a large margin.
Downside
Since rushing for 4.9 yards per carry in 2018 and 2019, McCaffrey has fallen to 4.2 the last two seasons. A primary reason for the decline was his underwhelming 57th percentile broken-tackle rate and 68th percentile yards-after-contact average in 2021. Injuries likely contributed at least somewhat to his recent downturn in rushing production, which could motivate the Panthers to limit his workload to keep him fresh. Although he's certain to be used heavily as a receiver, the Panthers could reduce his rushing work to keep him from breaking down. His downside still has him
Christian McCaffrey broke out in 2019 with 1,965 yards and 13 touchdowns. He then followed that with 2,392 yards and 19 scores. Unfortunately, injuries forced him to miss 23 of the last 33 games. He now goes into his age-26 season as a player with elite upside along with significant risk.
Upside
McCaffrey played seven games last year, but due to injuries, he had more than 28 snaps four times. In those four games, he posted at least 119 scrimmage yards and 24.7 PPR points. As a receiver, his yards per target have increased the last three years, with a career-high 9.3 last year. His work as a receiver gives him excellent floor and ceiling potential, and as the centerpiece of the offense, he could have 400 touches. Despite two years of disappointment, his upside is being the No. 1 player in fantasy, and he also can outscore all running backs by a large margin.
Downside
Since rushing for 4.9 yards per carry in 2018 and 2019, McCaffrey has fallen to 4.2 the last two seasons. A primary reason for the decline was his underwhelming 57th percentile broken-tackle rate and 68th percentile yards-after-contact average in 2021. Injuries likely contributed at least somewhat to his recent downturn in rushing production, which could motivate the Panthers to limit his workload to keep him fresh. Although he's certain to be used heavily as a receiver, the Panthers could reduce his rushing work to keep him from breaking down. His downside still has him finishing as a top-10 running back. However, fantasy managers must now factor in durability issues.
The Verdict
When McCaffrey was in his typical role last year, he was a high-end fantasy performer. Aside from Jonathan Taylor, every other running back has significant questions while not possessing McCaffrey's elite upside. It's justifiable to take him as early as the 1.02 pick. It's unlikely he'll fall outside the top-12 picks in drafts, so the decision is whether he's worth a first-round pick. Between his receiving ability and history of elite production, the answer is yes. However, fading him due to durability concerns is understandable, as there are fantasy options with better health history available. In my leagues, I'm betting on the injuries being bad luck, and I'll gladly take him with my first pick.
