2023 NFL Draft First Round Props and Predictions

2023 NFL Draft First Round Props and Predictions

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

NFL Draft Betting: Last-Minute NFL Draft Props To Target

Draft Day is here and that means time is running out to lock in some NFL Draft props. I've taken a look at the offerings across a few of the major sports betting apps to find the most interesting betting markets and best odds out there. Tread lightly, because this draft is being billed as the most unpredictable in recent memory, but here are the picks and props I'll be targeting for the first round. Let's have some fun.

Draft Pick Number Props

The Will Levis First Overall Saga made for an interesting couple of days leading up to the draft, but whether you got him at +4000 or +500, it wasn't a good bet. Things have settled down a bit on that front with his odds to go to the Panthers at 1.1 moving to anywhere from +800 at DraftKings to +1200 on FanDuel. We won't waste any more time on that one, so let's see what other draft position props are standing out.

C.J. Stroud Second Overall +500 at FanDuel

What if the brewing sentiments that A.) the Texans would pass on quarterback at 1.2 and B.) their alleged Levis interest are both just draft week smokescreens? There was a time not so long ago when Stroud was the favorite to go first overall. Whether or not the Texans have Stroud ranked high enough on their board to go here is a mystery, but it would make plenty of sense. It's also worth noting that Stroud just has to go No.2 overall, not specifically to Houston for this to hit. 

I wouldn't go big on this one, but it's a way of hedging against some of the riff-raff that's come through the rumor mill this week. You can get the same odds for Stroud to go No.3 overall at DraftKings if that's more your speed; Arizona is shopping that pick and someone like the Raiders or Titans could move up to nab him.

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Anthony Richardson Third Overall +1600 at FanDuel

The odds tell us to not go crazy here, but there's a way this can happen. It hinges on Arizona shipping the pick to a QB-needy team, which seems like a likely scenario tonight. And if that happens, the move-up could absolutely be for Richardson especially if two quarterbacks are off the board already.

Will Levis Fourth Overall +150 at BetMGM

While Levis going first or second overall is a bridge too far, getting him at plus money to go at four is reasonable. Indianapolis is in need of a quarterback and there's some sense that he's the target for the Colts if he's still on the board. 

Jalen Carter Fifth Overall -175 at BetMGM

It's important to line shop for this one as the odds are as juiced as -250 at some places. I'm not buying that the Seahawks are taking a quarterback at five and Carter will almost certainly still be available there. He fits a need and if Seattle really wants to invest at quarterback, it can use the 20th overall pick to make that happen.

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Christian Gonzalez Sixth Overall +750 at DraftKings

Detroit could very well be in the cornerback market with its first pick tonight and while Devon Witherspoon is the odds-on favorite (-150), the Lions could be enamored with the more toolsy Gonzalez out of Oregon. 

Position Totals

Running Backs Drafted in the First Round OVER 1.5 (-300 at DraftKings)

Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs are getting drafted tonight. The odds aren't great but this should come in.

Quarterbacks Drafted in the First Round OVER 4.5 (-180 at DraftKings)

This hinges on Hendon Hooker, but I think someone slotted in the 20s either takes him or shops the pick to someone who will.

Wide Receivers Drafted in the First Round Under 3.5 (+120 at DraftKings)

This is a deep class but not necessarily a top-heavy one. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Zay Flowers, and Jordan Addison should all come off the board tonight but once they're gone, teams could opt to wait until tomorrow to do their WR shopping. We'll be sweating this one out until the very end because KC could be in the market for one at 31.

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Position Props

First Tight End Selected: Dalton Kincaid +145 at DraftKings

Michael Mayer is the top tight end in this class and should be the first player off the board at that position. He's sitting at -180, though, and the latest intel suggests that Kincaid is in play for the Packers at 13. Either the book is smartly ignoring the noise or we're getting solid value on backing Kincaid for this prop. 

Third Quarterback Selected: Anthony Richardson +600 at DraftKings

Bryce Young seems like the only sure thing for tonight and even saying that makes me feel a little queasy. I love the odds here, and we'd only need one of Levis or Stroud to take a draft night tumble for Richardson to slot in as the third quarterback taken.

Team to Draft Player 

Team to Draft Bijan Robinson: LA Chargers +1200 or Washington Commanders +1200 (DraftKings)

The Falcons (+150) really shouldn't be targeting Robinson at eight with all the other holes on the roster, especially if there's an edge player they like at 1.8. The Eagles do have the luxury to make that pick at 10, but I'm thinking they'll circle back at 30 if Jahmyr Gibbs is still on the board. Gibbs is 10/1 to go to Philly, for what it's worth...

Washington makes sense for Robinson as Mario wrote in his three-round mock and so do the Chargers given the Austin Ekeler saga. Other teams with lower odds to take Robinson include Houston, Chicago and Dallas and I just don't see it happening with any of those three.

Team to Draft Michael Mayer: Detroit Lions +700 at DraftKings

The Lions have a pair of picks in the first round and I think tight end absolutely has to be in play for them with their second one at 18. I'm not sure he'll still be around when the Cowboys (+350) are up and it seems like Green Bay (+400) is more locked in on either Kincaid or JSN. 

Team to Draft Quentin Johnston: Kansas City Chiefs +1500 at DraftKings

This would likely nuke our Under 3.5 receivers play, but that's a fine enough compromise when this one pays out 15/1 as opposed to +120. Kansas City lost some contributors from its receiving corps this offseason, but players like Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore are well-suited to fill in the vacated slot snaps. Johnston profiles as a fit that provides another big-bodied deep threat that can play on the boundary.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
John McKechnie
John is the 2016 and 2021 FSWA College Writer of the Year winner. He is a Maryland native and graduate of the University of Georgia. He's been writing for RotoWire since 2014.
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