Philadelphia (+4.5) vs New England, 48.5 o/u – Sunday, 6:30 p.m. EST
The Story: After all the drama and excitement in the previous playoff rounds, we end up with the two No. 1 seeds in the Super Bowl anyway. Yawn. Fortunately, the Eagles are still able to fill the "plucky underdog" role in this clash thanks to Carson Wentz's injury, and Nick Foles certainly looked the part of an unlikely hero when he dismantled the Vikings. Just like Minnesota did, though, it's possible Philly peaked too early. Nothing Doug Pederson comes up with is going to surprise Bill Belichick, while the soft spot in the Eagles' defense remains the secondary – you can get away with that against the likes of Case Keenum, but now you're facing Tom Brady. What's worse, advanced stats suggest their weakest matchups come in the slot (hi, Danny Amendola!) and against TEs (oh, hello there, Gronk). All that said, New England hasn't exactly been tested yet this postseason, getting to its third Super Bowl in the last four years by beating the "glad to be here" Titans and then happily watching the Jaguars go into a shell in the second half of the AFC championship. The Eagles should put up a better fight, at least on paper, but there's always the chance they get overwhelmed by the size of the stage. After all, this is a franchise with zero rings, and one that hasn't even been to a Super Bowl
Philadelphia (+4.5) vs New England, 48.5 o/u – Sunday, 6:30 p.m. EST
The Story: After all the drama and excitement in the previous playoff rounds, we end up with the two No. 1 seeds in the Super Bowl anyway. Yawn. Fortunately, the Eagles are still able to fill the "plucky underdog" role in this clash thanks to Carson Wentz's injury, and Nick Foles certainly looked the part of an unlikely hero when he dismantled the Vikings. Just like Minnesota did, though, it's possible Philly peaked too early. Nothing Doug Pederson comes up with is going to surprise Bill Belichick, while the soft spot in the Eagles' defense remains the secondary – you can get away with that against the likes of Case Keenum, but now you're facing Tom Brady. What's worse, advanced stats suggest their weakest matchups come in the slot (hi, Danny Amendola!) and against TEs (oh, hello there, Gronk). All that said, New England hasn't exactly been tested yet this postseason, getting to its third Super Bowl in the last four years by beating the "glad to be here" Titans and then happily watching the Jaguars go into a shell in the second half of the AFC championship. The Eagles should put up a better fight, at least on paper, but there's always the chance they get overwhelmed by the size of the stage. After all, this is a franchise with zero rings, and one that hasn't even been to a Super Bowl in more a decade. Their last appearance came in 2004, when they ... oh. Oh no. They took care of the Vikings and Falcons in the NFC playoffs, only to have the Belichick/Brady Patriots win their third Super Bowl in four years at the Eagles' expense. Cue Shirley Bassey and the Propellerheads. Well, at least Deion Branch isn't around any more to break their hearts.
The Skinny:
•2017 regular-season PHI offense: 28.6 PPG (3rd), 132.2 rushing yds/gm (3rd), 247.9 passing yds/gm (14th), 36 sacks allowed (16th), 20 turnovers (T-11th)
•2017 regular-season NE offense: 28.6 PPG (2nd), 118.1 rushing yds/gm (10th), 288.7 passing yds/gm (1st), 35 sacks allowed (T-13th), 12 turnovers (2nd)
•2017 regular-season PHI defense: 18.4 PPG allowed (4th), 79.2 rushing yds/gm allowed (1st), 242.7 passing yds/gm allowed (18th), 38 sacks (T-15th), 31 turnovers (4th)
•2017 regular-season NE defense: 18.5 PPG allowed (5th), 114.8 rushing yds/gm allowed (20th), 269.9 passing yds/gm allowed (32nd), 42 sacks (T-7th), 18 turnovers (25th)
•2017 regular-season net QB rating: PHI, plus 18.1 (5th); NE, plus 13.1 (10th)
•Key injuries, PHI: none; NE: none
•Weather forecast: indoors
The Scoop: Jay Ajayi gains 70 combined yards, while Corey Clement catches a TD pass. Foles throws for 280 yards and a second score to Alshon Jeffery. Dion Lewis picks up 80 combined yards and a touchdown. Brady locks up yet another SBMVP trophy, throwing for 290 yards and three TDs, hitting Rob Gronkowski twice and Brandin Cooks once. Patriots, 31-20
2017 playoff record: 5-5, 4-6 ATS, 5-5 o/u
2017 regular-season record: 164-92, 111-131-14 ATS, 114-138-4 o/u
2016 regular-season record: 155-99-2, 110-136-10 ATS, 139-112-5 o/u
2015 regular-season record: 157-99, 137-111-8 ATS
