NFL Odds: Line Movement for NFL Week 5

NFL Line Movement: NFL Week 5

The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14, and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it warrants significant attention. 

On the totals side, the key numbers are 41, 43, 37, 44, 51, 33, 47.  

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NFL Week 5 Odds (Opening/Current) 

Week 5 NFL Lines 

• San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (Rams -1.5 O/U 47.5) / (Rams -6.5 O/U 46.5)
• Minnesota Vikings vs Cleveland Browns (Vikings -7.0 O/U 41.5) / (Vikings -3.5 O/U 36.5)
• Miami Dolphins at Carolina Panthers (Dolphins -1.5 O/U 46.5) / (Dolphins -1.5 O/U 44.5)
• Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts (Colts -1.5 O/U 44.5) / (Colts -7.0 O/U 48.0)
• Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles (Eagles -4.5 O/U 45.5) / (Eagles -4.0 O/U 43.5)
• Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (Ravens -7.5 O/U 47.5) / (Ravens +1.5 O/U 43.0)
• Dallas Cowboys at New York Jets (Cowboys -1.5 O/U 44.5) / (Cowboys -2.5 O/U 46.5)
• New York Giants at New Orleans Saints (Giants -1.5 O/U 42.5) / (Saints -1.5 O/U 40.5)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks (Bucs -1.5 O/U 47.5) / (Seahawks -3.5 O/U 44.5)
• Tennessee Titans at Arizona Cardinals (Cardinals -5.5 O/U 46.5) / (Cardinals -7.5 O/U 41.5)
• Washington Commanders at Los Angeles Chargers (Chargers -2.5 O/U 47.5) / (Chargers -2.5 O/U 48.0)
• Detroit Lions at Cincinnati Bengals (Lions -1.5 O/U 50.5) / (Lions -10.5 O/U 49.5)
• New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (Bills -8.5 O/U 46.5) / (Bills -7.5 O/U 49.5)
• Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars (Chiefs -4.5 O/U 47.5) / (Chiefs -3.5 O/U 45.5)

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NFL Week 5 Key Injury News

QB - Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels

RB - Austin Ekeler, Joe Mixon, Tyrone Tracy, Najee Harris

WR - Malik Nabers, Ricky Pearsall, Darnell Mooney, Xavier Legette, Mike Evans 

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NFL Week 5 Odds Observations

• The highest spreads are Cardinals -7.5 vs Titans, Lions -10.5 vs Bengals, Bills -7.5 vs Patriots 
• The lowest spreads are Saints -1.0 vs Giants, Texans -1.0 @ Ravens, Dolphins -1.0 @ Panthers
• The highest total game is Patriots/Bills 50.5; the lowest total is Vikings/Browns 36.5    
• There are five road favorites in Week 5
• There is a heavy concentration of totals between 43.5-46.0 points
• The highest team totals are Colts, Rams, Lions, Cardinals, Bills 
• The lowest team totals are Titans, Browns, Vikings, Ravens, Giants, Broncos

NFL Week 5 Line Movement

A quarterback is the only position that can significantly move an NFL point spread, and a top-tier QB can be worth up to seven or more points. For all other positions, the impact is minimal and usually less than a single point, unless multiple players on the same unit are injured. When a unit has multiple starters out, it is often overlooked in the handicapping world. OL, DL, secondary, and WR are the units that are impacted the most. 

Detroit Lions at Cincinnati Bengals 

The Bengals continue to struggle in Joe Burrow's absence, having been blown out again Monday night against the Broncos.

While the Bengals quarterback situation is the biggest reason for this dramatic line move in favor of the Lions, the Bengals defense is looking like one of the worst in the league. That's trouble when the Lions offense is officially rolling now.

The total has only moved down 1 point from 50.5 to 49.5, which shows how much money is behind the Lions. 

It is hard to lay more than a touchdown on the road in the NFL, no matter how bad a team is playing. We just saw where the Giants got an outright home win as a 6-point underdog with a rookie quarterback. 

Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts

There are no quarterback injuries in this game contributing to the line movement, but the Colts' hot start has pushed this from the opening line of Colts -1.5 all the way up to Colts -7.0. While the Colts have been playing great football, the Raiders have been competitive and this number just feels a bit high. 

The total has also gone up 3.5 points from 45.0 to 48.0, which is significant because 47 and 48 are key numbers in the NFL. (7th and 9th most common total points in a game). 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks 

Both of these teams have gotten off to strong starts, but the Seahawks' defense has really impressed under second-year head coach Mike McDonald. The fact that this line has moved 5 points in favor of Seattle shows how strong of a power rating they have in betting circles. 

The Bucs opened as -1.5 road favorites, which seemed high at the time. I would have thought maybe PICK or even Seattle -1.0. But this line has not only crossed over 0, but it has crossed over 3 as well. 

The total opened 47.5 and has dropped to 44.5, which again comes down to the strength of the Seahawks' defense.  Tampa Bay is banged up on offense, too, as it's already without Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan, and now it appears Bucky Irving's status is in question.

Tennessee Titans at Arizona Cardinals

There are three main categories of line moves - quarterback change, a team significantly outperforming expectations, and a team significantly underperforming expectations. The Titans fall into the last category has they are now power ranked as the worst team in the NFL after being shutout 26-0 by the Texans. 

The Cardinals have played a very weak schedule, and the only reason they would not cover this number is a lack of motivation.

The Cardinals opened as -5.5 home favorites which looked to be about right, but Titans have been so bad this game reopened -7.5 and immediately was moved to -8.5, -9.0, and -9.5. To illustrate the low power rating of the Titans, this total initially opened at 46.5 and subsequently dropped to 42, then to 41, and finally bottomed out at 40.5. It has since gone back up to 41.5. 

Cleveland Browns vs Minnesota Vikings

A combination of backup quarterback Carson Wentz, the poor Browns offense, but strong defense has moved this line from Vikings -7.0 to Vikings -3.5. But the total has really crashed going from an already low 41.5 all the way down to 36.5. This game is also being played overseas, which is contributing to the total dropping.   

Lastly, the Browns giving rookie Dillon Gabriel his first start against an elite defense underscores how low-scoring the books expect this one to be.

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens

The Lamar Jackson injury has moved this line from Ravens -7.5 to Texans -1.0. Jackson's injury has him considered week to week, and leaves his status in doubt as of Wednesday. The Ravens have a litany of other key injuries on defense and even on the offensive line with Ronnie Stanley battling an ankle injury.